The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Can you see Gif images ?

https://i.imgur.com/tOu4SwS.gifv

 

Bit on the edge for Leicester, IMBY says I want a 30 mile budge east

I think leicester just gets into that 15-20 cms kmanmx!!

[Matty23]

So what's ppls thorts on shropshire this time around 

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

I think leicester just gets into that 15-20 cms kmanmx!!

Yeah it does currently, but it's quite on the edge I think ? we're right near the warmer air.. just a bit east and it's like 4 or 5c I think. So my point is if it nudges west even 10 or 20 miles it might be a rain only event for us atleast until later into wed morning around 5am onwards as it slides south east with the cold. 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Yeah it does currently, but it's quite on the edge I think ? we're right near the warmer air.. just a bit east and it's like 4 or 5c I think. So my point is if it nudges west even 10 or 20 miles it might be a rain only event for us atleast until later into wed morning around 5am onwards as it slides south east with the cold. 

Does your model show the mild sector further east and south!!arpege further south so far with the mild sector!!

Edited December 25, 2017 by shaky

[MattStoke]

Hmm. Really not much agreement from the models for this system.

 

[WillinGlossop]

Arome going for 15-18cm here.....hirlam 7-10cm.... gfs 7-10cm....xcweather 10-17cm....weather.us ecm 10 dayer going for 4-6 inches..... we shall see.... if I get anything I’ll be happy for snow around Christmas....

Edited December 25, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[shaky]

Arome slightly further south at 21 hours so far..

[northwestsnow]

25 minutes ago, shaky said:

Does your model show the mild sector further east and south!!arpege further south so far with the mild sector!!

there is no mild sector mate.

[shaky]

Arome gives snow for the whole of the midlands!!

[WillinGlossop]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Arome gives snow for the whole of the midlands!!

Arome gives 10-15cm here 15-20cm higher up....

[Staffordshire]

Could someone send Arome charts please, I am on phone and always seem to struggle getting them up. Cheers.

[shaky]

Am waiting for kmnamx 11pm update lol!!

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Could someone send Arome charts please, I am on phone and always seem to struggle getting them up. Cheers.

[chris pawsey]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Am waiting for kmnamx 11pm update lol!!

I think the Kmnamxinator2000 must be struggling with the Christmas data loss and lack of balloons 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, fizz511 said:

What?! ?

Has it been on the Christmas sherry??

Are you honestly believing it. 

My computer model says no snow for the Midlands better luck next time. 

[MattStoke]

Euro4 still pretty poor.

[kmanmx]

Sorry guys I was a bit late on the kmanmxinator2000. It took a bit longer than expected after santa tripped on the plug for the 22z. Anyway the 23z is in, it's sticking to it's guns at 60-70cm but now more clarity on higher ground, Derbyshire peak district looking at up to 90cm above 300m. Certainty 100%, confidence interval up to 4%. 

Lowest accumulation levels are Coventry at 58.4cm as the supercomputer picked up on some anomolies in that area, supposedly a mass burning of bad tasting mince pies by someone named Mr S Clause, bringing 2 meter temps up a tad. Everywhere else the high side of 60cm.

[WillinGlossop]

1c heavier precip still icy rain/sleet... leaving icy deposits on dustbins.... that is all... 

kmanmx think it needs to be recalibrated to mm from cm... that sounds about right then ie 9cm in Peak District.... 

Edited December 25, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Sorry guys I was a bit late on the kmanmxinator2000. It took a bit longer than expected after santa tripped on the plug for the 22z. Anyway the 23z is in, it's sticking to it's guns at 60-70cm but now more clarity on higher ground, Derbyshire peak district looking at up to 90cm above 300m. Certainty 100%, confidence interval up to 4%. 

Lowest accumulation levels are Coventry at 58.4cm as the supercomputer picked up on some anomolies in that area, supposedly a mass burning of bad tasting mince pies by someone named Mr S Clause, bringing 2 meter temps up a tad. Everywhere else the high side of 60cm.

So same as the 21 hours update mate!!leicester looking good throughoit then!!euro4 keeps it south slightly but no mild sector as a result!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

9 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Sorry guys I was a bit late on the kmanmxinator2000. It took a bit longer than expected after santa tripped on the plug for the 22z. Anyway the 23z is in, it's sticking to it's guns at 60-70cm but now more clarity on higher ground, Derbyshire peak district looking at up to 90cm above 300m. Certainty 100%, confidence interval up to 4%. 

Lowest accumulation levels are Coventry at 58.4cm as the supercomputer picked up on some anomolies in that area, supposedly a mass burning of bad tasting mince pies by someone named Mr S Clause, bringing 2 meter temps up a tad. Everywhere else the high side of 60cm.

Only 58.5cm in Solihull according to your snow accumulation charts. I guess someone’s been burning bad tasting mince pies in this town too! 

Hoping for a significant upgrade on the 24Z kmanmxinator2000! 58.5cm is simply not good enough  

[shaky]

Latest icon 21 hours has even heavier snow than the previous run!!midlands gets battered and leicester is in the sweet spot lol

[fizz511]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Are you honestly believing it. 

My computer model says no snow for the Midlands better luck next time. 

Hmmm. Obviously irony is not your strong point. Only rudeness.

And touching as your faith in your computer is, last time we had ‘no snow for the Midlands’ forecast, I woke up to this. 

 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, fizz511 said:

Hmmm. Obviously irony is not your strong point. Only rudeness.

And touching as your faith in your computer is, last time we had ‘no snow for the Midlands’ forecast, I woke up to this. 

 

Steady on, neither is sarcasm yours? More seriously a fair swathe of the Midlands are guaranteed to see a good event that is clear. A similar sweet zone to the last time I’d say. N/NW Midlands the more northern lot of this thread may not do so well as the bulk of precipitation appears it wants to go S of you, by 12z-18z of today we should have a v good idea. 

[BleakMidwinter]

9 hours ago, Matty23 said:

So what's ppls thorts on shropshire this time around 

I think it depends on the exact course of the snow* - most models seem to have shifted in the last 12 hours a bit further south and east so it seems to hit al of the region except Shropshire! We're just clipped off the top corner, it currently looks like.

BUT... not all models clip us off. Some just sneak us in. So I reckon for Shropshire we're looking at headcasting: if you step outdoors and snowflakes land on your head then you've got some of the snow; if not, then not.


* (Opinion from the Dept of Stating the Bleedin' Obvious. Other opinions are available from local High Street stockists)

[WillinGlossop]

Looks like 400-500m has snow cover.... bright white bleaklow, kinder scout...snake pass white.... very orange sky out now suns up.... showers about...1c...