Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here. 
For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Better 6z :)

1040mb high over scandy !!

I'll see your 1040mb high and raise it to 1045mb!

gfsnh-0-210.png?6

Good run for the north but no real cold for the southern half yet.  No point getting hung up on details at this range but (here come's the cliche), the 'trend is our friend'

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not being serious (well only a bit) - just making a general point that even if we do draw an easterly flow for a few days, there is no certainty that it will pack any real punch. Not that it needs to if there are fronts approaching from the west but a convective easterly will probably require a decent scandi ridge that survives a few days to advect deep cold around the back - most output that build a scandi high sinks it se into Russia drawing in a sou'easter which would obviously be surface cold. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow the uk gets a half decent easterly and the 850s are better in a north westerly in the north Atlantic:rofl:

Still its a better starting point I guess

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 06z evolution is spot on I believe a sliding system day 9/10 ish

all we need is better curvature of the CAA through scandi - similar to the GEM

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so sure why there is so much negativity this morning following one poor run. The overall suggestion by the models still seems to be one that its going to get colder later next week, and the models are still playing with just how cold and for how long. I fully expect the models to more generally produce some exciting output very soon, just think that on this occasion on assessment of the overall evaluations being shown for next week, that an easterly/North easterly is the most likely eventual outcome.    

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Note that whilst the detail is impossible to pin down, this run is much more credible than the 00z op by day 9/10 as it sits pretty well in the gefs anomoly 

IMG_0715.thumb.PNG.58239509e9548eb2a2fe1f89e0ce5b03.PNG  IMG_0716.thumb.PNG.17cdb594e8ccb4f475d77361c1dc52a1.PNG

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An Easterly next weekend looks possible with the colder air to the North. Lots of mobile fast moving fronts pushing through next week, With gales and heavy rain for most driven by an extreamly powerful jet steam over the UK. Lots to keep tabs on.. Into the depths of the run, And Pm air tends to be winning out with cold blasts from the N/W.

viewimage-16.thumb.png.b9d8e28d771ae0c2fcf84169dfd9b2eb.pngviewimage-35.thumb.png.0c8651082867c4b42584d38de7ec140f.pngviewimage-33.thumb.png.c26914950043a8000a9f8423f318b2b5.pngviewimage-13.thumb.png.bece8f7a3621a6f52e1d696acd482b9f.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The eps clusters are plentiful and reveal Shannon in all her glory ........ brief scan reveals more lean towards the gefs solution than the raw mean/anomoly shows days 8/10. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z could well be on the colder side of the ENS but with some support I’d imagine 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oodles of potential but nothing definite, apart from our being to the north of the (850hPa) 0C isotherm, for almost the entire run...a great run for the Scottish ski industry?

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yeah - could see a warm easterly shortly !!!

This fixation with the 850hPa / surface temps on charts 10 days away is, I think, a case of straining at gnats and swallowing camels. The key thing with medium range charts is, imho, the evolution.

I'm excited by the prospective evolution and development. I particularly like the way a high is developing over Svalbard: the holy grail of cold weather.

It's also an example of how a violent Atlantic can move things around in our favour. This chart is actually the precursor to the height rises:

5a47715bcaf9f_ScreenShot2017-12-30at10_54_24.thumb.png.6bfd65ad46eea14aa6e66580e22b4431.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An Amber warning out for Dylan tomorow

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Storm Dylan is expected to develop in the east Atlantic on Saturday night then track northeastwards close to Northern Ireland and into Scotland on New Years Eve. This will bring some very strong winds to these areas with gusts of 55-65 mph expected for many parts and a short period of gusts of 70-80 mph for some places. The winds will ease from the west as the low continues to move northeast, winds easing down in the early afternoon.

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_5.thumb.png.64c2844693aa2c2df74d6b5b61b7a23d.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed the evolution on the 06z is imo pretty plausible even to the point where the Scandi High doesn’t doninate for very long.  A very good run, I concur.

Details to vary but I think we are getting there.

 

BFTP

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very pleasing GFS6Z- there will be wintry opportunities down the line if this is the correct evolution.

Fingers crossed for some support from the ens.

Just need EC det to show something similar!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very pleasing GFS6Z- there will be wintry opportunities down the line if this is the correct evolution.

Fingers crossed for some support from the ens.

Just need EC det to show something similar!!

but it was supported by the ens ?

and I would prefer to see the ens stay with continuity whilst ec det is flitting about days 8/10. If ec det fixes on a solution then I'm rethinking 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

but it was supported by the ens ?

and I would prefer to see the ens stay with continuity whilst ec det is flitting about days 8/10. If ec det fixes on a solution then I'm rethinking 

Which ENS ??? The run is still coming out ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

but it was supported by the ens ?

and I would prefer to see the ens stay with continuity whilst ec det is flitting about days 8/10. If ec det fixes on a solution then I'm rethinking 

The ECM ens don't look quite as good as the 12z in London graph form, Not as many go between 0 and -5c as night time minimums in the 10-15d range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM ens don't look quite as good as the 12z in London graph form, Not as many go between 0 and -5c as night time minimums in the 10-15d range.

I haven't seen the EC ens- the GFS looks a little underwhelming south of manchester so perhaps they will be along the lines of GFS6Z..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just putting the potential mini easterly to one side (certainly not a given though), the first half of January at least is shaping up to be very unsettled. Are we about to pay for the dry Autumn I wonder? 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EC det was pretty much a mild outlier or certainly one of the very mildest options between the 5th and the 7th :)

It might be of concern that the control was also one of the milder options..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Locking this one now, new thread open in a minute.

New thread here:

Plus new short-range thread:

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×