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Paul

Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Is there any review of how well or otherwise the various models perform over a period of time? This, that and other persons say that this or that model is good at this or that but is it ever scientifically analysed?

Thinking it was only 2 or 3 weeks ago that it was suggested, by some, that we would never have a snowflake again and winter was over before it started.

Were there any front runners of the models that predicted at anything more than a day or two, with some degree of accuracy, yesterdays snow event? Appreciate with some scenarios "Nowcasting" is the only thing that is appropriate for the fine detail of what is or going to happen in any particular location.

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

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3 hours ago, booferking said:

One thing for sure i agree with you is the snow totals are a joke London has 4 inches and the city has come to a standstill at the minute:rofl:, to be honest there all brutally crap at predicting snow.

snow.png

That graphic is just totally wrong. I can tell you with 100% certainty that the SW has nothing like that much.

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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That graphic is just totally wrong. I can tell you with 100% certainty that the SW has nothing like that much.

Thats why i throw it in the discussion it is so wrong it makes me laugh EC on the brandy me thinks.:drunk-emoji:

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22 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

If I have read that correctly, does that imply that the ECM mean is the go-to model for 500 charts? Is there an equivalent assessment for 850 charts?

Edited by The Enforcer

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Looking at the GFS mean tonight it is shown to remain above the long-term average from around the 18th until after Christmas

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.aebee1c222602024d183362bab50343f.png

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All I will say about the Ecm 12z is I hope the Gfs is right!!!!:whistling::D

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GEM looking very mild next week at times

GEMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.b12fdabe85c6bd2e94310fcd6822c6eb.pngGEMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.a5dfbabe9036579264af78f14c0d871a.png

GEMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.8830560559da71f544242fa93c3896cd.pngGEMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.8d9044b82f200e0a29e71f26fe586cf2.png

ECM also trending milder

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.8323f9822b13720cfa022f45f93cd33f.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.9be94b9c1d8af2fe6279191f9ce4c5a3.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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The ECM is most progressive of the big 3. It does actually manage to eject the shortwave from Scotland to ne Spain between T144 and T168hrs. This would become the trigger if we had something that could lead to but too much energy upstream so no chance of developing any ridging to the ne.

There are differences between the big 3 upstream with views of the trough and how far east it gets. I still wouldn't rule out a GFS type outcome because its not really outlandish given the overall set up but its hard to see this as anything other than the dam holding a few more days before the Atlantic flood moves in.

It would need some bigger changes to develop a stronger ridge to the ne and sufficient trough disruption upstream.

 

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM looking very mild next week as times

GEMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.b12fdabe85c6bd2e94310fcd6822c6eb.pngGEMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.a5dfbabe9036579264af78f14c0d871a.png

GEMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.8830560559da71f544242fa93c3896cd.pngGEMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.8d9044b82f200e0a29e71f26fe586cf2.png

ECM also trending milder

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.8323f9822b13720cfa022f45f93cd33f.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.9be94b9c1d8af2fe6279191f9ce4c5a3.png

Where's the sick bag..:bad: ...don't despair, we still have the Gfs 12z which holds on to the colder air for the early part of next week.:D

Edited by Frosty.

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Amazing how quickly the pattern is changing from what was looking like a cold month we could even end up above average yet the way ECM and GEM are going!

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.62eff30370fe313472fe995e8861426f.png

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is most progressive of the big 3. It does actually manage to eject the shortwave from Scotland to ne Spain between T144 and T168hrs. This would become the trigger if we had something that could lead to but too much energy upstream so no chance of developing any ridging to the ne.

There are differences between the big 3 upstream with views of the trough and how far east it gets. I still wouldn't rule out a GFS type outcome because its not really outlandish given the overall set up but its hard to see this as anything other than the dam holding a few more days before the Atlantic flood moves in.

It would need some bigger changes to develop a stronger ridge to the ne and sufficient trough disruption upstream.

 

One thing iv notice about GFS this winter it has been more amplified this Winter than the EC which is strange usually the other way around, but sadly when the GFS has shown more amplification it slowly loses it run by run to be more inline with EC this has happened a few times during are Northerly outbreaks.

Edited by booferking

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Haven't checked the models for a few days but flicked through the GFS 12z and thought, oh cold weather may well hang on. Just checked ensembles and can see it's a clear outlier in the mid term.

IMG_3003.thumb.PNG.e7fd9d570534ac12ce63d0498e2bd160.PNG

Is the op onto something or just simply out on its own.

A milder week next week would suit me personally work wise but I get a sneaky feeling the cold is not finished with us yet.

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Amazing how quickly the pattern is changing from what was looking like a cold month we could even end up above average yet the way ECM and GEM are going!

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.62eff30370fe313472fe995e8861426f.png

Wasn’t this coming week meant to be mild when viewed last week ? 

I’ll have to look back at the archive’s 😉

Edited by shotski

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Amazing how quickly the pattern is changing from what was looking like a cold month we could even end up above average yet the way ECM and GEM are going!

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.62eff30370fe313472fe995e8861426f.png

Yes it's amazingly awful Gavin, let me just cling onto what the Gfs 12z shows later this week / early next week before the 18z probably snatches it away.:help:

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is most progressive of the big 3. It does actually manage to eject the shortwave from Scotland to ne Spain between T144 and T168hrs. This would become the trigger if we had something that could lead to but too much energy upstream so no chance of developing any ridging to the ne.

There are differences between the big 3 upstream with views of the trough and how far east it gets. I still wouldn't rule out a GFS type outcome because its not really outlandish given the overall set up but its hard to see this as anything other than the dam holding a few more days before the Atlantic flood moves in.

It would need some bigger changes to develop a stronger ridge to the ne and sufficient trough disruption upstream.

 

One thing ive seen on the GEFS ensmbles tonight is that at 240hrs every member has the azores high tilted SW to NE which is never a good position unless all the stars align and energy somehow get beneath it or splits it. At 384hrs every memeber has the azores at a NW to SE tilt. In my mind a far better position and ready to pounce on any let up from the atlantic. Not pointing to what GP and others have said but id take anyway to cold!

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4 minutes ago, shotski said:

Wasn’t this coming week meant to be mild when viewed last week ? 

I’ll have to look back at the archive’s 😉

Today 1 week ago

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.18de7d42d06a5e3b633063f199a35739.GIF

Actual

ECM0-0.thumb.GIF.908380414abe268a729b5e6ec82b8246.GIF

Both charts ECM

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21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

All I will say about the Ecm 12z is I hope the Gfs is right!!!!:whistling::D

Yes Frosty the focus is on day 6 with ECM much more progressive with pushing the Atlantic through.

The 3 at T144hrs

ECM1-144.GIF?11-0UW144-21.GIF?11-17gfs-0-144.png?12

We can see GFS holding back the ejection of energy into the northern arm of the jet(see the extra purples across S.Greenland on the others).More pressure therefore on Atlantic ridging seen by the forward positive tilting especially on the ECM.

This is the key time if we get that delay and trough disruption just to our west with some energy heading se then this could change the outlook from milder in week 2.UKMO seems the middle ground but would need to step back even more than GFS to rescue the situation from flattening later.

The expected week 2 pattern is still for westerlies but with these differences and a split jet this is not a given just yet.

ECM clusters will be useful later to see if they are at least considering a different path to the day 6 Op.Certainly some of 06/12z gefs have this slower option where the cold air shows some resistance to the Atlantic push next week end.

Edited by phil nw.

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4 minutes ago, shotski said:

Wasn’t this coming week meant to be mild when viewed last week ? 

I’ll have to look back at the archive’s 😉

yes ukmo was toying with idea of blowtorch south westerlies come the end of this week but it's looking mighty cold again

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45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, according to the Gfs 12z the less cold midweek blip shows snow spreading from the west later on wednesday and there is another very cold spell towards the end of this week with further snow showers and severe frosts continuing into early next week..I would call that an upgrade..hope it continues!:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

12_54_preciptype.png

12_120_preciptype.png

12_132_preciptype.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_162_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

12_114_ukthickness.png

12_114_ukthickness850.png

th.jpeg

yep - the mild keeps getting thrown out

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

One thing iv notice about GFS this winter it has been more amplified this Winter than the EC which is strange usually the other way around, but sadly when the GFS has shown more amplification it slowly loses it run by run to be more inline with EC this has happened a few times during are Northerly outbreaks.

Yes its been strange because its normally the GFS which is often flatter upstream. Don't discount the GFS trend though , its really how much dig we can see upstream in that troughing to force some ridging more ne ahead of it and a shortwave heading se through the UK.

Energy distribution in these scenarios is poorly handled by the models. Theres I would say enough time to extend the cold given the timeframes but its going to be a struggle to hold on to that , perhaps a few days but the Atlantic looks in no mood to be denied at the moment.

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2 hours ago, Lynxus said:

Good olde La Nina,

Its funny how this place changes from WESTERLIES EVERYWHERE! to cold in a matter of hours.

One thing ive noticed year on year is that the models hate having to deal with any form of blocking or long term cold.
Anything further out than a few days and they always seem to point to a warmer west and the Atlantic taking control.

The models just cant cope with any other setup. hence the tendency to constantly push back towards it.

Granted, there are signs of extremely brief milder days but they seem to keep getting push 

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1 minute ago, andymusic said:

yep - the mild keeps getting thrown out

The Gfs 12z really sparked my enthusiasm for an upgraded cold shot, especially in terms of longevity..hope its right..

Ps..great post Phil nw:)

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