Model output discussion - into 2018

[bluearmy]

The eps are pretty good re the op - now that can happen from time to time so it would be prudent to wait for the 00z before digging out the salopettes 

extended maintains low anomolys (heights and slp) to our south - how the lw trough navigates from the n Atlantic to the med will be the question .......

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are pretty good re the op - now that can happen from time to time so it would be prudent to wait for the 00z before digging out the salopettes 

extended maintains low anomolys (heights and slp) to our south - how the lw trough navigates from the n Atlantic to the med will be the question .......

Sounds good, I think we can be pretty sure of a cold weekend but still way to early to call beyond that - even if the METO are changing their wording for the better. This time tomorrow we may still be in the same place I guess, but hopefully more cross model agreement on some heights establishing to our NE beyond the weekend.  What would be great to see is a weakening of Atlantic strength , the ECM certainly started that ball rolling.

[phil nw.]

Two decent 850 means at t144hrs 

the return of cold from the north on target still for the end of week.

ECM op would be well on the way to a proper easterly with that sharper dig se of the Atlantic trough around days 8/9.

Looking at the mean charts  for 9th jan compared to yesterday's 12z -a move in the right direction-today's on the right

 

also the Scandinavian ridge sharper and further north and we start to see the possibility of Siberian cold edging this way..Let's see now if future runs  will build on this so it becomes a longer cold spell.

Whatever comes weatherwise in January i wish everyone a very Happy New Year.

 

[Penrith Snow]

Will all the negative teleconections for UK cold surely theECM can't be correct?

If after all the recent MRFs we end up with a cold, easterly January I will never take notice of 'background' signals again!

To be honest I am dubious about all these teleconections and background signals, most of which didn't exist back in the 1970's, in 1979 a MJO was something you ordered with a Spanish Tapas!

Andy

[Newberryone]

56 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

New years eve, the best! not around then, but it looks legendary!

Fortunately I was around and if my memory serves me correctly this setup gave this part of Ireland an appreciable fall of snow. Fond memories of waking up and opening the bedroom curtains and seeing the garden hedges weighed down with snow. Hopefully any potential wintry spell will now gain momentum in the coming days and deliver what most coldies crave 

[bluearmy]

Just to say that there is little sign that the Atlantic will lessen its strength in the extended period - but with the help of the upper Scandi ridge we could well see it deflected in a sustained fashion to our south - the mean jet at day 10 looks impressive  

also, three wave hemispheric pattern at same timescale 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Will all the negative teleconections for UK cold surely theECM can't be correct?

If after all the recent MRFs we end up with a cold, easterly January I will never take notice of 'background' signals again!

To be honest I am dubious about all these teleconections and background signals, most of which didn't exist back in the 1970's, in 1979 a MJO was something you ordered with a Spanish Tapas!

Andy

Of course they existed andy - we just didn’t realise .......

 

[BleakMidwinter]

On 30/12/2017 at 20:18, knocker said:

Then the thread title is incorrect. And it is not a case of bog standard it is a matter of attempting to get a handle on the current evolution of the models without being being nonsensically biased. If that leads to snow and ice fine, if not tough but what goes on in between should not just be ignored. Irrespective if the majority on here wish it to be.

Please do continue to discuss the models, not solely the cold and snow modelling. 

I can't learn if I only read one part of the models discussed. Like trying to work out the sound of a symphony when you only hear the clarinet and tuba. 

[Froze were the Days]

58 minutes ago, TEITS said:

See my post from this morning because the ECM 12Z is exactly what I was referring to when the 0Z ECM came out.

I have no interest in the E,ly shown for this weekend because I don't think it will deliver except for N Scotland.. Beyond is a different matter entirely!

 

I know it's only CFS v2 1 monthly runs but over the last couple of days I've seen 2 runs which suggests a minor easterly (with rather poor uppers) followed just after mid-month by a much more substantial block to the north east and 'real cold' - so something to keep an eye on.

[bluearmy]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

I know it's only CFS v2 1 monthly runs but over the last couple of days I've seen 2 runs which suggests a minor easterly (with rather poor uppers) followed just after mid-month by a much more substantial block to the north east and 'real cold' - so something to keep an eye on.

How many have you seen that didn’t ? 

I guess the fact that cfsv2 isn’t churning out warm run after warm run is notable enough though ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I know it's only CFS v2 1 monthly runs but over the last couple of days I've seen 2 runs which suggests a minor easterly (with rather poor uppers) followed just after mid-month by a much more substantial block to the north east and 'real cold' - so something to keep an eye on.

Yes, there was a stonking -ve uppers anomaly over us and to the South of us on a recent run.

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How many have you seen that didn’t ? 

I guess the fact that cfsv2 isn’t churning out warm run after warm run is notable enough though ! 

Yes going by a majority of it's runs for December (back in November) certainly didn't pick out the northerly and subsequent trough disruption - as one would guess a lot of bias towards continuous Atlantic depressions moving east to west as it has done on 90% of the runs for January and early February. Noted the height rises to the NE only of the last few days on 2 runs - so that really is saying something for cfsV2 :

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Loving the Ecm 12z, becomes colder and blockier than the 00z..☺?

the blockier the better

[tinybill]

34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Sounds good, I think we can be pretty sure of a cold weekend but still way to early to call beyond that - even if the METO are changing their wording for the better. This time tomorrow we may still be in the same place I guess, but hopefully more cross model agreement on some heights establishing to our NE beyond the weekend.  What would be great to see is a weakening of Atlantic strength , the ECM certainly started that ball rolling.

lets  see what  the pub run like after a few new  years  drinks!!!

[Scandinavian High.]

BBC long range on BBC said  significant snow fall as weather fronts try and come in from west looking good...

[Purga]

'Mogreps for Sunday 7 Jan has 14 easterlies 2 anticyclonic and 1 NW'

[Matthew.]

Just had a late look at the ecm and my oh my is winter coming? Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. Just a thought but could this east Pacifica La Niña be helping the meridional jet along with low solar. Who knows?

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, Fozfoster said:

Out to the 10/01/2018

Ooh 0.04 cm brilliant

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Purga said:

'Mogreps for Sunday 7 Jan has 14 easterlies 2 anticyclonic and 1 NW'

How do you know that information? 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, to much attention to the ECM at the later stages, how precious is a real true Scandinavian high ,how many times as the Scandinavian high produced the goods in the last thirty years Answers on a postcard please....

[SLEETY]

57 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Will all the negative teleconections for UK cold surely theECM can't be correct?

If after all the recent MRFs we end up with a cold, easterly January I will never take notice of 'background' signals again!

To be honest I am dubious about all these teleconections and background signals, most of which didn't exist back in the 1970's, in 1979 a MJO was something you ordered with a Spanish Tapas!

Andy

Thing is the weather is constantly moving it’s never stactic,that’s why I think it’s impossible to make any long range forecast  by whatever means beyond 10 days.This forecast from catacol,who is an excellent poster, posted only 3 days ago,is already looking bust.

”

My take  would be that any NWP output pointing to blocking to the north in the next week to 10 days is ambitious and likely to be blown away by vortex strength.Angle of the jet may possibly produce some more transient events and snow for the usual high ground locations-but otherwise a westerly regime,stormy at times.” 

Edited December 31, 2017 by SLEETY

[Fozfoster]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Ooh 0.04 cm brilliant

Yeah easterlies only bring snow for us midlanders if it’s a breakdown scenario 

[78/79]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

New years eve, the best! not around then, but it looks legendary!

I8 years old then , in the pub at 7pm, just started to snow, a strong E/NE wind, biting cold. Turned out at 0100, blowing a blizzard, drifting over the hedge rows.

[SMU]

This is why the ECM control is colder - the initial flow is more NE not Easterly

[booferking]

I said just before Christmas we will get a 80s style Easterly my word has the EC took a step in the right direction there you go i just jinxed myself.

Happy New Year to all with plenty of snow.