North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The caveat is that it is stalling now I believe as progression is now very slow. It's a matter of whether it begins its slide without much pivot or whether the pivot provides northern areas with light snow. It's still possible there will be no snow for anywhere in the region.

Met-office probably right on with the southern trend outcome despite it being further north at this point.

The Metoffice are saying there is a risk of disruptive snow in the S of our region...but we'll see

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The Metoffice are saying there is a risk of disruptive snow in the S of our region...but we'll see

It's progression is far too slow for me. When we were in the forecast sweet spot a few days ago the ETA was circa 4am or now. Today if it arrives it looks like it'll arrive around 6am to our part of the region (including you).

[Had Worse]

10 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 My Rain Alarm app says there’s something 30 miles to myself. Is it coming this way? 

That thing 30 miles away is your get out clause for having to eat your gloves

[SP1986]

I just took a more zoomed in look at the radar and actually it's moving faster than it first looked. It's nearly at the doorstep of the region and still moving northeast

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, SP1986 said:

I just took a more zoomed in look at the radar and actually it's moving faster than it first looked. It's nearly at the doorstep of the region and still moving northeast

Yep, front edge not far from the Shrops/Cheshire border now

 

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

That thing 30 miles away is your get out clause for having to eat your gloves

Hope so lol

Edited December 10, 2017 by Chris.R

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I just took a more zoomed in look at the radar and actually it's moving faster than it first looked. It's nearly at the doorstep of the region and still moving northeast

 Wow still moving north-east, amazing. 25 miles away from me now. 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Chris.R

[Had Worse]

I make it 57 miles from me .

[Chris.R]

Wow the pressure is low, 987 mbar. -0.2°C. 

[SP1986]

I've been replaying the radar loop and believe the south of the region will tap into some pretty decent snowfall rates. As it stands, 5-7cm cannot be ruled out as far north as Liverpool

Edited December 10, 2017 by SP1986

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, SP1986 said:

I've been replaying the radar loop and believe the south of the region will tap into some pretty decent snowfall rates. 

Hiw much south?

[SP1986]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Hiw much south?

Maybe on a line of Manchester to Southport ish

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

I've been replaying the radar loop and believe the south of the region will tap into some pretty decent snowfall rates. As it stands, 5-7cm cannot be ruled out as far north as Liverpool

Yay my gloves might be safe after all. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I've been replaying the radar loop and believe the south of the region will tap into some pretty decent snowfall rates. As it stands, 5-7cm cannot be ruled out as far north as Liverpool

I'll be completely happy with an inch covering.

[SP1986]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I'll be completely happy with an inch covering.

You'll easily get that in Crewe. I'd say 2-3 inches is possible judging by the radar. The band looks quite strong at the moment.. it will lose intensity during the day but we have this morning

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

You'll easily get that in Crewe. I'd say 2-3 inches is possible judging by the radar. The band looks quite strong at the moment.. it will lose intensity during the day but we have this morning

Front edge within touching distance now

[SP1986]

Something quite interesting is that places in the southwest that were expected to have snow with the more southerly modelling are seeing rain (which was initially forecast with the more northerly solutions). Therefore it may be that the south of the region is back in the game..

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, SP1986 said:

Something quite interesting is that places in the southwest that were expected to have snow with the more southerly modelling are seeing rain (which was initially forecast with the more northerly solutions). Therefore it may be that the south of the region is back in the game..

I worked out that its following yesterdays 06z but with more ppn from initial front

[SP1986]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

I worked out that its following yesterdays 06z but with more ppn from initial front

So essentially like all things when in comes to modelling it's best to take the middle road scenario

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

There was reports that there was an unmodelled front causing trouble down south early last night

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Its been on fax charts since yesterday afternoon

[Chris.R]

 Got a good feeling about this now. 21 miles away. 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Very slow though at this rate it will be xmas before it arrives!!

[wrightc23]

A friend of mine reporting very heavy snow just south of Stafford now.

[WillinGlossop]

Large pinch of salt but accuweather going for this forecast for Glossop... radar says Ashbourne/ derby about to start snowing....