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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of negativity this morning. It’s not a poor outlook it’s just average IMO. Not sure how anyone can say it’s a poor for the next 10-15 days if you like wintry weather. Large parts of the UK will see snow next week, perhaps some are being very IMBY ?

 

D262EB3D-01B2-4BC1-90A8-6D283E2C730F.png

Agreed, it's this weeks that's poor, rubbish in fact but next week looks much more interesting in terms of action packed weather..I expect there will be at least some cold zonality at times from next week into the new year with the jet occasionally digging south with the uk on the cold side of the PFJ at times!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Iv'e been watching these deviation plots from EC over the last few days- at days 8,9, and 10 temps are broadly below average for the UK , here is day 10 from the det-

ECMOPEU00_240_34.png

Couple of things stand out (apart from the UK being below average) - the temps across europe extending to Moscow looks well above the norm, and maybe importantly there has been a reduction in the extreme cold way to our far NORTH WEST, for the last few days that dark purple has been much more expansive- not sure what that means, if anything, but thought i would post the chart anyway.. :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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I'm all for trying to get the best out of a poor situation but unless you live up on the pennines or at hieght in Scotland you are very unlikely to see settling snow from what the models are currently showing. Which means a good 95% of the uk populace won't see a flake I'm afraid.

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I've heard on the reliable grapevine that there will be big changes( stratospheric speaking ) mid to end of Jan which will produce a much more blocky, cold outcome for uk from mid Jan through into feb. Until then Atlantic dominated, stormy weather to endure. Anyone in hear agree with this scenario? 

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1 minute ago, John Badrick said:

I've heard on the reliable grapevine that there will be big changes( stratospheric speaking ) mid to end of Jan which will produce a much more blocky, cold outcome for uk from mid Jan through into feb. Until then Atlantic dominated, stormy weather to endure. Anyone in hear agree with this scenario? 

Which grapevine is that John?

My understanding is Glosea has  moved away from a SSW... :)

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2 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

I've heard on the reliable grapevine that there will be big changes( stratospheric speaking ) mid to end of Jan which will produce a much more blocky, cold outcome for uk from mid Jan through into feb. Until then Atlantic dominated, stormy weather to endure. Anyone in hear agree with this scenario? 

The "reliable grapevine"

I presume that refers to the BOM model?

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Just now, John Badrick said:

I've heard on the reliable grapevine that there will be big changes( stratospheric speaking ) mid to end of Jan which will produce a much more blocky, cold outcome for uk from mid Jan through into feb. Until then Atlantic dominated, stormy weather to endure. Anyone in hear agree with this scenario? 

I hope that reliable grapevine isn't glosea.Only a week ago its was strongly in favour of a stratospheric warming in the near future then changed it's mind.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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7 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

I've heard on the reliable grapevine that there will be big changes( stratospheric speaking ) mid to end of Jan which will produce a much more blocky, cold outcome for uk from mid Jan through into feb. Until then Atlantic dominated, stormy weather to endure. Anyone in hear agree with this scenario? 

When the going gets desperate we have to rely on rumours! haha

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Reliable was a bit tongue and cheek as nothing this far out is reliable when talking about an event a month away, but a SSW is still a distinct possibility ! 

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1 minute ago, KyleHenry said:

Let me see if I can help, the cyclones that they are referring to regarding interference are those occurring in the Indian Ocean. That body of water is included in forecasting MJO phases. 

7B1F2141-DCE8-4BA6-B22D-E82C6854F75D.thumb.jpeg.ca917e63dc5f1a298d215e0beaafb5c8.jpeg

 

What we have are several cyclones moving poleward, it is unclear what amount of energy is contained in these storms, therefore difficulty in calculating effect.

Initial forecasts stemmed  from that enormous Pacific energy wave in mid October as shown below DAAF94C5-1C21-491D-B654-88E743406E2C.thumb.gif.72c4d23ba1ddeaacf6e5fd699614b52b.gif

 

This in turn due to its magnitude created a split in PV via Tropospheric upwelling. It was a very large sigma event.

Since then the Pacific had went dormant until now. Typhoon Tembin has now formed as forecasted.

 77FA407B-41EC-4508-97B3-353565C82D60.thumb.jpeg.f4b653e4e04cbce7833f2c4f72d40801.jpeg

 

It is this typhoon that will create the modelled Pacific WAA and upcoming -AO

70C0AF20-32AF-4F06-8AD3-7BACBBE0AAFB.thumb.png.51df1a8e171e594d93bdecc1038da608.png

 

Models have forecasted a 2nd Pacific NW Typoon which has not materialised as yet. 

There will be two pulses of significant statospheric energy waves. 

The issue now is what magnitude of energy will they contain. 

At present they look to not contain enough to attain a full reversal at 60N @ 10 hPa level. 

Hence the readjustment of GP’s and S Murr’s thoughts. 

There will be cold incursions from this event but unlikely to hold unless energy contained inside these wave breaking phases is misjudged by models.

Finally January is not a forgone conclusion until we reach the 20th day of the month, but the remainder of December is. 

The Pacific could very well go into full activation mode and create a SSW. Energy contained and storm activity are the unknowns, hence the readjustment to forecast. 

Personnally I’ll be looking at the next phase of Typhoon/cyclone activity after this one around the 10th Jan 2018. Then we will have a better understanding of what’s to come for the UK.

What he said!😁

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Can we could please stick to the Model vines in here, Thanks ☺

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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Can we could please stick to the Model vines in here, Thanks ☺

or incur the grapes of wrath?...:D

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23 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Im not sure I agree with some of the posts this morning.

Between Xmas and the New year its likely to be unsettled with snow on higher ground in the N. Im not sure I would refer this as stormy though just bog standard typical zonality. Worringly if you're seeking a cold spell for the New year the outlook could become even worse.as I can see pressure rising from the S with the jet taking a SW-NE trajectory. This will result in very mild temps spreading across the UK into Europe. I continue to be amazed at just how much warmth is being predicted especially for Scandi, Siberia.

Only positive for the New year is the ouput can only get better because it cannot get any worse.

GFS Operation Run isn't really to be trusted

gens-21-1-240.pnggens-21-0-240.png
EDM1-240.GIF?21-12EDM0-240.GIF?21-12

I don't see Very Mild South westerlies..... Other than the occasional passing depression.

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1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Northern hilly areas will see some snow - I would not call that "large parts of the UK".  

Those ECM snow depth charts are very misleading.  Treat with huge truckload of salt.

I would say large parts of the UK have snow next week on many of the runs including the most recent GFS 06z

 

EB8E90A0-8136-4296-B663-858E65682E94.gif

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44 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I hope that reliable grapevine isn't glosea.Only a week ago its was strongly in favour of a stratospheric warming in the near future then changed it's mind.

An interesting comment that, re the output from Glosea, how do we know what it was suggesting as we have no sight of it?

In the fairly reliable time frame, and already commented on re the 500 mb anomaly charts. They, that I can get hold of, other than NOAA, both 6-10 and 8-14, have changed emphasis somewhat but in general a strongish westerly Atlantic flow from the bottom of the main Canadian trough into the UK then on into a relatively shallow European trough, on some, into the Mediterranean. So other than the 2-3 day colder spell post Xmas, and quite probably similar developing in the 2 week period behind deepish surface lows then no major cold outbreak seems likely.

beyond 2 weeks I leave to folk with a much greater understanding than I have.

If I may as an old 'un, make an observation on some of the posts re deep cold, what interests me is why, with UK Met models being constant in the 2-4 month outlooks re overall temperatures, upper air patterns, is why we got such a fairly deep cold outbreak this month. Nor have I any idea why UK Met, went fairly consistently for the colder option in their 6-30 day outlooks, in spite of what their 2-4 month input must have shown. Quite intriguing but I no longer have any contacts in the senior man's area so I will probably never know!

usual links below along with the ECMWF 500 mb anomaly charts via Meteo-c

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Edited by johnholmes
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Do old runs get archived somewhere?  For example is there any way of knowing what the chart for T336 showed on the GFS  6z run for 11th December?

I ask because I'm pretty sure that showed a mild wet christmas day, especially for the South.   I know that the way the weather comes into the UK will pretty much end up with that result 7/10 times.  I just curious as to how accurate it may prove to have been  with its evolution back then , or whether the same type of conditions as it modelled back then are possibly arriving by via a very different route.... 

Edited by Timmytour

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2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Do old runs get archived somewhere?  For example is there any way of knowing what the chart for T336 showed on the 6z run for 11th December?

I ask because I'm pretty sure that showed a mild wet christmas day, especially for the South.   I know that the way the weather comes into the UK will pretty much end up with that result 7/10 times.  I just curious as to how accurate it may prove to have been  with its evolution back then , or whether the same type of conditions as it modelled back then are possibly arriving by via a very different route.... 

gfsnh-0-336.png?6

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

gfsnh-0-336.png?6

that's interesting! As it stands it looks a pretty good shout in terms of our weather from that far out!

 

GFSOPEU06_96_1.png

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6 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

that's interesting! As it stands it looks a pretty good shout in terms of our weather from that far out!

 

GFSOPEU06_96_1.png

Yes, the models perform quite well with mild mobile weather as it is the climatological norm for us. 

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18 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, the models perform quite well with mild mobile weather as it is the climatological norm for us. 

Which, in turn,  generally makes the models more reliable than reading the tea leaves...

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43 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

An interesting comment that, re the output from Glosea, how do we know what it was suggesting as we have no sight of it?

In the fairly reliable time frame, and already commented on re the 500 mb anomaly charts. They, that I can get hold of, other than NOAA, both 6-10 and 8-14, have changed emphasis somewhat but in general a strongish westerly Atlantic flow from the bottom of the main Canadian trough into the UK then on into a relatively shallow European trough, on some, into the Mediterranean. So other than the 2-3 day colder spell post Xmas, and quite probably similar developing in the 2 week period behind deepish surface lows then no major cold outbreak seems likely.

beyond 2 weeks I leave to folk with a much greater understanding than I have.

If I may as an old 'un, make an observation on some of the posts re deep cold, what interests me is why, with UK Met models being constant in the 2-4 month outlooks re overall temperatures, upper air patterns, is why we got such a fairly deep cold outbreak this month. Nor have I any idea why UK Met, went fairly consistently for the colder option in their 6-30 day outlooks, in spite of what their 2-4 month input must have shown. Quite intriguing but I no longer have any contacts in the senior man's area so I will probably never know!

usual links below along with the ECMWF 500 mb anomaly charts via Meteo-c

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0

I think that is from the various tweets from IF (Ian Ferguson) who seems to stop posting here . Although at the time confidence was stated to be low there seemed to be a signal for SSW and more block weather , but these have definetly waned over the last week according to latest tweets.

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