North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[SP1986]

3 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Give it until 11:30 and I think there will be. Yello for snow ice and wind. Merseyside will only be in the ice warning. They will miss the coast south of the Ribble off the wind one as well. Just my instincts. 

I'd be very surprised if there's ice in such a flow too here on the coast.. I'd expect minimums of around 2-3C in strong westerly winds in these conditions

Edited January 15, 2018 by SP1986

[northwestsnow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I suppose the irish bath is colder yhan average so that will certainly help.

Think chris said its around 6.7 deg.

Karyo the uppers are widely -7 , evrry little will help ..

[Winter Hill]

30 minutes ago, karyo said:

I can easily see Manchester in the little or no snow 

Why ?

[Chris.R]

Just now, SP1986 said:

I'd be very surprised if there's ice of such a flow too... I'd expect minimums of around 2-3C in strong westerly winds in these conditions

 Yeah of course but they always issue ice ones anyway. Ice covers the coverings from hail/graupel as well. 

[karyo]

Just now, Winter Hill said:

Why ?

I mean little or no settling snow. This is because of similar situations with those uppers and the westerly wind. I hope I am wrong.

[SP1986]

Oh there will be plenty of hail... I wonder what estofex will make of our storm chances tomorrow?

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I suppose the irish bath is colder yhan average so that will certainly help.

Think chris said its around 6.7 deg.

 Yes it is, although only goes in 1 °F resolution so it could be anywhere between 6.4 and 6.9. 

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I mean little or no settling snow. This is because of similar situations with those uppers and the westerly wind. I hope I am wrong.

I personally feel northern parts of Manchester will do OK. . The centre and southern areas of the city may just get rain or sleet 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 Yes it is, although only goes in 1 °F resolution so it could be anywhere between 6.4 and 6.9. 

I wonder what temp it waz in Dec when we the previous wintry weather..wouldnt mind betting it was a degree or two warmer then..

[karyo]

Just now, Winter Hill said:

I personally feel northern parts of Manchester will do OK. . The centre and southern areas of the city may just get rain or sleet 

You should see snow fall and settle at least for a time.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

I mean little or no settling snow. This is because of similar situations with those uppers and the westerly wind. I hope I am wrong.

You know what K i dont even know your asl..about 50m i guess?

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

Oh there will be plenty of hail... I wonder what estofex will make of our storm chances tomorrow?

  This is the aspect of this set up I love. Since we allways seem to miss out in the summer, may as well make the most of anything we get now. 

[karyo]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

You know what K i dont even know your asl..about 50m i guess?

Not sure, I am as central as can get m1 postcode. Thankfully I live in the top floor haha

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I wonder what temp it waz in Dec when we the previous wintry weather..wouldnt mind betting it was a degree or two warmer then..

Between 8.6 and 9.1. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Between 8.6 and 9.1. 

Thats quite a drop for tomorrows event chris.

That could make a pretty big difference...ie less modification than December..

[SP1986]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

  This is the aspect of this set up I love. Since we allways seem to miss out in the summer, may as well make the most of anything we get now. 

My experience is we have more joy with convective thundery weather in winter than summer.. only just of course but I recall more instances of thunder from October to April than May to September

 

[northwestsnow]

I notice the models are now ever so slightly moving wed nights storm further south..

Another 50 to 80 miles south and we could get some heavy snow..

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats quite a drop for tomorrows event chris.

That could make a pretty big difference...ie less modification than December..

I personally don't think it'll make a difference.. any difference will be negligible. It will be interesting to see how the sea influences the dewpoints around the coast. I think here they will 'only' be around -1C

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I notice the models are now ever so slightly moving wed nights storm further south..

Another 50 to 80 miles south and we could get some heavy snow..

Fingers crossed..

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats quite a drop for tomorrows event chris.

That could make a pretty big difference...ie less modification than December..

 It could do, I don’t know. I don’t have any previous analogues to go off. 

 We did have -8 and -9 850s in Dec though. 

[pip22]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I notice the models are now ever so slightly moving wed nights storm further south..

Another 50 to 80 miles south and we could get some heavy snow..

We could only hope.

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I notice the models are now ever so slightly moving wed nights storm further south..

Another 50 to 80 miles south and we could get some heavy snow..

Correct me if I'm wrong.

For the mild sector to pass just to the south of us, we need a shift of about 130 miles based on the current 6z with the sector just clearing Durham.

[Winter Hill]

16 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not sure, I am as central as can get m1 postcode. Thankfully I live in the top floor haha

Manchester piccadilly is 42m 

[Had Worse]

My front door path is at 150m, Upstairs window adds anothe 3.5m.

Technically I could see snow settle on the outside window ledges upstairs but have no snow to sledge in when I open the front door.;

[frosty ground]

I'm slightly confused with the Scottish warning as the Impact Chart has been adjusted to make the event less likely but with more impact.

I think the amounts shown for the higher areas of our region are on the low side but we will soon see.