The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[mother nature rocks]

13 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Yep... though I am using Meteociel and Weatheronline and neither have it updated for 18z yet. Is there a better more up to date source ?

No it was from 12z still ,but have every faith it won’t deviate at this range.

[MKN]

Gfs had nothing reaching wales till midnight so be interesting to see how this area of precip goes. May mean snowfall starts hour or 2 early for some.

[Richard Fisher]

15 minutes ago, jimben said:

 

One of you is wrong lol

My ol man is gritting the M5 and has been told to concentrate on gritting South of Worcester. Revised Met Office warnings should be issued shortly. 

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

My ol man is gritting the M5 and has been told to concentrate on gritting South of Worcester. Revised Met Office warnings should be issued shortly. 

Strange call if so the freezing temps will still be further north ultimately. 

[chillyblast]

-3c near St Neots right now, very cold, my house is actually in Northants - is there going to be much in it between East Beds and Northants? I might go back lol

[kmanmx]

5 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

My ol man is gritting the M5 and has been told to concentrate on gritting South of Worcester. Revised Met Office warnings should be issued shortly. 

Doesn't mean north of Worcester will have no snow, perhaps just less than south. Could still be significant accumulations north of Worcester, and pretty much all the charts are suggesting this to be the case.

Or you know, he could have been told that because someone else has been sent to do north of Worcester.

[shaky]

Arome out to 7am and snow enters the midlands!!!actually arome is a beauty 10cms widely across the midlands!!

Edited December 9, 2017 by shaky

[MKN]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Arome out to 7am and snow enters the midlands!!!

Can you post charts when saying whats what as i dont have access atm 

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Arome out to 7am and snow enters the midlands!!!

And 18z Arpege looks very nice for nearly the entire midlands!. Hopefully higher res one out soon.. small pic for now (snippet from europe model)

 

 

Also I made a program for us all to help decipher whether it was a good snow event or now.

 

var snowdepth;
var snowsnowsuccess;

if(snowdepth <= 30cm && > 20cm)
{
	for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsnowsuccess <= 10; snowsuccess++)
	{
		console.log(snowsuccess + "/10");
	}
}
elseif(snowdepth <= 20cm && > 10cm)
{
	for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsuccess <= 8; snowsuccess++)
	{
		console.log(snowsuccess + "/10");
	}
}
elseif(snowdepth <= 10cm && > 5cm)
{
	for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsuccess <= 6; snowsuccess++)
	{
		console.log(snowsuccess + "/10");
	}
}
elseif(snowdepth <= 5cm && > 2cm)
{
	for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsuccess <= 3; snowsuccess++)
	{
		console.log(snowsuccess + "/10");
	}
}
else
{
	snowsuccess = 0;
}

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by kmanmx

[mother nature rocks]

Arpege 18z still bang on track. Enters south mids 4am and goes on and on and on. Great for mids!!! 

 

Are you you beat me to it K^^

Edited December 9, 2017 by mother nature rocks

[chillyblast]

Just now, kmanmx said:

And 18z Arpege looks very nice for nearly the entire midlands!. Hopefully higher res one out soon.. small pic for now (snippet from europe model)

 

Wow that a big hit. So doesn't matter, Northants or East Beds for me still a good chance of a dusting.

[Matty23]

I reckon it's loads more  north or ahead of schedule look at euro4  compared with the radar 

 

Euro4 saying 12am just getting into wales. It's not even 11pm and it's into Wales already.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Matty23

[MattStoke]

Next Sunday instead? 

[snowqueen1979]

No downgrade showing for South Birmingham in fact showing it starting at 4am now instead of 5am and still showing heavy snow till the afternoon.

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Next Sunday instead? 

Its a shame regarding midweek as should snow come tomorrow it would stick around for at least a week  ?

[MattStoke]

Just now, MKN said:

Its a shame regarding midweek as should snow come tomorrow it would stick around for at least a week  ?

Yeah. On very briefly less warm though. Up to 5 degrees. Generally cold all week with some frosts. Very cold the next couple of days and nights.

[kmanmx]

Okay I might have to pull an all nighter. I'm too excited.

[Sparkiee storm]

haha he said most of the midlands misses out, then tries to back it up by snow covering all the Midlands, thanks that was a good laugh 

BTW, I'm sure you will get your decent snow event this winter, just have patience and stop the trolling.  

Edited December 9, 2017 by Sparkiee storm

[MKN]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Yeah. On very briefly less warm though. Up to 5 degrees. Generally cold all week with some frosts. Very cold the next couple of days and nights.

Yes but some heavy rain expected so that will wash away most of any snow

[mother nature rocks]

8 minutes ago, Matty23 said:

I reckon it's loads more  north or ahead of schedule look at euro4  compared with the radar 

 

Euro4 saying 12am just getting into wales. It's not even 11pm and it's into Wales already.

Yes but front narrow band of ppn has hardly moved whereas the main band behind is catching it up readily 

[kmanmx]

Oh boy here it comes. This is some intense PPN 

 

 

It's perhaps slightly ahead of schedule, but Arpege 18z pretty close in terms of structure etc. PPN might even be a tad more intense than Arpege would suggest ?

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by kmanmx

[snowqueen1979]

Central weather just said between 5 to 10 cms widely up to 20cms on high ground. This could be our lucky day ! Hope everyone gets some in the Midlands.

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Oh boy here it comes. This is some intense PPN 

 

 

It's perhaps slightly ahead of schedule, but Arpege 18z pretty close in terms of structure etc. PPN might even be a tad more intense than Arpege would suggest ?

 

You can use that to compare with later timeframes as to what it may look like on radar when its closer...

Shame the heaviest stuff looks like staying just to the south of our region

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Oh boy here it comes. This is some intense PPN 

 

K..

Beat me to it!!

The prec behind is extremely heavy. If that arrives here we will be buried.

However, there was some talk of a warm front in front of the main rain-band, which they said has disappeared from the models, I hope we have not found it!.

Lets hope it is not a warm sector.! 

MIA

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

You can use that to compare with later timeframes as to what it may look like on radar when its closer...

Shame the heaviest stuff looks like staying just to the south of our region

Hmm yes, though the top image would suggest the heaviest precip is NW of Ireland (brighter green). The current radar doesn't really agree, the stronger stuff is further south. I think it just shows they can't model where the most intense PPN will be that accurately, especially the larger lower resolution models like GFS.