The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

I forgot to mention, I also have my own supercomputer weather model and it is better than all the rest. Infact latest 20z output (my model outputs 0.1km resolution models every hour of the day) is showing 30 to 40cm from M4 through to the northernmost extent of the midlands, and it is predicting this with a 100% certainty (with a 3% confidence interval).

Time for another tipple me thinks while the 21z rolls out from the Kmanmxinator2000 super computer.

 

 

 

 

That sounds brilliant mate!!!so the whole of the midlands seems to do well on your model run then?!!

[kmanmx]

Just now, shaky said:

That sounds brilliant mate!!!so the whole of the midlands seems to do well on your model run then?!!

Yes. The 21z just rolled out, huge upgrade, 60 to 70cm for 98% of midlands. 100% certainty (with a 2% confidence interval). 

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Yes. The 21z just rolled out, huge upgrade, 60 to 70cm for 98% of midlands. 100% certainty (with a 2% confidence interval). 

60-70 cm, wow that’s amazing....

the met office will soon be after your super computer and you’ll be a millionaire ????

??

[kmanmx]

5 minutes ago, shotski said:

60-70 cm, wow that’s amazing....

the met office will soon be after your super computer and you’ll be a millionaire ????

??

You'd think so but the chief forecaster wasn't too impressed with my confidence intervals. Apparently they normally expect 90% and above. Some people are never happy. 

In other news  santa tripped over the plug to my supercomputer so the 22z is a write off, but should be back online for the 23z.

Edited December 25, 2017 by kmanmx

[shaky]

Its funny you mention kmnanx that your model predicts large amounts cos the latest icon 18z upgrades further with 20-25cms of snow for midlands compared to 15-20 from the last run!!does it show snow from start to finish on your run or rain to snow!!

[kmanmx]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its funny you mention kmnanx that your model predicts large amounts cos the latest icon 18z upgrades further with 20-25cms of snow for midlands compared to 15-20 from the last run!!does it show snow from start to finish on your run or rain to snow!!

I sell some of my data to the ICON scientists so no big surprise to see them pick up on the trend. Expect further ammendments towards 70cm as we approach T-0h. The kmanmxinator2000 is still showing 2 to 3mm of rain on the frontal edge, but this frontal edge moves across the region at 300 to 400mph at the precipitation cloud height so it only last the briefest of moments, and then it's snow from then onwards.

Edited December 25, 2017 by kmanmx

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

I sell some of my data to the ICON scientists so no big surprise to see them pick up on the trend. Expect further ammendments towards 70cm as we approach T-0h. The kmanmxinator2000 is still showing 2 to 3mm of rain on the frontal edge, but this frontal edge moves across the region at 300 to 400mph at the precipitation cloud height so it only last the briefest of moments, and then it's snow from then onwards.

Wow icon suggests a brief period of rain aswell before it turns to snow!!for bout an hour i would say!!its defo further north compared to 12z!!more in line with ecm!!ecm goes with 15cms of snow though!!

Edited December 25, 2017 by shaky

[shaky]

Gfs pickiing up on some really heavy snow for.wales and the midlands tomorrow night!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes shaky, GFS seems further north, 3am Wednesday looks great for NW of region, moving east and south during Wednesday AM

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs pickiing up on some really heavy snow for.wales and the midlands tomorrow night!!

 

[Terminal Moraine]

Sleet here now with the temperature having fallen from 8.3c at 1800 to 2.4c at 2145.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes just noticed myself to letting the mutt out.

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

 

Strong winds to go with all that snow and the wind chill

[Supacell]

I have to say from an IMBY point of view I prefer the GFS prediction.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Supacell

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Supacell said:

I have to say from an INBY point of view I prefer the GFS prediction.

and me, but to be fair, it probably is someone else's turn, south of M4 maybe this time

10th Dec though ruled!

[fizz511]

36 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

I sell some of my data to the ICON scientists so no big surprise to see them pick up on the trend. Expect further ammendments towards 70cm as we approach T-0h. The kmanmxinator2000 is still showing 2 to 3mm of rain on the frontal edge, but this frontal edge moves across the region at 300 to 400mph at the precipitation cloud height so it only last the briefest of moments, and then it's snow from then onwards.

What?! ?

Has it been on the Christmas sherry??

[shaky]

Hirlam upgrade on 18z run!!15-20cms widely and up to 25cms!!

[Supacell]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and me, but to be fair, it probably is someone else's turn, south of M4 maybe this time

10th Dec though ruled!

10th Dec was rubbish here, we got about a cm or two where areas 10 miles south had 4 inches. 

[kmanmx]

2 minutes ago, fizz511 said:

What?! ?

Has it been on the Christmas sherry??

Maybe...

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Hirlam upgrade on 18z run!!15-20cms widely and up to 25cms!!

 

Hirlam does look pretty epic. And Hirlam was also one of the most accurate models a few weeks back... 

 

If Hirlam is correct, tomorrow/wed morning will be one to remember for much of the midlands.

Edited December 25, 2017 by kmanmx

[Matty23]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Hirlam upgrade on 18z run!!15-20cms widely and up to 25cms!!

Any pics of the hirlam??

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Maybe...

 

 

Hirlam does look pretty epic. And Hirlam was also one of the most accurate models a few weeks back... 

 

If Hirlam is correct, tomorrow/wed morning will be one to remember for much of the midlands.

Its funny cos since you mentioned the upgrade on your model all other models are upgrading the snowfall aswell!!

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hirlam upgrade on 18z run!!15-20cms widely and up to 25cms!!

snowmaggeddon http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?map=430

Edited December 25, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

10th Dec was rubbish here, we got about a cm or two where areas 10 miles south had 4 inches. 

had around 4 inch or 10cms here

[kmanmx]

4 minutes ago, Matty23 said:

Any pics of the hirlam??

Can you see Gif images ?

https://i.imgur.com/tOu4SwS.gifv

 

Bit on the edge for Leicester, IMBY says I want a 30 mile budge east

Edited December 25, 2017 by kmanmx

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe few hours of Cheshire Gap streamer 'window', I'm watching for early Thursday