Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[Man With Beard]

ECM now develops a channel low for Boxing Day and has a snow event for central southern England (not coasts) late Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS not entirely different but slightly further north.

[Hotspur62]

Been enjoying following this thread most of this year but enjoying winter as well as summer take a greater interest from mid november.Winter has got off to a fairly good start in the UK in terms of cold which rhe models picked up fairly well and i think they picked up general signs that things will turn milder which they are now.I have just looked through GFS 00z run and whilst you should never take a run in isolation i have to say comparing it to yesterdays 00z the theme is generally mild with a few cool pm shots with snow limited to high ground in the UK imo.I think the problem if you are of a colder persuasion is that the US is going into the freezer atm and this looks to last a good 2-3 weeks.Result is sadly systems running off Eastern Seaboard and firing of the jet which wont allow any significant blocking to form over Greenland imo-we have more chance of a scandi block which as others have said is very unlikely.!!

With all the above said everything is not lost but we have to be realistic and say there will be no significant cold spell for our shores for next 2-3 weeks which i know the vast majority are looking for on this thread.Those that havent done so, read Ianpennell on another thread.I hope his thoughts come true re end off Jan/Feb. TBH if you offered me a 2 week cold spell to give UK lots of snow and cold with 10 weeks of mild i would take it every time.I hope this isnt the 4th consecutive winter down here in the SE that has failed to provide a significent snowfall of more than 2cms!!

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM now develops a channel low for Boxing Day and has a snow event for central southern England (not coasts) late Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS not entirely different but slightly further north.

True 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM now develops a channel low for Boxing Day and has a snow event for central southern England (not coasts) late Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS not entirely different but slightly further north.

UKMO is also a bit further north too.

[snowfish1]

37 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Been enjoying following this thread most of this year but enjoying winter as well as summer take a greater interest from mid november.Winter has got off to a fairly good start in the UK in terms of cold which rhe models picked up fairly well and i think they picked up general signs that things will turn milder which they are now.I have just looked through GFS 00z run and whilst you should never take a run in isolation i have to say comparing it to yesterdays 00z the theme is generally mild with a few cool pm shots with snow limited to high ground in the UK imo.I think the problem if you are of a colder persuasion is that the US is going into the freezer atm and this looks to last a good 2-3 weeks.Result is sadly systems running off Eastern Seaboard and firing of the jet which wont allow any significant blocking to form over Greenland imo-we have more chance of a scandi block which as others have said is very unlikely.!!

With all the above said everything is not lost but we have to be realistic and say there will be no significant cold spell for our shores for next 2-3 weeks which i know the vast majority are looking for on this thread.Those that havent done so, read Ianpennell on another thread.I hope his thoughts come true re end off Jan/Feb. TBH if you offered me a 2 week cold spell to give UK lots of snow and cold with 10 weeks of mild i would take it every time.I hope this isnt the 4th consecutive winter down here in the SE that has failed to provide a significent snowfall of more than 2cms!!

The latest gfs run would seem to suggest so for the immediate term

[Duane S.]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are zonal rubbish.

Really???

Of course there are plenty of more zonal members (when isn't that the case) and clearly these aren't all necessarily cold for us charts, but the theme of a Scandinavian high evolving is still very much present.

[Tim Bland]

55 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM now develops a channel low for Boxing Day and has a snow event for central southern England (not coasts) late Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS not entirely different but slightly further north.

It gives 6” for central southern areas! Slider part 2 coming up I feel! 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Really???

 

Of course there are plenty of more zonal members (when isn't that the case) and clearly these aren't all necessarily cold for us charts, but the theme of a Scandinavian high evolving is still very much present.

I thought the charts were miles better for scandi high's the other week tbh, there's only a couple that would deliver for us, d15 mean on eps now showing -ve heights to the north and a great big Bartlett.

[bluearmy]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is also a bit further north too.

the ec control was marginally south of the op though the ens don't see this feature in that position as yet (checking out the mean snow chart) 

The latest T84 fax has the system approaching sw Ireland about 100 miles north of the ecm op.  The ecm op showing signs of elongating the low in a similar way to 'slidergate' the other week!  The 12z output is going to be interesting to see where the envelope on this thing is. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I thought the charts were miles better for scandi high's the other week tbh, there's only a couple that would deliver for us, d15 mean on eps now showing -ve heights to the north and a great big Bartlett.

Forget scandi highs - the trend on the eps (and gefs tbh) is raising heights over Europe as week 2 progresses although the gefs are still clearly remain more interested in general height rises to our east/northeast than the eps. got to be right eventually! 

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I thought the charts were miles better for scandi high's the other week tbh, there's only a couple that would deliver for us, d15 mean on eps now showing -ve heights to the north and a great big Bartlett.

I'd agree they were better the other week but after that was dropped they have slowly been creeping back in at a new later timeframe.

I guess we will know in the not too distant future whether this is another false dawn or it has some legs.

EPS v GEFS on that one!

 

[shaky]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is also a bit further north too.

You are right though midlands is the jackpot area for snow this morning buddy!!seems to be playing out like the last slider lol!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has a big area of low pressure to our west giving most parts rain and wind at times

Edited December 23, 2017 by Summer Sun

[chris55]

Well slidergate part two is something to keep an eye on over the coming days, a little bit of interest to keep us coldies engaged over the xmas period. 

Probably slighty more marginal than slidergate part one but snow is a possibility.

ECM 72-96 shows the track with the litttle wedge just ahead of the incoming and developing trough. A complex set up. Hopefully enough cold air can draw down from the north, courtesy of the shallow Greenland high, and we can avoid to much milder air being mixed in as the trough develops.

72

 

96

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The problem is, it's fleeting cold, nothing really sustained at all, any snow away from the north won't last 5 minutes. I tend not to like the setup of back edge cold because it's easily pushed away. Just like the GFS shows you get the cold air pulled south then 24-48 hours later it's back to mush 

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, shaky said:

You are right though midlands is the jackpot area for snow this morning buddy!!seems to be playing out like the last slider lol!

If the 'likely' slider was an odds on favourite horse running as grade1-in a' otherwise 5th grade race...id still at this precise moment stick no more than a cheecky fiver on it!! this could simply atm' diss-engage and drop at southern ireland' then simply scrape the tip of cornwall and ebb-off into northern france...

'However' as some others have flagged! After todays 12z..i may be more inclined to up my stakes and toy with the bookie!?? 

Edited December 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

The problem is, it's fleeting cold, nothing really sustained at all, any snow away from the north won't last 5 minutes. I tend not to like the setup of back edge cold because it's easily pushed away. Just like the GFS shows you get the cold air pulled south then 24-48 hours later it's back to mush 

Ecm op has me in two ice days wed and Thursday. That's colder than a couple weeks ago with 4" snow on the ground! 

Admitedly it's going to be an outlier (or close to) on the London temps later but the cold is there Boxing Day onwards until the Iberian dome of heights appears end of the week to change the axis of the flow with the tough digging further west. 

Edited December 23, 2017 by bluearmy

[koeleboe]

Nice snowfall charts... Now it's your turn ( I live in Belgium, i've had 20cm on 11 december)

[DR(S)NO]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

And todays big winners on this mornings snow-code lottery (ec snow depth charts ) is.........the midlands!!!

There are some big differences on the 850s between 96-120 this morning-

UKMO96

120

EC96

120

UKMO quite a bit colder-could be the difference between cold rain and cold snow for some !!

As long as we don’t have too much of that  warm snow rubbish!

[Summer Sun]

00z ens gives a cold snap for a few days after Christmas it then trends less cold around next weekend and into 2018

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

As long as we don’t have too much of that  warm snow rubbish!

Think thats inevetable pal.

Given the lack in depth of uppers(850s)..

And ya just know that old word 'MARGINALITY' Will be a big player!

Its close your eyes and point at the map atm!!!

North/south/east/west.....

As per at this range.

Edited December 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

39 minutes ago, shaky said:

You are right though midlands is the jackpot area for snow this morning buddy!!seems to be playing out like the last slider lol!

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmm gfs 06z might be going further south again lol!!lets see!!

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmm gfs 06z might be going further south again lol!!lets see!!

It isn't mate its further north again and judging by the 528DAm line its cold hard rain anyway lol.

[tight isobar]

Slider traking furthernorth via gfs 6z..

And upper are a tad worse than ec

Edited December 23, 2017 by tight isobar