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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
    35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Its like a big tug of war- lucky we have a bit more puff !!

    its still a midlands event- its just the bits around the fringes !

    Looks like on this run, ppn incoming at T66 temps -2 to 0 during the whole period, so should be plenty of snow action around here.

    GFSOPME12_66_4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    At 72/84 hours ??  Really ?

    Yes really , im not into lying

    More

    W COUNTRY SUN: Re earlier tweet, @metoffice snow warning now issued caters for risk N'rn Glos up into Midlands. Pls note ongoing large uncertainty re N/S boundary in warning zone of rain v snow (warning area based on ensemble spread in UKMO & ECMWF models)

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    The biggest issue for me at the moment is there is zero sign of any  much colder 850's pouring down to our east or continental Europe. Even at day 7/8 there's a serious lack of anything amongst the OP's and ensembles.

    Be a shame if we get a scandi high in the 10 day range and the uppers are pathetic!

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    For all those in the south, don't get sucked in, it's the hope that kills you:D:D

    I have to agree in your location, thats a little too far south for this set up, however i do hope you get something over next week or so.

    There is South and then SOUTH - Bournemouth and other coastal towns are not really in the running, But Hills further inland  Dartmoor etc do have opportunity as does Mendips etc 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

    It's a very vollitile set up they always are, these synoptics were common once , the usual places that got hit are ones being predicted today, only when the air stream was very potent was it more widespread which by today's' climate is very rare but still possible lol! 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    There is some really cold dense air spilling out of the arctic way to our NE on 12z gfs...

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Early next week the Gfs 12z proves you don't need ridiculously cold uppers to get ice days through surface cold with max temps of 0c..plenty of cold on the Gfs 12z with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, overnight frosts and ice..it's a lot more  wintry than we normally get!:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    wrong thread, delete

    Edited by I Cumbria Marra I
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    11 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

    Yes really , im not into lying

    More

    W COUNTRY SUN: Re earlier tweet, @metoffice snow warning now issued caters for risk N'rn Glos up into Midlands. Pls note ongoing large uncertainty re N/S boundary in warning zone of rain v snow (warning area based on ensemble spread in UKMO & ECMWF models)

    I’m quite surprised that they are using ens at such a short range 

    I guess it relates to the uncertainty re the ineteraction of the trough with the upper trough and also the small wedge of heights thrown up ahead of the slider which is varying in intensity 

    what chance do us mere mortals stand to make a call !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    If you go down the ukmo surely when that low exits with such a tight gradient on the northern flank it will pull in some moisture off the north Sea, unsure on effect on uppers though 

    Edit even worse case for South on gfs idea its a rain to snow event 

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I’m quite surprised that they are using ens at such a short range 

    I guess it relates to the uncertainty re the ineteraction of the trough with the upper trough and also the small wedge of heights thrown up ahead of the slider which is varying in intensity 

    what chance do us mere mortals stand to make a call !!

    might be a nowcast  blue !!

    ps GFS12Z looks really really cold mid term with some harsh frosts under the slack flow- up north its bitter!!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Dereham, Norfolk
  • Location: Dereham, Norfolk
    3 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Arpege just batters wales,midlands and east anglia on the 12z run!!!love to see accumulation charts for that!!

    where do i find the  Arpege

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Well GFS is pretty good overall.

    image.thumb.png.97ad0b210cf37c735757b80307d91e8f.png

    A fair bit of potential here. I know people have noted the lack of cold uppers (aside from tomorrow's arctic blast) however this is because heights over Russia going to the arctic are pumping mild air as far as Svalbard at times.

    In the 12z GFS there are signs of a change with cold air moving into the far NE Europe. Keep an eye out on this.

    The blocking to our west doesn't build enough but GFS as per usual blows up a low in NE Canada affecting ridging of the Azores high.

    So the ridging may be stronger then shown here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Here are my highlights of the coming days from the Gfs 12z which show a very wintry spell with a mix of snow showers, persistent snow, ice days, severe frosts, high windchill, not your typical uk mild gunk is it!????:santa-emoji:

    12_18_preciptype.png

    12_18_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_27_uk2mtmp.png

    12_42_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_18_ukthickness850.png

    12_27_ukthickness850.png

    12_27_preciptype.png

    12_42_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_51_uk2mtmp.png

    12_33_mslp850.png

    12_48_mslp850.png

    12_51_ukthickness850.png

    12_66_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_66_mslp500.png

    12_69_preciptype.png

    12_72_preciptype.png

    12_75_preciptype.png

    12_90_preciptype.png

    12_90_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_99_uk2mtmp.png

    12_99_mslp500.png

    12_123_uk2mtmp.png

    12_123_ukthickness850.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Gfs 12z still playing with the idea of blocking to the nne late on in the run . Does seem to becoming a recurring theme which hopefully bodes well in the next ten days or so

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A look at the MR nwxtra model It's so marginal as the precipitation moves in early Sunday.Where the main band is expected on this run across N.Ireland/Wales  and middle England.dp,s temperatures hover around zero in the centre of the complex low before it pivots away south.

    A snapshot of some charts

    viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;t

    viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;t

     

    evaporative cooling under low thickness and still air could be the key thing here and a few locations could get lucky with quite a decent covering.Higher elevations such as N.Wales mts and the Peaks look favoured on this output.A few hours of snow possible.

    With this marginality and still some differences in detail inter runs though we can see why no one can pin this down yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    At short range the ops would normally take precedence given their higher resolution but its clearly a horrible forecast given this slider is unusual, most we see don't engage troughing so close to the UK and then the shortwave to the sw will run east and cause another complication!

    Its so finely balanced that an error in phasing with the trough of just a couple of hours could cause big problems with the forecast.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

    5a29748bb022f_ScreenShot2017-12-07at16_57_24.thumb.png.a071f7d8473ce3aacc56d735efd4078a.png

    12z GFS ensemble mean for Sunday doesn't have the track as far south for the white stuff. Sorry guys n gals :sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    A look at the MR nwxtra model It's so marginal as the precipitation moves in early Sunday.Where the main band is expected on this run across N.Ireland/Wales  and middle England.dp,s temperatures hover around zero in the centre of the complex low before it pivots away south.

    A snapshot of some charts

    viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;t

    viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20171207;t

     

    evaporative cooling under low thickness and still air could be the key thing here and a few locations could get lucky with quite a decent covering.Higher elevations such as N.Wales mts and the Peaks look favoured on this output.A few hours of snow possible.

    With this marginality and still some differences in detail inter runs though we can see why no one can pin this down yet.

    That is much better than i was expecting!!thought it would be slightly more marginal than that!!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

    5a29748bb022f_ScreenShot2017-12-07at16_57_24.thumb.png.a071f7d8473ce3aacc56d735efd4078a.png

    12z GFS ensemble mean for Sunday doesn't have the track as far south for the white stuff. Sorry guys n gals :sorry:

    the gefs running at 32 km surely aren't going to upset anyone !

    the eps at 14 km are similar res to ukmo op. I suspect that's why they are using them.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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