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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    I think he knows that, all he has done is a conversion? Shows ~15cm of snow for quite a swathe of the Midlands. 

    It shows 15 inches, in the most affected areas.

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Infact EC has rain moving in wed morning for pretty much everyone!!

    Anyway- hopefully plenty of snow for as many people as pos before then..

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    It shows 15 inches, in the most affected areas.

    I’m not great with the colour scale, what it does show is quite significant snowfall/depths even to low levels in N/W Midlands in particular. It’s not been since seen 2013 in that part of the world, I think we may seen an amber warning for snow as quite densely populated regions seem to be affected. You also have to consider it’s been a long time since folk have had to adapt to adverse winter conditions, some indeed young drivers have never experienced it.

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    I’m not great with the colour scale, what it does show is quite significant snowfall/depths even to low levels in N/W Midlands in particular. It’s not been since seen 2013 in that part of the world, I think we may seen an amber warning for snow as quite densely populated regions seem to be affected. You also have to consider it’s been a long time since folk have had to adapt to adverse winter conditions, some indeed young drivers have never experienced it.

     

    Indeed. Although these charts do overdo it sometimes.

    I can't believe I'm chasing a potential snow event 3/4 days away. Most winters in London I could only dream about the sbow that's coming tomorrow!

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Infact EC has rain moving in wed morning for pretty much everyone!!

    Anyway- hopefully plenty of snow for as many people as pos before then..

    Nearly a week away....

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, ribster said:

    Nearly a week away....

    Yes i know - hence my comment about plenty going on before then :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

     

    Indeed. Although these charts do overdo it sometimes.

    I can't believe I'm chasing a potential snow event 3/4 days away. Most winters in London I could only dream about the sbow that's coming tomorrow!

    More likely north of M4. Do you have a high roof top you might see some in the distance. ☺. Although if gfs 06z shows southward correction might be wrong.

    Edited by stewfox
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Wales, Midlands and parts of N England getting a good pasting according to ARPEGE, such a fine line to shift the risk further north or south, which is possible at this range

    ED506811-6DB7-44B7-9D23-F88C2450C671.thumb.jpeg.7d76df94e5d75a1c67ff55a4302ebbbb.jpegF51CAFC5-E3BF-4EBD-A9C3-2C06CD3E0DC0.thumb.jpeg.19773c5ecb6c97d78d99534444e3eca6.jpegDF08521A-2B86-4224-A4EF-DB1B2ECC682D.thumb.jpeg.a9e568b7fa2adf048401cb6132eecea2.jpegD9B328ED-1EAE-4720-91C6-6E167BA93E39.thumb.jpeg.b192ebc5e36e20bb01f9c105ab20f83c.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Wales, Midlands and parts of N England getting a good pasting according to ARPEGE, such a fine line to shift the risk further north or south, which is possible at this range

    ED506811-6DB7-44B7-9D23-F88C2450C671.thumb.jpeg.7d76df94e5d75a1c67ff55a4302ebbbb.jpegF51CAFC5-E3BF-4EBD-A9C3-2C06CD3E0DC0.thumb.jpeg.19773c5ecb6c97d78d99534444e3eca6.jpegDF08521A-2B86-4224-A4EF-DB1B2ECC682D.thumb.jpeg.a9e568b7fa2adf048401cb6132eecea2.jpegD9B328ED-1EAE-4720-91C6-6E167BA93E39.thumb.jpeg.b192ebc5e36e20bb01f9c105ab20f83c.jpeg

    Looks very much like the latest FAX that Nick :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    6 minutes ago, stewfox said:

    More likely north of M4. Do you have a high roof top you might see some in the distance. ☺. Although if gfs 06z shows southward correction might be wrong.

    I'm an ex-Londoner. Now in Stoke :)

     

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Wales, Midlands and parts of N England getting a good pasting according to ARPEGE, such a fine line to shift the risk further north or south, which is possible at this range

    ED506811-6DB7-44B7-9D23-F88C2450C671.thumb.jpeg.7d76df94e5d75a1c67ff55a4302ebbbb.jpegF51CAFC5-E3BF-4EBD-A9C3-2C06CD3E0DC0.thumb.jpeg.19773c5ecb6c97d78d99534444e3eca6.jpegDF08521A-2B86-4224-A4EF-DB1B2ECC682D.thumb.jpeg.a9e568b7fa2adf048401cb6132eecea2.jpegD9B328ED-1EAE-4720-91C6-6E167BA93E39.thumb.jpeg.b192ebc5e36e20bb01f9c105ab20f83c.jpeg

    Last time we had this situation it was very accurate. Small changes still possible but that will be close to the result I feel.

     

    searching hotels in the midlands and asking what amenities it has and can I have a room with a view? I.e I need to be able to see a lamppost :D

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Not a bad run from the ECM out to 216

    63921770-2C6C-4559-96DF-BB21998BBDE6.thumb.png.eb9f9af57d273b1e90d79453f0796677.png

    sorry for my off topic post and model image, in the will it snow  thread! 

    As you were 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I found some good news on the Gfs 00z for those who hate cold and are concerned about the first bumper crop of december daffodils..this run shows milder weather arriving later in FI:shok::)..see, I'm fair and balanced:D:santa-emoji:...are you havin a laff frosty!:wink:

    00_324_uk2mtmp.png

    00_348_uk2mtmp.png

    00_372_uk2mtmp.png

    00_348_mslp850.png

    00_372_mslp850.png

    00_384_mslp850.png

    th.jpeg

    extras_laugh_wt_r_1.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    Ecm upgrade a lot of snow at 96hrs:cold:

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

    imageproxy.thumb.png.1870d48f4e6a8c6f0a1ee1305bb0138f.pngECH1-72.thumb.png.4a79250ee51c148211fde10d3b6e9363.png

    ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    7 minutes ago, danthetan said:

    imageproxy.thumb.png.1870d48f4e6a8c6f0a1ee1305bb0138f.pngECH1-72.thumb.png.4a79250ee51c148211fde10d3b6e9363.png

    ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight 

    Yes a better wedge of heights near the Greenland to Iceland area pushing the slider a bit further south. 

    Expect the track to firm up over the next 24 - 36 hours. Still quite far out in slider terms. Urge caution for those dusting the sledges off and waxing the rails! 

    Moving into next week, nasty little low fires up Monday morning on the ECM in the Channel, but uppers nowehere near cold enough for snow. Thereafter we see a northerly flow of types, but never really dragging proper cold in.

     

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    5 minutes ago, danthetan said:

    imageproxy.thumb.png.1870d48f4e6a8c6f0a1ee1305bb0138f.pngECH1-72.thumb.png.4a79250ee51c148211fde10d3b6e9363.png

    ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight 

    You can't compare ecm 0z runs with 12z runs because there is only 1 frame per 24h for ecm, so there is a 12h difference between those frames. If you want to compare you have to compare with yesterday's 0z

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Another Eps suite intent on bringing the Atlantic through late week 2.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Another Eps suite intent on bringing the Atlantic through late week 2.

    Where ???

    can you post the images. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Another Eps suite intent on bringing the Atlantic through late week 2.

    Though yesterday’s 12z was less enthusiastic and yesterday’s 00z was binary clusters of flat zonal and very amplified 

    however, this mornings does have a more convincing zonal look to it. Will wait for the clusters 

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    25 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Last time we had this situation it was very accurate. Small changes still possible but that will be close to the result I feel.

     

    searching hotels in the midlands and asking what amenities it has and can I have a room with a view? I.e I need to be able to see a lamppost :D

    It's still a long way out for tracking accuracy. More like pinning the tail on a donkey to quote an old, old, poster on here*.  It's likely to track within 200 miles either side and that will make all the difference to some people. It's also perfectly possible that it may track a lot more than 200 miles out from this. I suspect it will go slide south with the amount of deep cold airmass ahead of it.

     

    * once Atmos Ferric then Stratos Ferric, then emptiness: where did he go? :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, shotski said:

    Where ???

    can you post the images. 

    Its best not to as they are 'supposed' to be behind a hefty pay wall and there are 2 reasons, they might stop licensing them to the site I use, or you could find yourself with a law suite for breaking copyright.

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Though yesterday’s 12z was less enthusiastic and yesterday’s 00z was binary clusters of flat zonal and very amplified 

    however, this mornings does have a more convincing zonal look to it. Will wait for the clusters 

    Indeed though right out at day 14/15, it looks like a reinforcement of a + PNA is happening, pulling the lower heights in the Atlantic back towards Newfoundland.  Way out but something to watch?

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    1 hour ago, West is Best said:

    Terrific ECM - wow. UKMO is okay. GFS not so good in FI but the ensembles are encouraging:

     

    5a28e7f56cee1_ScreenShot2017-12-07at07_02_43.thumb.png.a14cc5196b644611b764cac290376e26.png

     

    In the short term, the ECM has the low much further south than the GFS. Form would tend to suggest the ECM is right, not because it's in any way a better model but because lows at that trajectory buffeting against an arctic airmass tend to get pushed further south nearer the event. The risk is actually for it to miss the UK altogether. The secondary development on Monday sees the low galvanising across Paris.

    Somewhere is going to be in for an absolute pasting from this on Sunday / Monday. My money would be on southern England but the GFS may be correct with the Midlands northwards getting a hammering. It may turn to rain for a time down south before probably turning back to snow.

    Fun and games :)

     

    I can't see that as the low looks too North orientated have u a chart to show your theory please??

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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    1 hour ago, weirpig said:

    That's inches I think 

     That's what he said...

    Just out of interest, can someone tie in what the PV is doing with what's happening or going to happen? Help me understand this.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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