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Nick L

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Unfortunately not. That's because the area of low pressure itself doesn't actually drop by 24mb. I should have probably not been so vague, but the large pressure drop is due to the fact that we're under a ridge of high pressure, before the low pressure moves in. It's still quite an impressive change in pressure in a short space of time though. :)

Ah ok...so the pressure drop has to be in the low pressure system for it to be a bomb? Impressive drop nonetheless. 

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One thing to note is the threat of further snow showers after the main band of PPN has cleared later tomorrow;

aromehd-42-33-0.thumb.png.6da4180b2e3cef29e7a258fccb1ceb88.png 

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1 hour ago, carl79 said:

Im hoping im in a good spot.. fingers all crossed :)

Brackley south Northamptonshire 

Screenshot_20171209-180900.jpg

Brackley always used to do really well for snow, many a marginal event was snow when it hit there - I used to live just down the road in Hinton in the Hedges.

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"Really quite incredible looking through the 12Z ECM ensembles - at just 18 hours away, the central front of the "slider" is forecast to stall just about anywhere between Guildford and Cambridge. London is hit by snow in almost all the ensembles now, especially north of the Thames.

Rapidly becoming an "on" the M4 event, rather than north of it.

Longer term - more and more charts stalling the Atlantic between 17th and 19th, will cold remaining in place. And with just 6 days until Christmas..."


Post by Man With Beard in the model thread. "Rapidly becoming an "on" the M4 event, rather than north of it." - Might be the sweetest words I've ever read on this forum. Would love for it to be the case.

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Snow just hitting Weymouth & Portland? Meteo radar appears to show it. 

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7 minutes ago, Nick_Somerset said:

Its sooooo cold..if anything fall from the sky right now..surly its not gonna be rain..its bloody freezing?

Do you have a temperature, humidity and pressure reading handy? I can do some calculations. However, most of the region is under -4 to -5C upper air, and that is slowly being mixed out by the approaching front. :(

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Temperatures dropping here at the moment. Don't expect that'll last long though. :sorry:

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Still dropping here, too - very close to the precip now. 2.6 °C 

radar.thumb.png.0fce9f76bbc0a4bd29d4eaa5f1a52058.png

6 minutes ago, kevvo said:

Snow just hitting Weymouth & Portland? Meteo radar appears to show it. 

Showing as plain ol' rain on the NetWx radar.

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1.1c here currently but it has climbed over last hour or so. 

Edited by Nights King

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Been out all day, how is it looking for Oxford tomorrow and into Monday, any snow on offering? 

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As far as I can tell, the 12z Hi-Res suite pads out as follows:

Significant snowfall on Sunday South of Oxford for at least a few frames:

- AROME

- ARPEGE

- HIRLAM

- ICON (15z although only included due to heavy snow from undercut/wrap around in pm following rain)

- NETWX-SR

Significant snowfall only North of Oxford:

- NMM

- EURO4

Edited by The Enforcer

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Holding steady at 1.2c dew -1.0c

not looking forward to standing on the side lines of the rugby pitch tomorrow 

fromey

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Excuse the newbie question... but will the intensity of the PPN increase the chance of it falling as snow? Or will it make little to no difference tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Excuse the newbie question... but will the intensity of the PPN increase the chance of it falling as snow? Or will it make little to no difference tomorrow.

It can do, but you would still need sufficient cold upper temperatures to support it. Heavier precip can help to lower the wet bulb freezing temp, but  not so much in windy conditions.

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31 minutes ago, jethro said:

Brackley always used to do really well for snow, many a marginal event was snow when it hit there - I used to live just down the road in Hinton in the Hedges.

I know hinton very well. Built a house there last year just as you leave the village towards crougton.. im hoping to see some snow tomorrow  been a few snowless years here at the moment.. my son at 2.5 years old has never seen a good dumping of snow or any snow at all come to think of it

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Hi, am I right in saying the main rain/low pressure is only just showing on the radar in SW Ireland, and to get snow when that arrives you’d want to be in the middle or northern part of the system for highest chance of snow ? Thanks... 

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5 minutes ago, carl79 said:

I know hinton very well. Built a house there last year just as you leave the village towards crougton.. im hoping to see some snow tomorrow  been a few snowless years here at the moment.. my son at 2.5 years old has never seen a good dumping of snow or any snow at all come to think of it

I'm in Charlton, small world eh. So are we gonna get snow???

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1 minute ago, wilbur said:

I'm in Charlton, small world eh. So are we gonna get snow???

Soooo hope so wibur :)

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