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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


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I'm sorry but teleconnections are useful for both medium and long range forecasting and over a long period of time those using how the tropical momentum anomalies spread to the poles and slow down/ sp

Richard been enjoying your posts and I concur with many of your thoughts. Definitely an upgrade of potential and in such neartime. Merry Christmas to you and ALL members and visitors. W

It really is sad when a weather forum with enthusiastic folk, most wanting cold, quite often end up bickering with one another. No one, and I mean no one, person amateur or professional, is corre

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10 minutes ago, swfc said:

It was in reference to discussing the models going forward.i thought snow , depths ,areas were discussed in the regional thread but I bow to your experience ete

Oh I see what you mean  - I think xmas day is different !

 

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GFS 12z still brings a risk of snow across Wales including the south coast. Also to note, sea temperatures in much of the Bristol Channel are currently lower than they've been for several years at this time of year (they're more like we'd expect to see from the end of January through February) this doesn't guarantee snow but if we don't get any on Wednesday then it won't be because the sea is too mild. 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as per sodding usual, the Triangle of Doom sits proudly alone in the land where snowflakes seldom tread!:wallbash::shok:

The only model that should be followed re snow depth is a UK one, the others appear to miss the differemt parameters required and imagine we are a continental land mass. The met office’s 1 to 2 cm is on the mark with Peak District and a few lucky places with Welsh mountains and places with elevation further south getting something notable. My old home in Glossop looks okay for a few inches, I might go back for the first time in years!

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Hope you are all non-ineberated  (if you are then get going?)..

This xmas evenings ecm 12z-WILL- Have defining factors..

So 24/48hrs snaps will be very worthy if your looking for a seasonal suprise!

On the large window its an' amplification drama-queen @times.

But has astute; dynamics for resolve in such matters...-swerving- means ens- and exacting on raw-ops- decipher....

Edit; i will try without'bias' on pin'point guidance of the evolving situ...

Although i look atm primmed for round2 of snow accums??...

Over to the euro-com..

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Evening,

I have just worked out how to change my profile, but now feel all dressed up with nowhere to go.?

The models have an ominous ring to them with FI seemingly only just this side of infinity. But there are upsides: it’s still only December, it’s not 2015, and the month will run out close to the mean temp. A normal winter, far better in my view than some of the last few. A normal winter springs a few surprises and can include a decent easterly, more often in the second half in my experience.

Enough said. Probably time for a bout of festive amnesia. Good tidings to you all. ?

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14 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

Evening,

The models have an ominous ring to them with FI seemingly only just this side of infinity.

 

Not to me I'd prefer deep cold but in all honesty the runs give everybody a bit of what they like. Worst things are Barlett High Euro high or a warm high stuck over us giving us mild gray rubbish. All of those features are slugs that refuse to move.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated 36

D101334D-834C-4B4E-936F-5B21B747051C.thumb.png.99ae20ed5df2138673108bccb37db19b.png

Not only is that similar to the last run albeit slightly further south but it also gives the home counties quite a bit of snowfall!!as it stand midlands wales and north london look good!!

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated 36

D101334D-834C-4B4E-936F-5B21B747051C.thumb.png.99ae20ed5df2138673108bccb37db19b.png

Not quite sure where that's come from Steve but looks very overplayed

The 12z that I can see over on Weather.us is shown below:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_51_4855_108.thumb.png.ce9dbed75c1153c048596a7a4a1deddd.png

Still similar zones but a more realistic look in terms of totals potentially (probably still a tad overdone)

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6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Not quite sure where that's come from Steve but looks very overplayed

The 12z that I can see over on Weather.us is shown below:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_51_4855_108.thumb.png.ce9dbed75c1153c048596a7a4a1deddd.png

Still similar zones but a more realistic look in terms of totals potentially (probably still a tad overdone)

The one steve posted is in inches and the one you posted was in cms!!maybe thats the reason why!!

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4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Not quite sure where that's come from Steve but looks very overplayed

The 12z that I can see over on Weather.us is shown below:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_51_4855_108.thumb.png.ce9dbed75c1153c048596a7a4a1deddd.png

Still similar zones but a more realistic look in terms of totals potentially (probably still a tad overdone)

Steve's is for first thing in the morning - yours later on in the day. :)

 

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1 minute ago, stratty said:

Steve's is for first thing in the morning - yours later on in the day. :)

 

Yep I thought of that, but 6am view:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_42_4855_108.thumb.png.40bdabc0c1e07742a21761f5239f184e.png

Very odd!

@shaky unfortunately given that 1 inch ~ 2.5cms, those charts still look at odds with one another!

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5 minutes ago, snowking said:

Yep I thought of that, but 6am view:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_42_4855_108.thumb.png.40bdabc0c1e07742a21761f5239f184e.png

Very odd!

@shaky unfortunately given that 1 inch ~ 2.5cms, those charts still look at odds with one another!

Snowking am not sure whether it was you or someone else on the forum that posted an accumalation chart from the last slider but it was different to the one above and it actually gave the figures in cms widely and the deeper the snowfall the more white there was on the map!!am sure it was an ecm snow map!!

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Southwards tracking is the order of the day..

And i have purpose' refrained from both accu-charts and 850-marginal interp...

There looks to be deposits that even met-0' are of non exact so again reckon ;the nowcast fortunes.

...

Backing off and evaluation of the northetn hem- splits/snaps...

Its so on the edge its bizzare..

Us-trough/and punching at the pole is so fickle its as wobbly as a weeble..

And we COULD; find ourselves in a outward looking glass of definate colder infer via penninsula^/russian pump..

With an' exaction of heights and swing @scandi

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18 minutes ago, booferking said:

80s style Easterly in Jan is coming i can feel it this winter is different from the last few.:)

No real signs of the beast but yes it could be lurking for about 19 th of January,in the meantime happy new year to one and all . ( must stop drinking- New Years resolution).

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Just looking though the Ecm 12z shows more cold days / nights than mild so that's something worth celebrating at least!:drinks::drunk-emoji::santa-emoji:..whether that's due to lack of balloon data i don't know but I'll take it!:D

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19 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Downgrade from the BBC for here. Gone from heavy snow for 10 hours to sleet. ?

BBC (met) raw data not looking to bad for the higher parts of Gloucestershire, it's a. given its not everyone's cup of tea but does highlight the slight southerly adjustment and potential for those in other areas further south 

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