North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Mokidugway]

10 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Here' a pic from Newshaw lane looking North to Hadfield village (hidden)

Plenty up there and plenty more tomorrow.

Thought they where industrial unit roofs 

[Had Worse]

Snow sleet hail shower incoming.

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Thought they where industrial unit roofs 

Yes a good way to fool anyone down sarf

[dodge]

A few rogue wintry showers while out at work today, in between the sunny spells.  Hopefully the skies will clear after sundown and give us an icy start to the night before the clouds roll-in.

Edited December 28, 2017 by dodgeredee

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Of course if its rain then you can be assured it would be persistent and heavy but because its snow, then you can't help but feel its a different story but the met seems certain that those higher up could see quite a decent snow event and for lower levels and near the coast, then its probably not worth getting too excited about and besides, whether you get lots of snow or not, the whole lot will be history by Friday night..

I agree GS..however..for those of us in the east of the region and with a decent bit of altitude we should be able to squeeze in a few hours of sledging etc..kids are off school so the hills round here will be busy!

I hoping for 5cm or so which will be enough for some snowy fun !

[SP1986]

Im going to put my neck on the line here, and I might have to eat my own words, however, this is how I see tonight panning out, on the basis of all model runs/met office warnings etc. It's not 100% detailed and just represents a broad area outcomes of what may happen.

I forsee rain to be the order of the day in coastal areas, including coastal Cumbria (Whitehaven for example), Lancaster, Blackpool, Southport, Crosby, Liverpool west and the Wirral peninsula. 

I think as the rain edges eastwards, on a line of about 5-10 miles inland it may turn to sleet and wet snow.. I would expect you won't have far to travel eastwards if you live in a coastal area in Cumbria and Lancaster for example to see falling and settling snow.

Further south I would expect the Fylde Coast to stay mainly as rain, but the sleet to snow line maybe somewhere around Preston

Going further south, the changeover from Rain-Sleet-Snow will most likely occur around Kirkby in Merseyside, so places like Knowsley and St Helens may well see some heavy, settling snow during the course of the early hours. 

I would expect Chester to retain rain, along with Crewe, although Runcorn, Widnes, Warrington and Manchester will most likely see at least an episode of falling snow.

East of the places mentioned, I suspect it will be snow from the start and of course up in the higher hills of Lancashire and Derbyshire, it's not beyond the realm of reality that 15-20cm could be achieved.

Anyway that's my take on things. 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Im going to put my neck on the line here, and I might have to eat my own words, however, this is how I see tonight panning out, on the basis of all model runs/met office warnings etc. It's not 100% detailed and just represents a broad area outcomes of what may happen.

I forsee rain to be the order of the day in coastal areas, including coastal Cumbria (Whitehaven for example), Lancaster, Blackpool, Southport, Crosby, Liverpool west and the Wirral peninsula. 

I think as the rain edges eastwards, on a line of about 5-10 miles inland it may turn to sleet and wet snow.. I would expect you won't have far to travel eastwards if you live in a coastal area in Cumbria and Lancaster for example to see falling and settling snow.

Further south I would expect the Fylde Coast to stay mainly as rain, but the sleet to snow line maybe somewhere around Preston

Going further south, the changeover from Rain-Sleet-Snow will most likely occur around Kirkby in Merseyside, so places like Knowsley and St Helens may well see some heavy, settling snow during the course of the early hours. 

I would expect Chester to retain rain, along with Crewe, although Runcorn, Widnes, Warrington and Manchester will most likely see at least an episode of falling snow.

East of the places mentioned, I suspect it will be snow from the start and of course up in the higher hills of Lancashire and Derbyshire, it's not beyond the realm of reality that 15-20cm could be achieved.

Anyway that's my take on things. 

I think there's a chance at sea level for some 

[karyo]

Not a good 12z GFS, it pushes the band east a bit faster. Less wintry for the south of the region but still great for the north.

The Aprege still looks fine but I have a feeling it may be overdoing the wintriness.

Edited December 28, 2017 by karyo

[Geordiesnow]

13 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I think there's a chance at sea level for some 

There is whilst the winds are off shore, problem with this low is that its end up too far north so by Friday afternoon the whole region are under milder westerly winds and any PPN wrapped around near the low will be of rain for all areas, even at locations with fairly decent height.

Its one of those where you need to head to bed early and wake up in the early hours too see snow falling because by 8 or 9am, the band will of either of cleared the region or turned back to rain. There is a small chance the band could be an all snow event if it clears quickly enough before the dreaded on shore winds kick in.

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

There is whilst the winds are off shore, problem with this low is that its end up too far north so by Friday afternoon the whole region are under milder westerly winds and any PPN wrapped around near the low will be of rain for all areas, even at locations with fairly decent height.

Its one of those where you need to head to bed early and wake up in the early hours too see snow falling because by 8 or 9am, the band will of either of cleared the region or turned back to rain. There is a small chance the band could be an all snow event if it clears quickly enough before the dreaded on shore winds kick in.

Hence my 90 minute event ,lol

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

I still don’t understand how it will snow with uppers of -1 to -2

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not a good 12z GFS, it pushes the band east a bit faster. Less wintry for the south of the region but still great for the north.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/aromehd-1-19-0.png?28-16

12z AROME (1.3km) is better however. Has snow for much of the region through rush hour, rain reaching Merseyside about lunchtime. 

Not sure how accurate this model is, but I think it is relatively well thought of. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

I still don’t understand how it will snow with uppers of -1 to -2

I assume because temperatures at lower levels will remain low enough for those snowflakes at height to remain as such when it reaches the ground, this would be an all rain event for most if it occured 12 hours later because of daytime heating. 

May see snow here but i be surprised if much accumulates but whether its worth getting up early for I don't know in fairness, it is a blink and you miss it type of affair sadly.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

I still don’t understand how it will snow with uppers of -1 to -2

Because the temperatures below 5000 feet are still below freezing, at least for a time. 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I assume because temperatures at lower levels will remain low enough for those snowflakes at height to remain as such when it reaches the ground, this would be an all rain event for most if it occured 12 hours later because of daytime heating. 

May see snow here but i be surprised if much accumulates but whether its worth getting up early for I don't know in fairness, it is a blink and you miss it type of affair sadly.

We've had good falls from these events but way to transient to get excited about .

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/aromehd-1-19-0.png?28-16

12z AROME (1.3km) is better however. Has snow for much of the region through rush hour, rain reaching Merseyside about lunchtime. 

Not sure how accurate this model is, but I think it is relatively well thought of. 

Yes Arome and Aprege still look fine for a spell of snow. I wish the euro 4 would update as it is often the more realistic in terms of wintry precipitation.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

We've had good falls from these events but way to transient to get excited about .

Aren't you on holiday?

[cheshire snow]

@SP1986

A good summary on how things stand,will go one step further and say anything West of the M6 Will just be a sleety horrible mess sadly,East of the M6 Game on.

That damm M6 its like the M4 down south.

C.S

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Aren't you on holiday?

8 th of Jan ,lol

 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

@SP1986

A good summary on how things stand,will go one step further and say anything West of the M6 Will just be a sleety horrible mess sadly,East of the M6 Game on.

That damm M6 its like the M4 down south.

C.S

That contradicts what ste said.

[Day 10]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

8 th of Jan ,lol

 

That's ok then carry on

[WillinGlossop]

1 hour ago, I'M NOT RALLY HERE said:

Where in glossop is above 300m? 

I’m above Glossop on the tops off Woodhead Road... I’m 304m asl 

[Spurry]

40 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Im going to put my neck on the line here, and I might have to eat my own words, however, this is how I see tonight panning out, on the basis of all model runs/met office warnings etc. It's not 100% detailed and just represents a broad area outcomes of what may happen.

I forsee rain to be the order of the day in coastal areas, including coastal Cumbria (Whitehaven for example), Lancaster, Blackpool, Southport, Crosby, Liverpool west and the Wirral peninsula. 

I think as the rain edges eastwards, on a line of about 5-10 miles inland it may turn to sleet and wet snow.. I would expect you won't have far to travel eastwards if you live in a coastal area in Cumbria and Lancaster for example to see falling and settling snow.

Further south I would expect the Fylde Coast to stay mainly as rain, but the sleet to snow line maybe somewhere around Preston

Going further south, the changeover from Rain-Sleet-Snow will most likely occur around Kirkby in Merseyside, so places like Knowsley and St Helens may well see some heavy, settling snow during the course of the early hours. 

I would expect Chester to retain rain, along with Crewe, although Runcorn, Widnes, Warrington and Manchester will most likely see at least an episode of falling snow.

East of the places mentioned, I suspect it will be snow from the start and of course up in the higher hills of Lancashire and Derbyshire, it's not beyond the realm of reality that 15-20cm could be achieved.

Anyway that's my take on things. 

You don't need a very long neck to be confident that tonight's 'event' will deliver copious amounts of rain for the Wigan area

Edited December 28, 2017 by Spurry

[cheshire snow]

14 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

That contradicts what ste said.

Maybe but thats experience of past events like this.

C.S

 

 

[Day 10]

GFS still wanting to blast the system through sharpish.