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Paul

Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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What will happen if this low misses all together. Will it draw colder winds from the north?

 

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52 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see some people regarding ARGEPE and AROME as lesser models. - they are not lesser, they are just short-range models so not used for medium term analysis. The ARGEPE in particular is at least the equal of the GFS at T24/T48. It usually has no truck at all with phantom marginal snow events, so worth taking seriously.

We now have a rather crazy situation at just T24 where there is not agreement on the track, and virtually no identical charts for T48.

So far on the 12Zs, I see the even more southerly track (heaviest snow in a line from St Albans through to Oxford and Brecon Beacons - backed by AROME, ARGEPE, HIRLAM and GEM), more favoured than the northerly one (heaviest snow Cambridge to Birmingham to Mid/N Wales, backed by GFS and NNM).

Afterwards, most models allow the area of snow to drift south of the M4, with most southern counties from Dartmoor east affected (perhaps not the coast), except a little variance on how much the SE is affected. This is going to be a very tricky area to forecast. We know from ordinary rain events that it is very hard to predict how quickly an active front will lose intensity, and so the whole of the south may wake up on Monday morning to 6 inches of snow or nothing.

 

Agree..MWB..

aprege' is a non fluctuation @24/36hrs out and is normaly the fruition mod..in such situ..ie slider/battle cold/mild factions!!!..

M4-corridoor, looking defined-as per..

Although im taking a 10 mile southerly track atm into mind as the feature rolls in...with mild sector mixing imo looking less influential!!..

Due to statics and aranged over-heads!!??..

We' ll see?

Edited by tight isobar
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Delete. Wrong thread, oops

Edited by Danny*
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Euro4 continues with the southward shift.!

 

BBE2D55C-4C83-4314-8466-F5F9EF3BEA0D.gif

0B550EBD-0E37-4D35-B3AC-673496DF979E.jpeg

And hot off the press - ECM joins the party ! 

 

24586508-212B-482C-B36C-BE4144B33458.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
Addition of model output (12z ECM)
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Quite quiet on here this evening perhaps people are out having their staff Christmas parties! 

Midweek looking unsettled, wet and windy but the weekend should improve with high pressure moving back into the west. 

image.png

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Two GFS runs (6Z/12Z) on a trot now, have formed a low SW of ireland next weekend, cutting it off and then dropping it like a stone through Iberia into North Africa, not sure if i've ever seen that before.

 

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Now that Christmas day is in range of the Gfs it's going to be fun viewing what the big day has in store..currently it looks like a white Christmas for some of us!:drunk::cold-emoji::santa-emoji:

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

12_360_preciptype.png

12_384_preciptype.png

12_384_mslp850.png

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 is pretty good- would take that with open arms !

IMG_2242.thumb.PNG.1ed719559b3b260ceb2997c6aa8ff941.PNG

The 216 is excellent if we can get some trough disruption SE

 

Yep, temps dropping on the near continent.  

ECH0-216.GIF?09-0

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 is pretty good- would take that with open arms !

IMG_2242.thumb.PNG.1ed719559b3b260ceb2997c6aa8ff941.PNG

The 216 is excellent if we can get some trough disruption SE

 

Have a feeling it may be a while to get a trigger to help fire the bullet though.

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 is pretty good- would take that with open arms !

IMG_2242.thumb.PNG.1ed719559b3b260ceb2997c6aa8ff941.PNG

The 216 is excellent if we can get some trough disruption SE

 

Looks V cold. If skies are clear we could see some intense frosts.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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At 240, one word springs to mind.....'primed'!

ECH1-240.GIF?09-0 ECH0-240.GIF?09-0

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42 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Quite quiet on here this evening perhaps people are out having their staff Christmas parties! 

Midweek looking unsettled, wet and windy but the weekend should improve with high pressure moving back into the west. 

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A lot of members now in the regionals i believe- where some of the posts that have been removed from here should have gone wrt the snow event chat.

Please only model talk in here.

Thankyou.:)

Edited by phil nw.
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Nice to see the cold air heading back south again following a less cold midweek blip, looks better than the Ecm 00z.:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone got precipitation charts from ukmo!!wana see how far noth the precipitation goes!!thanks

Unfortunately is all gone South snow line now south of Coventry I'm sorry shaky and the low moves south.

Edited by FiftyShadesofWine
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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone got precipitation charts from ukmo!!wana see how far noth the precipitation goes!!thanks

Unfortunately, due to a data transmission issue we're currently not receiving the data for the Met-Office global model. We're hoping the data will be available again soon.

It seems they are currently offline. Never mind - they only show 72, 96 and 120 hours ahead as far as I can see.

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11 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Unfortunately is all gone South snow line now south of Coventry I'm sorry shaky and the low moves south.

The 12Z ECM and the NMM Output begs to differ:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.12323826574d85884b2baaae4eac3555.pngimage.thumb.png.b3b433cc6ab84cb2217cb3850722455d.pngnmm_uk1-1-20-1_zes4.pngnmm_uk1-1-21-1_uyz7.png

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There an hours difference between the precip charts. Not much fifference that I can see.

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A pretty chilly looking GEFS 12z mean with high pressure influence increasing from next weekend, surface cold,  frosty nights, crisp bright days for many but more changeable across the north. Then later the high is replaced by lower heights further northwest becoming more extensive

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Evening all :)

Looking a deal further ahead, the ECM 12Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

GEM 12Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?12

GFS 12Z Control at the same time:

gens-0-1-240.png

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

gfs-0-240.png?12

Variations on a theme if I'm being honest. The GFS Control looks a little progressive but the others all have a hint of rising heights over Scandinavia and while GEM does its usual of overblowing Atlantic LPs, neither GFS OP nor ECM scream a raging zonal Atlantic. Indeed, the Atlantic systems look weak and flabby in contrast to what you'd expect in midwinter. 

To be fair, a glance at the 12Z Ensembles suggests three likely paths - the Atlantic in charge, pressure rising from the south and pressure rising to the NE. I wouldn't rule any out for the run up to Christmas at this time. Perhaps we'll get a big HP centred right over us and some serious midwinter inversion with fog and severe frost for all.

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Most striking point of note on the extended EPS is the re-emergence of the Euro -ve anomaly - expect a better London graph later.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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