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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Extreme FI of course so just for a bit of fun, but the GFS 18z throws out this, erm, extreme chart at around the +360h timeframe.  Wonderful HLB in place but unfortunately we still manage to catch the zonal maglev! 

In seriousness though, it's interesting to see a relatively persistent pattern of HLB blocking modelled in the longer range, should provide encouragement that something cold could be on the cards post-Christmas. 

 

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0Z GFS seems to have Atlantic powering through but not as strongly as the 18Z. Hints at high building to the N/NE but quickly snuffed out by the atlantic at 200H. Seems they're overegging these lows. Saw a 935mbar low just off greenland. seems unlikely. However if that 935mbar low helps some WAA west of the UK, that could be interesting. Going to make for an interesting week of model watching

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6 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

0Z GFS seems to have Atlantic powering through but not as strongly as the 18Z. Hints at high building to the N/NE but quickly snuffed out by the atlantic at 200H. Seems they're overegging these lows. Saw a 935mbar low just off greenland. seems unlikely. However if that 935mbar low helps some WAA west of the UK, that could be interesting. Going to make for an interesting week of model watching

Not had a look at the models in a while but certainly intriguing with the eagerness to build +ve heights to north / east, perhaps this is the lag result of high amplitude MJO phases and there’s room for models to play with more amplification - we could enter something much colder before Xmas. I for one think that is plausible, model watching this year has taken a decidedly different turn to what we have been used to. :) 

92B6C834-FE95-4CAD-90F3-A1B65DAE23E1.thumb.png.908a0bd71dff2483d2185439fca83f20.png

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I haven't had much chance to look at the outputs this morning but there is nothing surprising about the ecm contours and anomalies. And I can confirm that SIdneys cockles are warming nicely

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.c3a6d28ebb117c6e445125b6dc0ed282.png

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.e6a798a889552f107736eeddcd49d8ad.png

Edited by knocker
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Interesting GFS this morning. 

Whilst the ECM goes "mild" at T+144 and stays mild, the Atlantic never gets in on the GFS til low res. 

Lots to be resolved and although  you would feel the return to milder weather may have the odds in its favour, it's not an open and shut case. 

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2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Interesting GFS this morning. 

Whilst the ECM goes "mild" at T+144 and stays mild, the Atlantic never gets in on the GFS til low res. 

Lots to be resolved and although  you would feel the return to milder weather may have the odds in its favour, it's not an open and shut case. 

I think you're right. There's huge ensemble scatter again but a lot of the members are mild, it has to be said.

5a2e369db6460_ScreenShot2017-12-11at07_40_19.thumb.png.124888a0db30a4afb4fb916f5b33bc45.png

A lot to play though for with such uncertainty beyond T144

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The Ecm 00z brings some relief for the struggling December daffs and a certain cornish squirrel..looks like something milder is indeed lurking in the woodshed.:santa-emoji:

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It does look like an Atlantic attack is imminent ! However how you get there looks different across the big 3, the ECM is most progressive and is much quicker with bringing in milder conditions.

The GFS keeps the candle burning for cold much longer with a chance of a shortwave cutting se, perhaps some wintry interest there.

The UKMO is between the GFS and ECM at T144hrs.

The GEFS shows a small cluster of support for the GFS op but given the Euros are less interested its a lower probability solution although its possible we might end up with a halfway house like the UKMO.

Still time for changes and the ECM has in recent weeks often been the most progressive output but its hard to see the Atlantic being repelled unless the GFS trend accelerates further with  a stronger ridge to the ne and more upstream trough disruption.

Interestingly it looks like yet again temps will drop towards the weekend  which has been the case for the last few weeks.:cold-emoji:

 

 

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Looking at the GEFS 00z postage stamps (cant post picture) ,rather than atlantic onslaught there looks to be a good chance of high pressure over us as we go through week 2, not a cold high but none the less chilly nights and fine days. There are a good few members going for the mild wet muck but by no means have they got the manopoly on it.

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24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It does look like an Atlantic attack is imminent ! However how you get there looks different across the big 3, the ECM is most progressive and is much quicker with bringing in milder conditions.

The GFS keeps the candle burning for cold much longer with a chance of a shortwave cutting se, perhaps some wintry interest there.

The UKMO is between the GFS and ECM at T144hrs.

The GEFS shows a small cluster of support for the GFS op but given the Euros are less interested its a lower probability solution although its possible we might end up with a halfway house like the UKMO.

Still time for changes and the ECM has in recent weeks often been the most progressive output but its hard to see the Atlantic being repelled unless the GFS trend accelerates further with  a stronger ridge to the ne and more upstream trough disruption.

Interestingly it looks like yet again temps will drop towards the weekend  which has been the case for the last few weeks.:cold-emoji:

 

 

Yep, not convinced of a Atlantic mild outcome. ECM too progressive yet again, GFS sort of in between. The best charts for the cold to hang on is from the Canadian Model. At day 10 it splits the not too powerful Atlantic jet and keeps much of Europe  including the British Isles in a colder surface flow.

C

GEMOPEU00_240_9.png

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24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure building up from the south

ukm2.2017121800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.e6769ccef87fd76cca4efdb881ccd222.png

I wonder whether there is a chance this high pressure will be able to ridge NE towards Christmas or whether it will simply get squashed by the jet riding over the top?  :cc_confused:

It certainly appears there is a possibility of more anti cyclonic weather sitting over the UK during week 2.  Seasonal if nothing else...

 

 

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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The GEFS 00z mean shows strong support for the Azores high ridging up across the uk next week, especially the southern half. .... looks quite settled and only trends more unsettled from the northwest later on..from around christmas day / boxing day. 

Edited by Frosty.
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20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep, not convinced of a Atlantic mild outcome. ECM too progressive yet again, GFS sort of in between. The best charts for the cold to hang on is from the Canadian Model. At day 10 it splits the not too powerful Atlantic jet and keeps much of Europe  including the British Isles in a colder surface flow.

C

GEMOPEU00_240_9.png

Yes I just saw its output, not bad at all. The ECM currently looks the most progressive out of the GFS/UKMO/GEM and strangely its been this way for the last few weeks which is a reversal of whats happened before with the GFS normally doing that.

I think the problem at the moment is the pattern change upstream with a breakdown of the strong amplified west USA ridge and the ejection east of the trough which is currently over the ne USA and east Canada. NOAA suggest the positive PNA might return some time next week with cold conditions returning to those areas.

Its likely we will though see a lot more energy heading east, the uncertainty is whether some of that breaks se or whether the lot goes ne or east.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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So thanks to my FB memories notification this morning this is what we were facing 1 year ago

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12 months on

UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.cd1f2fafc2451afa1d24a59e641b9106.png

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure building up from the south

ukm2.2017121800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.e6769ccef87fd76cca4efdb881ccd222.png

Thanks SS. Looks fairly benign there....doesn't appear we are going to get an Atlantic onslaught going by the model output this morning.

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43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes I just saw its output, not bad at all. The ECM currently looks the most progressive out of the GFS/UKMO/GEM and strangely its been this way for the last few weeks which is a reversal of whats happened before with the GFS normally doing that.

I think the problem at the moment is the pattern change upstream with a breakdown of the strong amplified west USA ridge and the ejection east of the trough which is currently over the ne USA and east Canada. NOAA suggest the positive PNA might return some time next week with cold conditions returning to those areas.

Its likely we will though see a lot more energy heading east, the uncertainty is whether some of that breaks se or whether the lot goes ne or east.

 

The UKMO extended at t168 for what its worth indicates a stronger build of pressure over the British Isles compared to ECM with a hint of a split in the energy heading east. However, these charts are a long way off and no doubt the evolution to change is all too uncertain in this instant. Great start to the winter for many in Blighty.

 C

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9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Having read some of the posts from last night and this morning, if you don't mind me saying some are in denial. No evidence as mentioned last night of the jet continuing to run NW-SE. Little evidence of any significant height rises to our NE. The return of a milder pattern was obvious to me as I mentioned a few days ago.

What we are likely to see is a rather typical UK winter weather pattern of a flat jetstream with low pressure systems tracking NE to the N of the UK. Milder SW,lys with the weather more settled further S and rather more unsettled and windy for Scotland.

If we do see pressure rising then it is more likely to occur over the UK bringing settled conditions and cold nights. The last thing I see is any cold, snowy E,ly whilst heights remain low to our NW/N.

Sadly I would be amazed if any of the above changed before xmas. My punt is a dry, settled Xmas but at least we should wake up to frost which is better than wind/rain.

I don't think anyone is in denial at all TEITS. We all fully expect a milder period in the run up to Christmas, no one seems to be disputing that. It's after Christmas that is the period of interest, based upon the thoughts of GP and Tamara, and also the 16-30 day MO outlook which still states:

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Dec 2017 to Monday 8 Jan 2018:
During the Christmas period we are likely to see a transition from spells of wet and windy weather moving across the UK, towards more generally benign weather becoming established. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall.

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I can't seem to be able to upload the charts but surprised Wednesday evening through Thursday's snow event isn't being discussed.  Its showing again on the 6z GFS charts which are rolling out now.

Bitter cold here today......reached -9.5 at 9pm last night, warmed this morning to a balmy -1.5.  

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Taking a quick look at the Gfs   it does show a typical winter pattern  The Uk being under a Northwesterly, Which at  times    then drags colder uppers down the country, Bringing with it  with colder Episodes,  Thus bringing chilly days and snowfall  across some parts,  However these may    only be  briefly at times   ( which is good for me im sick of the stuff)    All in all not a bad outlook  and compared to some years  wonderful.

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Awaiting the eps clusters but the spreads at day 10 reveal an amplification off the eastern seaboard - wonder what the percentage will be ??

as the North Pacific ridge goes up again and the Canadian trough digs south again in response , we are seeing the jet strongly across the Atlantic (as a consequence of the temporary pull back of the Pacific ridge) with no Atlantic ridging evident - I think it’s incorrect to just assume this will verify. The atmosphere has been predisposed to amplify to our west thus far and it may well do so again once the upstream trough digs.

of course this is not currently the favoured route forward approaching xmas with a sinking zonal flow more likely as the Azores ridge sinks away and pulls back further south. 

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06z GFS in the higher res contiunes the theme of a 'rinse and repeat' for later this week, with another Northernly shot Thursday onwards. After the weekend, the Azores ridge then begins to extend towards our shores.

This is where the models then start to differ with the ECM sending heights into France and the Near continent with a westerly flow more likely

The GFS however is attempting to send it towards Iceland/Scandi, making some interesting synoptics later down the road. After that GFS goes full blown default with a ranging PV establishing over Canada and Greenland.

I can currently see no signs of Zonal or a ranging Atlantic is the output. The NH is really in a different state to the last few winters and I think models in the medium term are starting to hint at some changes in the upstream pattern. Although I think 120hr+ is FI

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