January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)

[damianslaw]

A finish of about 5 degrees might be the final figure, given the very mild weather next 48 hours and fairly mild end - I'm including scope for downward corrections, so a mild January again.. oh dear. Though its been a north-south divide sort of month, Scotland I suspect will end up with something much more nearer average. Of our winter months, since 1997 January has been the least likely to deliver a colder than normal CET, we had 2010, and 2009 was cold, but it seems to have become more difficult to see sustained cold in Jan when compared to Dec and Feb, very frustrating January has become! Jan 2019 you must do better!

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A finish of about 5 degrees might be the final figure, given the very mild weather next 48 hours and fairly mild end - I'm including scope for downward corrections, so a mild January again.. oh dear. Though its been a north-south divide sort of month, Scotland I suspect will end up with something much more nearer average. Of our winter months, since 1997 January has been the least likely to deliver a colder than normal CET, we had 2010, and 2009 was cold, but it seems to have become more difficult to see sustained cold in Jan when compared to Dec and Feb, very frustrating January has become! Jan 2019 you must do better!

Got to be said that the Januarys of this decade thus far haven't been as overall as mild as the Januarys of 2000s and the January CET decadal average is going to be less that of the 2000s even without knowing the January 2018 and 2019 figures. It may even be less that the Januarys of 1990s decadal average. 

I think February is proving worse than January for sustained cold.  The coldest February in the last 20 years for the CET is just 2.8C, and we have had a colder March in that period as well.

 

 

Edited January 27, 2018 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

5.1 to the 26th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[Summer Sun]

5.2 to the 27th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.8c here to the 27th, 0.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

Current rainfall total is 53mm.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.1C -0.3C below normal. Rainfall 107.9mm 133.2% of average

[Summer Sun]

5.3 to the 28th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Based on the current output, we'll finish somewhere from 5.3C to 5.5C before corrections, so 4.9C to 5.6C after corrections.

With the maxima yesterday a little lower than anticipated, we were provisionally just 0.6C below setting a new daily record. For today, a maximum of 11.6C is needed to equal the daily record, which looks unlikely at this stage.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.3C bang on average. Rainfall 108.1mm 133.5% of average

[Summer Sun]

5.5 to the 29th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[NorthYorksWeather]

4.1c here to the 29th, 0.6c above the 1981-2010 average.

[cheeky_monkey]

Chilly Edmonton is at -10.5c to the 29th January which is still +3c above normal

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 4.4C +0.1C, Rainfall 111.4mm 137.5% of average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield is going to finish on close average temperature wise and a well above for rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

5.4 to the 30th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[snowray]

On 21/12/2017 at 16:58, SteveB said:

I'll go for 5.4c & 110mm please

5.4c ...............winner??!!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield will finish on 4.4C unless it turns mild overnight which is unlikely. That's 0.2C above normal so basically average. Rainfall 114.4mm so far how much higher depends on how many rain sleet showers we have tonight.

[Chris.R]

5.1°C here, 0.3°C above the 1981-2010 average. Not often we finish below the CET here in winter. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

January confirmed as 5.3C (5.26C) a correction of 0.12C from 5.38C.

Congrats to @Stargazer and @Polar Gael for getting it spot on!

[North-Easterly Blast]

It looks absolutely shocking that, with an easterly QBO and declining solar activity and only a weak La Nina we still get a January that is a degree or more above the long term average (1971-2000 and 1961-90 LTAs), and it was still over 0.8*C above the 1981-2010 LTA.  This is to say that despite the above factors it was not far from the Januarys of 2014 and 2016 (both with westerly QBOs and around or just after solar maximum, the latter also with a strong El Nino).  The sort of January CET that we have just had despite the easterly QBO, declining solar activity etc, makes you wonder if it is even possible for the UK to see winters like 2009-10, Dec 2010, or even winter 2012-13 again.

January 2018 was a bit of a failed month, as only the first few days and a number of days in the last week really saw proper mild synoptics (SW'lies).  At times the synoptics looked promising for cold (a build of HP over Scandinavia in the second week not coming to anything for an easterly, and cold zonality in the third week; although one of the better examples of cold polar maritime zonality in recent years, it didn't amount to anything significant of the likes of January 1984, so for a good chunk of the month the synoptics got half way to a significant cold spell, but never quite came together.  Jan 2018 synoptics just go to show that every bit of the whole pattern has to fall into place accurately to bring a significant cold spell to the UK, and unfortunately last month it got half way there but didn't make it fully.

Edited February 1, 2018 by North-Easterly Blast

[Optimus Prime]

12 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The sort of January CET that we have just had despite the easterly QBO, declining solar activity etc, makes you wonder if it is even possible for the UK to see winters like 2009-10, Dec 2010, or even winter 2012-13 again.

Oh god here we go again lol.

And January 1984 was an extreme example. It's ludicrous comparing one thing to another that is as an extreme example.

Besides those two points I do agree. Was a bit of a disappointing month away from Scotland and some parts of Northern Ireland. But hardly anomalous given the temperature trend all over the globe. 

[Polar Gael]

4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

January confirmed as 5.3C (5.26C) a correction of 0.12C from 5.38C.

Congrats to @Stargazer and @Polar Gael for getting it spot on!

TY - chuffed to have landed a winter month spot on at last! Far chillier up here than for the folks in the C.E.T. Maybe Feb will be different. Once again, many thanks to all those who make this happen - always very interesting and great fun, too. Cheers, PG. 

Edited February 1, 2018 by Polar Gael

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It looks absolutely shocking that, with an easterly QBO and declining solar activity and only a weak La Nina we still get a January that is a degree or more above the long term average (1971-2000 and 1961-90 LTAs), and it was still over 0.8*C above the 1981-2010 LTA.  This is to say that despite the above factors it was not far from the Januarys of 2014 and 2016 (both with westerly QBOs and around or just after solar maximum, the latter also with a strong El Nino).  The sort of January CET that we have just had despite the easterly QBO, declining solar activity etc, makes you wonder if it is even possible for the UK to see winters like 2009-10, Dec 2010, or even winter 2012-13 again.

Knowing that a few teleconnections are in our favour doesn't mean anything; long-range temperature forecasting would be easy otherwise.

And I am in no doubt that such winters are still possible. Something we've seen a lot over the past few winters is extreme cold-pooling over Siberia (perhaps linked to warmth in the Arctic). In the right setup I see no reason why this wouldn't bring exceptionally cold temperatures to our shores (and maybe with increased sea-surface temperatures in the North Sea could produce some enormous snowfalls). I will however concede that perhaps assaults from the north may be less potent.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 4.4C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 119mm 146.9% of average so a very wet month.

[damianslaw]

Yes another mild January, but if you look at the synoptics perhaps you would have expected something a bit colder. The cooler interludes cancelled out by significant mild weather - the last 10 days in particular were very mild in the CET zone. It was atlantic dominated throughout, barely a ridge to speak of, hence very few frosts and I think had we seen a more settled clearer end to the month at least then something closer to average would have surfaced.

A marked North-South divide as well - will be interesting to see how Scotland did, probably close to average. There was a decent snowy period third week, but not especially severe.

I remember back in 2008 I was thinking like others we will ever see a cold January again, the last cold one 1997, alas two came along on the trot. Since 2010 we have had 2013 as well which although near average produced a 2 week cold snowy spell. Granted the last 5 have been dire for severe cold and for the south at least any notable snow. 

A very cold January will turn up at some stage - we are entering solar minimum as well, which might help.