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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Looking at the ECM spreads the main one is to the west sw of the UK upto T144hrs suggesting there’s still room for changes after the first slider.

    In terms of the longer range the ensembles do seem more zonal although a small cluster suggest something from the east given the wind directions and associated dew points/temps.

    If the PV does eject eastwards then we’re going to need some energy heading se and not just over the top.

    Anyway that’s a way out and could still change, lots going on before that.

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
    42 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    You can't compare ecm 0z runs with 12z runs because there is only 1 frame per 24h for ecm, so there is a 12h difference between those frames. If you want to compare you have to compare with yesterday's 0z

    I understand that, but I could only find a 12z chart from yesterday in the thread. From memory if I did post yesterdays 0z it would show an even bigger adjustment south according to the ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Looking at the ECM spreads the main one is to the west sw of the UK upto T144hrs suggesting there’s still room for changes after the first slider.

    In terms of the longer range the ensembles do seem more zonal although a small cluster suggest something from the east given the wind directions and associated dew points/temps.

    If the PV does eject eastwards then we’re going to need some energy heading se and not just over the top.

    Anyway that’s a way out and could still change, lots going on before that.

    Dutch plumes show very little spread until the 17th

     

    eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Those wanting to moan (for some reason!), please head to the moans thread and leave it to just model discussion in here.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    1 minute ago, sausage said:

    very poor charts this morning north of midlands. a somewhat waste of good synoptics that always fails to produce.

    That's surely a bit of an exaggeration? Friday through Sunday:

    5a29039bb5050_ScreenShot2017-12-07at08_48_06.thumb.png.10751a16405828b64c893e0b65e41930.png

    5a2903aa43fd8_ScreenShot2017-12-07at08_48_25.thumb.png.f3365f7b0536a681b232f1f17f3cc812.png

     

    Next week:

    5a2903ba67215_ScreenShot2017-12-07at08_48_43.thumb.png.b30b81bbd7ed0d8d487ce59afe00f255.png

    5a2903c583d43_ScreenShot2017-12-07at08_49_09.thumb.png.2274db6042589a18da6d31f3a12bda3b.png

    And on:

    5a2903d405559_ScreenShot2017-12-07at08_49_58.thumb.png.67c361dd0bf0ff6396464614cc7e8dbf.png

     

    It's a tad much to describe that as 'very poor north of the Midlands'? The devil will be in the detail, but there's no need to be too despondent about this setup. What probably doesn't help is if peeps posts slightly insensitive messages hollering in delight at their 14 inches when someone else has a weeny amount.

    Anyway, the synoptics look pretty good to me generally over the next week. FI is rather uncertain but that's what FI is for ;)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    It does look as though the tropospheric forcing is going to wane somewhat over the next couple of weeks. This initiated by subdued Canadian/Greenland ridging- we haven't quite been able to get a proper sustained HLB in that locale. So in essence, we will most likely face a period whereby the jet heads N with energy going over the top of any mid latitude blocking feature as a lobe of Canadian vortex makes it presence ever more felt with its downstream effects towards our locale. Unfortunately we can't rely solely on Pacific ridging to help us out (as we've seen in preceding years).

    This period may take us up to and possibly through Christmas. What happens after is of interest...I suspect we'll go one of two ways- one pretty and one not so pretty. I suspect now is the time we have to sit back and hope that the strat can do its thing (as the back end of a few GFS runs have suggested).

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Has it all gone a little 'peary' during the night? If I peruse the models will I then have to opt for auto-defenestration?:cold-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    Gfs had Storm Caroline spot on 7days out.  

    Another date via reload of the Nly? I have to say with reading what Tamara has said last night and the METO longer range. I find it hard to bet against such a scenario. h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Has it all gone a little 'peary' during the night? If I peruse the models will I then have to opt for auto-defenestration?:cold-emoji:

    Looks good to me, good as in generally cold, only deep FI Gfs turns milder but a very exciting period is knocking on the door so to speak.:D:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    I do like the look of those two images from ICON for Sunday:

    image.thumb.png.5e5ac37b17c82968506b06277b3114e9.png   image.thumb.png.746cd95cbb3a68c71c9a19ec07567127.png

    Not so good for my location, or anyone south of the M4 for that matter, but plenty of happy people further north.

    Of course, the very best way to find out for sure if your area is going to turn white is to keep looking out of the window starting tonight....

     
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ok lets try clear some things up!!

    Through tonight into friday see's the conveyor' of precip-gaining momentum and shower activity on both the increase and transtion as polar air digs in behind the decaying milder air being now well pushed out via' the forementioned.as a result precip rapidly turns from wet to white (even lower levels) and accumulations highly likely in the process! With north-and west facing/exposed taking main impacts' although snow showers look likely to push well inland @times next 18-36 hrs and likely some suprise' ground accums.

     

     

    Sundays fun and games -still not fully resolved- although output imo is now quite close to the mark! However with scope for adjustment of perhaps 80/100 miles either north or  south of current modeled(Aprege) as a guide. This will be telling on todays suites! There is to many miniscule' dynamics for assurity atm as there is confusion of impacts due to both track align, and mild sector mixing. 'However' final formation will see impactual snow accumulate and 'no doubt' distruption..(all eyes on it)

    Lastly and 'perhaps' more importantly?! The northern hemisphercal state @present/going forwards!.. as a pick of random operational snapshot(ecm 240hrs)..we can see large-lobe vortex setting up at its favoured location in the winter months @canada not great synoptics if you live in the uk and crave notable winter weather!...

    However as highlighted above current n-hemispherical situ is in diabolics.  

    With projected attacks on the vortex at nearly every given angle with warm ir advection and flux aiming hard for the pole. So miss modeling and revert to format will come into play at any given time.....

    Although teleconections and the tropespheric/stratospheric state/states suggest these aligned attacks atm have the upper hand in final conclude...

    So going forward after the next 4/5 days antics, there is a whole lot of divergance on a bigger scale playing out, and a bigger array of options for 'perhaps' colder option than usual milder than we have had for some time....

    And output viewing is the best it has been for some time!!!

     

    17120812_0612.gif

    arpegeuk-45-90-0.pngaprege

    ECH1-240.gifecm

    Screenshot_2017-12-07-08-56-33.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Has it all gone a little 'peary' during the night? If I peruse the models will I then have to opt for auto-defenestration?:cold-emoji:

    Hmm it would seem so looking 10-14 days away regarding the nhp and jet pushing north???.im no expert but I guess some more zonal type weather was enevatable .that said getting past 72 atm is fraught with probs let alone a week or so.Also I think I must have misinterpreted tamaras and singularity great posts yesterday ete

    Edit-Great update from GP

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Track does look marginally further north, but the result still sees the same areas getting snow, with a few more locations north getting in on the action.

    EDIT: perhaps not, this does move the snow band/line further north.

    gfs-2-78.thumb.png.d96a6598cc252e3012aee952451b2162.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

     slight track north   slider i would have thought would be somewhere between ECM and GFS  

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Infact EC has rain moving in wed morning for pretty much everyone!!

    Anyway- hopefully plenty of snow for as many people as pos before then..

    It's totally expected though isn't it. We've been reading for a while now that it's going to be cold with "brief milder blips". That is exactly what's happening at T+144 on the ECM - a milder blip, for we are back in a potent northerly-westerly by T+168 and northerly by T+192. There's nothing to be particularly concerned about!!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Hmm nothing set in stone yet!!ecm has it further south!!ukmo inbetween!!

    horrible run for the midlands,,,think it will be wrong :)

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    horrible run for the midlands,,,think it will be wrong :)

    I bloody hope so!!differences start very early!!low is deeper by 5mb compared to ecm around the same time!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Possibility of heavy rain and windy conditions in the south on Monday with a deep low just over the channel.

    gfs-0-99-3h.png?6102-779.GIF?07-6

    But I would reduce FI to about 72 hours at the moment regarding these lows.

    Edited by radiohead
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
    10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Track does look marginally further north, but the result still sees the same areas getting snow, with a few more locations north getting in on the action.

    EDIT: perhaps not, this does move the snow band/line further north.

    gfs-2-78.thumb.png.d96a6598cc252e3012aee952451b2162.png

    Now thats much better 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Thunder Snow said:

    Now thats much better 

    Yes, the northern half of the country now looks more likely to do well out of this slider.. Enjoy :)

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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