Model output discussion - into 2018

[Fozfoster]

Out to the 10/01/2018

[SMU]

2 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Steve

Any chance of putting a post together explaining this tweet from IF and matching its content to what you are seeing in the models. 

Fergie

‘Yup. The net outcome, as UKMO explain well, is how major anticylonic flow by Fri across NE Russia leads to a shift of stratospheric polar vortex position to the SSE, resulting in a marked reconfiguration in the N hemispheric pattern.’

Cheers 

Hi mate

The Tweet relating to the above is summarising a pattern shift whereby there is a substantial Scandi block setting up ( also running in tandem with the -EPO Pacific ridge 

its a 2 wave pattern allowing for the PV to become segmented as opposed to uniform

The 10mb starts round but does become elongated

allowing ridging up through the middle

The Zonal mean chart showing a less aggressive stratosphere with the CFS runs all dropping a SSW through late Jan

S

[A Frayed Knot]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

New years eve, the best! not around then, but it looks legendary!

Remember it well ' Heavy snow drifts ,blizzards and freezing .

[Summer Sun]

14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Wouldn't normally ask....Do you have a LINK PLEASE

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature.html

Under Select parameter locate Snow depth (in)

[iand61]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

New years eve, the best! not around then, but it looks legendary!

I was around and in my part of world, up in The Pennines it was lengendary.

the finest powdery snow that piled high at the front and back door.

the best part though is that it marked the beginning of what was probably the last truly severe winter.

[Frosty.]

Potentially very exciting times ahead for coldies if the Ecm 12z is anything to go by, significant upgrade from the 00z which showed the atlantic bulldozing through a flimsy block, this run shows a much stronger block, hoping for another cold spell in the new year, perhaps the best one yet!..here's hoping

[Day 10]

Can't post charts now back on phone. From what I can see, the potential for upgrades have already begun and a fitting way for the ECM to sign off the year! With that I wish you all a happy new year, now i'm off to get drunk! Here's to a UK wide cold & snowy Jan, Cheers 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

[bluearmy]

Not surprised to see the 12z ec op trend that way, given that the majority of clusters were more amplified days 7/8 but it’s still an uncertain evolution - what really matters is the Atlantic approaching day 10 - to have it undercut into Europe to the south will make this become a proper cold spell. The ec op manages to give us WAA to keep the Scandi ridge in Scandi and then begins an undercut at the end 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

Look again gavin

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

Does it ? 

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

South Easterly

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

Low off SW England, so would be an Ely or SEly.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Look again gavin

Whoops yes southeasterly

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

Def South Easterly bud.

[mulzy]

By 156 hrs, the eps mean shows the whole country in at least -3 uppers with an easterly flow.  Control is similar but the uppers are at least -6 across the whole country.

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks like it has a northwesterly?

Hi I could be wrong with this one looks to  me low south west / winds coming from a south south easterly 

[TEITS]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Potentially very exciting times ahead for coldies if the Ecm 12z is anything to go by, significant upgrade from the 00z which showed the atlantic bulldozing through a flimsy block, this run shows a much stronger block, hoping for another cold spell in the new year, perhaps the best one yet!..here's hoping

See my post from this morning because the ECM 12Z is exactly what I was referring to when the 0Z ECM came out.

I have no interest in the E,ly shown for this weekend because I don't think it will deliver except for N Scotland.. Beyond is a different matter entirely!

 

[MR EXTREMES]

33 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

now THAT is much better. it has a better chance of staying in situ and building in strength.

Absolutely blinding run.

Exactly how I see things progressing and northern blocking becoming a frequent visitor.

 

[bobbydog]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Potentially very exciting times ahead for coldies if the Ecm 12z is anything to go by, significant upgrade from the 00z which showed the atlantic bulldozing through a flimsy block, this run shows a much stronger block, hoping for another cold spell in the new year, perhaps the best one yet!..here's hoping

[A Frayed Knot]

6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

have no interest in the E,ly shown for this weekend because I don't think it will deliver except for N Scotland

Well it was just mentioned on Countryfile weather for the week ahead .

[Purga]

No wonder UKMO are talking about a 'very cold' start to next week

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM mean backing the op for an easterly

[Frosty.]

There are growing signs that there will be height rises to the n / ne which will hopefully become strong enough to really mess up the usual atlantic dross...reasons for coldies to be positive about the latest developments?..plenty!!

[Penrith Snow]

56 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

New years eve, the best! not around then, but it looks legendary!

Oh yes, this was a beauty, nationwide freeze with the worst conditions south of the M4, I was in Birmingham at the time and that spell and the winter that followed was Epic.

Andy