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Paul

Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Seems that at the moment in order to see temperatures anything above the long term average you have to look out into fantasy land. The opposite of our norm. And there is still no certainty that this long foretold milder spell will last very long, if indeed it happens at all!  Also the northerly at the end of the week seems to be getting more pronounced too. It seems to be generally considered here fait accompli that a mild spell will commence after this weekend, but I am still not fully convinced of this and still think we may yet see some interesting developments in the models as the cold air holds on longer than currently suggested, and perhaps even fights back.   

Edited by JBMWeatherForever

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13 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

 

gfs-0-144.png?12

We can see GFS holding back the ejection of energy into the northern arm of the jet

This is what I'm clinging to this evening as I'm sure are all the coldies.:santa-emoji:

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Evening all :)

Well, I'm sure this evening's ECM has got some of the more over-anxious contributors rushing for the door.

Never mind.

It was always likely if not inevitable there would be a resumption of the "normal" winter pattern after the amplification of current times and of course the worst runs always seem to be at the end of the cold spell.

So where do we go from here ?

As is often the case in life, probably nowhere slowly. A 10-14 day Atlantic dominated period starting from early next week wouldn't surprise and we'd still have two thirds of winter to play with. There are plenty of options knockering (sorry) around in the Ensembles and the idea of rising heights to the NE is far from dead albeit some of the more hopeful charts suggesting a rapid transition may have been overdone.

The teleconnections offer plenty of optimism in the longer term but if I've seen my snow for the winter so be it.

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5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

So much I agree with about this.  The "signs" that are there are signs that are nearly always there.  They are the same signs that are seen when it looks like the zonal norm is set to return to ruin a cold snowy period and we are told we can safely ignore them.

The key for me is whether the signals are current or whether they are projected. If the former, then, as set out in the NW winter forecast, there can be reasonable confidence in conditions supporting wintry weather emerging at some point.

However, if it is a forecast for favourable background signals then it is just that - a forecast - and as such needs to be weighted accordingly. Hypothetically, a forecast today for a SSW on 1st Jan 2018 is not really any more reliable than GFS charts showing snow on xmas day at T+384. I have lost track of how many times the charts show MJO is expected to move into 'this' phase and a few days later they instead say that it is expected to move into 'that' phase.

 

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The latter stages of the ECM are a bit of a horror show for those who want to see cold

BUT

...there are signs that pressure is building to the NE in FI and the seemingly inevitable mild spell is getting pushed back even if it is only by a matter of hours

I don't mind a spell of Atlantic weather as long as it's lively and interesting. The later frames from ECM will be both mild and dry for the south. Or, to put it another way it will be BORING for the south

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If EC is correct then i think we are going to have to have a little patience over the coming week(s).

One positive i can see by day 10 is some very cold dense air building over the Baltics- if we see some amplification in the western Atlantic thereafter then there will be some cold air to tap into -

Worth watching IMHO and although it does look a +NAO i honestly don't think it will be one that lasts for weeks on end.

Just a case of riding out the coming 10 -14 days :)

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According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

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3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

GFS is sniffing around a warming in the strat around christmas time :)

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Edited by northwestsnow

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Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

I'm guessing the models that the METO have access to (but that we don't) have been seeing something blocky as the METO updates have been hinting at it. But, unfortunately it keeps getting pushed back. The blocked theme was first touted at Christmas which would have been marvellous. Now it's the new year

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2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts 😬 

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Just now, LRD said:

I'm guessing the models that the METO have access to (but that we don't) have been seeing something blocky as the METO updates have been hinting at it. But, unfortunately it keeps getting pushed back. The blocked theme was first touted at Christmas which would have been marvellous. Now it's the new year

lol ...........wasn't it originally a year ago! :wallbash:

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Just now, ArHu3 said:

I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts 😬 

.......great minds.......! :yahoo:

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is sniffing around a warming in the strat around christmas time :)

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

It did this last year too, it kept postponing for literally 2 months. This warming has been postponed 3 days now (Saturday is was modeled for the 23rd). I would take it with a pinch of salt 

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5 minutes ago, stratty said:

lol ...........wasn't it originally a year ago! :wallbash:

Yup very true. To be fair to GLOSEA, though, I think last winter was the first time you could say it bust. And, at times in January it was a near miss for deep cold for the UK. I know a near miss may as well be a massive miss but, in terms of forecasting global weather patterns, it wasn't that far out. 

They've got to keep pushing and testing the science though.

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5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It did this last year too, it kept postponing for literally 2 months. This warming has been postponed 3 days now (Saturday is was modeled for the 23rd). I would take it with a pinch of salt 

Yes i know :)

Hope fully this time it will be more accurate!

Think this time we have GLOSEA sniffing around a similar prognosis- 

Lets see- i'm hopeful things will look differently in around 2 weeks time :)

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glosea was the only model that didn't predict an ssw last winter when gfs, gefs and eps were. I think it's the best model in the strat

i wouldn't pay too much attention to gfs and gefs 10hpa forecasts in fi until we see them consistently getting below T300

I have some thoughts as to how a SSW may happen and I don't see it quite happening in December 

Edited by bluearmy

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Looking at the ECM ensembles for London some room there to extend the cold for a few days. The op is  at the top end of solutions towards days 6 and 7 although  good support for milder weather after that.

 

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Evening All... Cant help thinking that the ecm is far to progressive with the Atlantic return, gfs is a coldies friend ,ecm gives the coldies a Cold Shoulder:rofl::cold:

me.png

mex.png

post-12319-0-66097000-1426768471.jpg

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

glosea was the only model that didn't predict an ssw last winter when gfs, gefs and eps were. I think it's the best model in the strat

Mind might be playing tricks but didn't GLOSEA call a cold winter back in Nov 16? That's what triggered all those wintry long rangers that METO were coming out with late autumn/early winter last year

I agree with your comment, in general, though

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24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is sniffing around a warming in the strat around christmas time :)

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Yes perhaps something akin to Jan 2013 may occur, but a week or so earlier, we saw major warming in early Jan and then a 2 week very cold snowy spell, leading into the cold Feb and exceptional March, Indeed late Nov 2012 - first part of Dec 2012 was generally cold, similiar to now, nothing exceptional but wintry (though I wouldn't want a repeat of christmas 2012 which was cloudy wet and mild, miserable).

Anyhow back to the models, ECM showing a resurgent atlantic and a mild SW fetch, GFS less so. The theme of recent weeks has been amplification, barely any long fetch westerly/southwesterly, and I don't see any major change in overall base state of northern hemisphere to suggest a long spell of such weather, a temporary phase may occur, before christmas, and then all eyes to the NE, expecting height rises here to begin to influence things. For snow cold lovers, what a pity we couldn't have fast forwarded the clock 2 weeks yesterday, a snowy christmas eve and snow on the ground for christmas - would have been perfect. 

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The plume for de Bilt still very uncertain after the 17th, it has been like this for 4 days at least but I think we see more and more members choosing a cold solution 

KNMI_expertpluim_De_Bilt_Temperatuur_201712111200.png

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM ensembles for London some room there to extend the cold for a few days. The op is  at the top end of solutions towards days 6 and 7 although  good support for milder weather after that.

 

Yes.

Although a barrage, of un-doing after friday'i suspect?!.

Certainly be worth an'eye on the gfs op-18z...

Will-it won't it...

Follow its sister suite(12z)...

or another embarrassing 'outlier'..

From the high(supposed data12z!!!)

graphe_ens3.png

Edited by tight isobar

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UKMO extended has a deep low tracking somewhere around Iceland with the UK in a southwesterly giving some rain mainly in the south and west

ukm2.2017121812_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.54d1b5dab2a99fee9e7c34114d42f286.png

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34 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts 😬 

I think, to be fair, that there was extensive blocking, although not quite as far enough north as we may have anticipated.   

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