North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[robbo88]

For my little part of the region this hasn't been a bad December at all!

ive had quite a few frosts and a fair few days of snow falling, and I think I had snow on the ground for about 4 days the other week. It does help that I am east of the region and my house is at 150m though.

hope everyone gets some snow for a few hours tomorrow, if not we will all go to willinglossops house to build snowmen. He always gets snow! 

[Chris.R]

 The big test tonight is how much the temp can fall once the wind backs off-shore with the cloud cover increasing. If I can get below 35°F before the precipitation arrives then I’ll be pretty confident it will  at least start as snow. 

[weatherobsuk]

Interesting that for tonight ESTOFEX have a level2 in the southern Irish Sea and Wales for gales, tornado possibility, and associated convection. There's quite a bit of CAPE in that area aswell for the early morning hours.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Backtrack]

Where did this come from? Up for work and about a centimetre Of snow has fallen in Widnes!

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Interesting that for tonight ESTOFEX have a level2 in the southern Irish Sea and Wales for gales, tornado possibility, and associated convection. There's quite a bit of CAPE in that area aswell for the early morning hours.

http://www.estofex.org/

That wouldn't surprise me ,convective action over the sea is very strong ,almost summer  rate of growth.

[Backtrack]

Upon closer inspection, looks like we’ve had a mad hailstorm 

[itsnowjoke]

Frost here but melting 

[Mokidugway]

Chain of Preston bound showers has broken for now .

[shaky]

Arome 06z and hirlam.06z still interested in snow midlands north tomorrow!!then anothet slider gives snowfall in same places at 42 hours!!

[Chris.R]

And we have a snow warning!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Arome 06z and hirlam.06z still interested in snow midlands north tomorrow!!then anothet slider gives snowfall in same places at 42 hours!!

Yes,looked at them,we know how wrong the gfs has been with the last two events,will we see a correction in the 12z,18z

maybe the 00z,06z in the morning

 

[cheshire snow]

Weather warnings out for tonight northern parts of the region under amber warning

Coastal areas,cheshire and Merseyside not in any warning area LOL

C.S. 

[Darren Bown]

Warnings are updated and Lancashire looks good, but the yellow warning totally wraps around Manchester and Cheshire/Merseyside, avoiding them completely.

Edited December 28, 2017 by Darren Bown

[griff74]

Metoffice Snow warnings in, looks like the Manchester snow shield is in full working order again, you really can't make this stuff up!!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=nw&date=2017-12-29&regionType=area

[Darren Bown]

THe only good thing about the warnings is they have moved south a bit.

[Chris.R]

 They‘re probably thinking the irish sea will have some influence but I’m telling you now it won’t! The wind is off-shore; that makes all the difference. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Darren Bown said:

THe only good thing about the warnings is they have moved south a bit.

Yes,i suspect it will be further south going from the last two events

[karyo]

Interesting that they have an amber warning for the Pennines but not for Cumbria. This indicates that they expect the heavier precipitation to be in the Central and Southern parts of the region.

 

[Darren Bown]

5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 They‘re probably thinking the irish sea will have some influence but I’m telling you now it won’t! The wind is off-shore; that makes all the difference. 

Is the centre of the low keeping to our south then? I thought it was due to come over us?

[WillinGlossop]

I wasn’t in the warning yesterday now I’m in amber warning.... 

[karyo]

The Aprege looks amazing for the whole region although it still turns the snow to rain by the afternoon.

Any idea what's happening with the euro 4? It hasn't updated since yesterday morning. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Great, now i've been took out of the warning

[Mokidugway]

20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 They‘re probably thinking the irish sea will have some influence but I’m telling you now it won’t! The wind is off-shore; that makes all the difference. 

Heavy easterly component to the wind and with evaporative cooling it will snow at sea level.

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, karyo said:

The Aprege looks amazing for the whole region although it still turns the snow to rain by the afternoon.

Any idea what's happening with the euro 4? It hasn't updated since yesterday morning. 

It's powering the snow shield

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's powering the snow shield

I think it has imploded in the possibility of the northwest getting snow. Like hell freezing over!