Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No this run has bust already.

You couldn't make it up really.

Oh well, it is what it is ...

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Agreed. No way the ECM will be that wrong at that stage. No Northerly the middle of next week, might have to wait for another attempt later next week.

It's + 144 not 24 or 72 of course it could be wrong

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows parts of America going into the freezer later next week as the first major storm of the season potentially strikes only time will tell what effect this will have on our weather

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Any reason why EC is blowing these lows UP?? its hard to go against the EC at this stage

This particular one is due to a drop of some lower heights across the developing ridge and into the general circulation which is from a warm source and therefore the system deepens. if you look at the NH profile from T0 you will see that the initial low isn't going to do anything much and the retrogression would have likely been fine. however, a small shortwave drifts up from really warm waters and this is what screws us up. I have a suspicion that last week, this was modelled to be carried ne on the jet into the eastern seaboard and help throw some serious WAA up the west side of Greenland. 

[fromey]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

GFS shows parts of America going into the freezer later next week as the first major storm of the season potentially strikes only time will tell what effect this will have on our weather

Will that not fire up the jet stream?

[nick sussex]

The ECM is better than this mornings output .

Trigger shortwave now forming off the upstream low, it’s all about the upstream phasing now to sharpen up the pattern to the west and send that shortwave se.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

You couldn't make it up really.

Oh well, it is what it is ...

Which is a shame because that cold pool is mighty impressive to the North, it does look better at 168 and because of the huge cold pool, there is some leeway, The Nort could still hit the jackpot yet.

[mulzy]

ECM at 168 - trough is disrupting favourably - could be a decent end to the run!

[weirpig]

Lots of knee jerk reactions again  I expect another few days of models disagreeing with one another. What will be interesting is the extended ukmo  later tonight. It will be crucial! ( not really but I thought I'd build the suspense ) 

[Summer Sun]

ECM t168 looking pretty cold for our friends in Scotland

[northwestsnow]

168 looks comically bad- a million miles from GFS at same timeframe...

[Daniel*]

Winter returns to Scotland with a punch at T+168 I wouldn’t put the red marker through this run yet, what’s the odds we get a good day 10. The Atlantic low is incredibly frustrating it’s just stationary. 

[Summer Sun]

Less cold for some western parts at t192 still cold for Scotland and the east

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No this run has bust already.

you do realise that the "bust" is caused by a shortwave feature (that the GFS doesn't have)  which is 6 days away from even existing?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Less cold for some western parts at t192 still cold for Scotland and the east

Way better than 00Z! no horrid low like at same time, but no where near as good as GFS

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

you do realise that the "bust" is caused by a shortwave feature (that the GFS doesn't have)  which is 6 days away from even existing?

I never elaborated on why its bust, I just said its bust, and it duly has.

[A.J]

Just now, bobbydog said:

you do realise that the "bust" is caused by a shortwave feature (that the GFS doesn't have)  which is 6 days away from even existing?

exactly, and on a more general note, some reactions and 'declarations' in this thread are comical and one has to question the sanity of a few!.......but hey ho BD, we're forgetting the golden rule.....the model outputs dictate the weather 

[nick sussex]

The ECM goes a bit AWOL later on but earlier it’s an improvement and it’s hardly covered itself in glory over the last few days.

Even this run delivers a snow event to the north with a slow moving front.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I never elaborated on why its bust, I just said its bust, and it duly has.

In which case, we can all thank our lucky stars that the models don't control the weather...

[bobbydog]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I never elaborated on why its bust, I just said its bust, and it duly has.

no you didn't. but i did.

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

This is the ECM going toward the GFS ... slowly ... GFS has been the more consistent I think? 

Hmm well EC is better than what it was in the mornin’. GFS does strike me to have been quite consistent up to T144, I don’t know whether anyone can say that definitively?

Edited November 29, 2017 by Daniel*

[Scandinavian High.]

ECM slowly  edging in the right direction.

[Cloud 10]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

JFF (eye candy) P11 would certainly melt down the servers. Reverse zonal. 

 

A 1070 mb Arctic high.

 

This is the magnitude of that anomaly!

 

[northwestsnow]

Never lose those horrid euro heights on EC- its horrible.

Hope its wrong!!

[jvenge]

Lol. Where is this GFS consistent fairytale coming from?