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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 minute ago, warrenb said:

    Can we please stop having sly digs at people and just remark on the models.

    Yes I agree and no IMBY posts as this should be for the regional threads. 

     

    My prediction is the snow will be from Birmingham northwards but as others have already said its not yet set in stone.

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

    Posted Images

    30 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    How on Earth are you basing that on GFS 6z alone? 

    The EC this morning is much further S similarly ARPEGE model the overall trend is more a southern track compared to one which delivers nothing for the Midlands. 

    we dont all live in the south. us northerners would like some snow. we do exist..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    6z keeps a generally and cold theme out until the 17th on this run (bar a couple of rainy interludes as the jet swings se into Europe).

    We have a pocket of dense cold air across Scandy in FI- i always use that as a potential marker for scandy height rises :)

    edit and there she goes )

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Just as a side note gfs 6z looks a good run imo and an upgrade with heighths building towards iceland!!.sorry for going off topic!!!:sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    40 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    What do you expect, it is winter.

     

    7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Can we please stop having sly digs at people and just remark on the models.

    Make your mind up Warren! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    look at that little wedge of loveliness to the N

    gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.517588294680bb9f4145c573716b0bd7.png

    Caveat of it's fl, but still nice to see

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Gfs 6z..

    Giving a classic example of large lobe canadian vortex...but rises of heights alingned great ...and linking of pressure [email protected] around of heights.....

    Russian warmth 'again'...lead player and heights embeded @the pole

    gfsnh-0-264.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    Well BBC have just tweeted snow warning extended south, so maybe the Meto 6z runs are showing a shift the other way.

     

    Anyway on the 6z, FI we can see the issue is where is the lobe of PV going to be. Trouble with something that dense, just slight miscalculation by the model will be snowballed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    EC 00Z clusters

    T96:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120700_096.

    5 clusters at D4 lol!! Does seem a growing consensus not to phase the slider too quickly and more agreement on a track a bit more to the SW (good call if right SM!!), which would pull the snow-risk zone south a bit.

    T192:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120700_192.

    Very good agreement clearly on a fresh Atlantic ridge but looks minor at this stage - weak NWly on its back, snow is going to mount up on high ground...

    T240:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120700_240.

    A slight shift from last night - looking to flatten out, still in a NWly flow for the UK but Atlantic high anomaly dropping (need more runs to find continuity)

    T300:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120700_300.

    Seems like a shift to the Atlantic but watch the NE corner on cluster 1 - is an eastern block going to form? Otherwise cluster 2 is westerly dominated, and cluster 3 (minor cluster) is wintry with blocking west and north

    T360:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120700_360.

    Atlantic too strong on cluster 1 so block to east doesn't happen, but northern heights still in evidence on all three charts.

    All in all - there is general much more doubt over a longer term cold set-up, with the Atlantic showing much more energy than of late between D10-D15 - but it's not a complete ensemble flip and bearing in mind this is slightly at odds with previous ensemble runs, it merely increases the uncertainty of what will come after a fresh northerly at D8/D9. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Great GFS Fi, if this happened Xmas Would be very cold. All for fun but not without a chance.

    IMG_5566.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Well BBC have just tweeted snow warning extended south, so maybe the Meto 6z runs are showing a shift the other way.

     

    Anyway on the 6z, FI we can see the issue is where is the lobe of PV going to be. Trouble with something that dense, just slight miscalculation by the model will be snowballed.

    Is that shift south for sundays slider?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    10 minutes ago, sausage said:

    we dont all live in the south. us northerners would like some snow. we do exist..

    Hi sausage,

    I in now way have any resentment towards you folk the GFS 06z looks outlandish when comparing to everything else. 

    My location is seeing the longest snowless (cover) streak in my lifetime - it’s been almost five years and I’ve seen nothing but a dusting since, we southerners really need to be redeemed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Glacier Point said:

    .and is if by magic, GFS op in final stages shifts the PV dramatically westwards. Lots of uncertainty approaching I sense as models start to sniff the broad scale shifts upstream. 

    Is the broadscale pattern not conjucive to a +NAO set up stewart?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Not bad, for what is (I believe) traditionally one the most mobile westerly spells:

    h850t850eu.png

    And finishing up with a retrogression signal...not to be take too seriously, though.:cold-emoji:

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    It would not support a +NAO pattern.

    GFS op also splitting the lower and middle stratospheric vortex.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Now this is becoming a big trend . Yes I no FI and all that but it was at around 384hrs a few days ago and now it all starts at about 288hrs so it's getting closer . The blog on the BBC website about La Niña ties in with these charts . And they mentioned 2010 ?

    Edit : charts wrong way round on dates

    IMG_0742.PNG

    IMG_0743.PNG

    IMG_0744.PNG

    IMG_0745.PNG

    IMG_0746.PNG

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Today it started at 13C at 8.30am currently it's 10C with clear blue skies. Tonight & Friday brings the best chance of snow in Wales except here on the south coast where we may miss the showers altogether with some shelter from northerly winds by the mountains behind us (as is often the case in this set up unless any substantial features form, such as a trough) leaving it dry, cold but sunny. Saturday is mostly dry and sunny but cold again and by Sunday it's now likely to turn wetter (although latest GFS suggests rain won't be as heavy and more patchy along the coast) it'll also become mild again with brisk southwesterly then westerly winds, a high of 11C. Thereafter, colder but drier again from Monday with highs between 5-8C so a little below average at times. 

    image.png

    image.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    As MWB showed above, the amplified blocked solution on the fi gfs has about 20% eps support which is down from 50% yesterday 00z run and not in line with yesterday’s 12z clustering late on so best to wait for some continuity to take effect 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    5 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

    No, there are no warnings yet for Sunday at all.

    Looking quickly (it is on the metoffice site, which is easy to navigate) it looks like they are now including the Cheshire gap streamer.

    Warning now issued for Sunday. 

    Thanks for posting clusters MWB, 5 clusters at day 4 shows Sunday is still going to chop and change a bit yet. 

    653BACF2-02F0-41D9-8D7A-4DC35806769E.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    27 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Gfs 6z..

    Giving a classic example of large lobe canadian vortex...but rises of heights aligned great ...and linking of pressure [email protected] around of heights.....

    Russian warmth 'again'...lead player and heights embeded @the pole

    gfsnh-0-264.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Given that the models have had this pesky wee LP going into anywhere between the Firth of Forth and the Bay of Biscay, predicting its eventual path must be giving human forecasters on hell of a migraine?

    Hey, ho; that's the good old British weather for you!:crazy:

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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