Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[BlackburnChris 317]

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Good shout B-Dog! Happy for those that get the good stuff! Chin up 

Personally I'm in NW England and in the warming area., but don't hold out much hope Fri/Sat .. but previously living in Leicester , I will say the Cheshire gap showers can get a lot furter East than the gfs currently shows....

[Fiona Robertson 431]

4 hours ago, bobbydog said:

right... i'm feeling a bit 'down' tonight, nothing to do with the weather, no particular reason really, not like me to feel down but i just do.

however, the output points to many areas having some serious snowfall, more than we've had for a good few years. personally, my area probably won't see much if any (yet...) but some will have a snowfest! if you dont get any now, its nobody's fault, thats how it goes- but let those who do get some, enjoy it.

Well said!I was busy bemoaning my measly 2 cm when I saw your post. It made me stop and think. No matter what any of us gets, we will get weather. Hope you feel better soon.

[MattStoke 6,458]

0z looks to have Sunday's low a touch further south than the 18z.

Snow from about the Midlands northwards. Perhaps turning to rain for a time across the South Midlands. Rain turning back to snow here and across parts of the south as the system clears.

Edited December 7, 2017 by MattStoke

[Broadmayne blizzard 3,711]

5 hours ago, s4lancia said:

An hour and half later and finally caught up! Exhausting work all this...

Safe to say today has been a very good news day in terms of the chances of this becoming a memorable cold spell. Both snow-wise and in duration. 

A absolutely fantastic post earlier by Tamara as well earlier on. Intriguing stuff!

Also, I really don't think some people have any concept quite HOW little snow places like where I live get. We will go, quite literally, for years on end without seeing a single flake floating in the air. There is no such this as a poor snowfall down here. ANY fall of snow is good! ? Waking up to a dusting, the ones where you still aren't sure if it isn't just a heavy frost, is equivalent to 6 inches settling in low lying Birmingham. The good news with this however, expectations are always rock bottom, so when it does happen it just makes it that much better ? 

That said, with the atmospheric state as it currently is, even I would be surprised, and a tad gutted, if I didn't get a good dumping at some point this winter ❄️ 

Couldn't,t agree more S4L. I don,t think people realise that down here in the environs of South Dorset that we went for 20 years or more without a county wide dumping of snow from 1987. 

[mother nature rocks 665]

By the looks ok it ‘the slider’ is further south according to the 0z UKMO.

Also, 850’s are pretty reasonable as well!!!

Good event somewhere Sunday. Midlands looks top(ish) spot for now anyway.

Edited December 7, 2017 by mother nature rocks

[shaky 6,206]

Yup ecm slides aswell!!much better than yesterdays 96 hour chart!!

[MattStoke 6,458]

ECM appears to develop another deep low close to SW England late Sunday/early Monday.

Edited December 7, 2017 by MattStoke

[Weathizard 4,915]

Considering the time of year the uppers are very dissappointing, patterns and sypnotics aside it's a real shame there's no really cold air on tap it's a real struggle after the initial pulse

[Severe Siberian icy blast 4,383]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM appears to develop another deep low close to SW England late Sunday/early Monday.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5729/ECM1-96_wft3.GIF

I think as the low pressure looks to have two or even three waves to it as the first wave passes through Sunday we have the second part (stronger?) Deepen rapidly and become cut off from the other shallow feature from Sunday, uppers about-3 ahead of the second low so entrenched cold will be critical, and any snow cover will really help keep the temps suppressed, just hope it doesn't deepen that much as the wind will prevent evaporative cooling and again that will be critical to snow/rain 

 

 

On a side not I just don't buy the progression from hemispheric point of view from t96-120, loose the heights to our north and rapidly deepen heights towards Greenland, but fun to watch, think once that low pressure spawns off Greenland we will see rapid heights build behind 

Edited December 7, 2017 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[sausage 214]

charts not changed much to last nights. a smdgem south but thats all.

[Dennis 1,724]

watch next week......

[sausage 214]

snow midlands and northern england

[MattStoke 6,458]

ECM snow accumulation to the end on Sunday. Similar to the GFS, a touch further south on this run.

[Nick F 23,029]

The slider further south on 00z EC det. Looking at the 6hr frames on weatherbell snow in a swathe just N of the M4 from South Wales to Thames Estuary and south of a line from southern Cumbria to the Humber also across the N of Rep. of Ireland and N. Ireland. Slider trough weirdly has 3 circulations. Also shows a good 12-18 hours of snowfall for parts of Midlands and N England before it peters out early Monday.

Nasty low following further south into France too like yesterday’s 12z.

[Daniel* 17,287]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM snow accumulation to the end on Sunday. Similar to the GFS, a touch further south on this run.

Looking good for the Midlands, Central Wales north sees a lot of snow. 

 

[shaky 6,206]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Looking good for the Midlands, Central Wales north sees a lot of snow. 

 

Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

[weirpig 10,269]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

That's inches I think 

[northwestsnow 25,394]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

Looks brill shaky!!

Your area wants the track pretty much as EC 0z has it- 

Sounds ridic with all this fun near term but have to say the 00z runs look to have upped the northern jet quite a lot - definite shift towards the Atlantic coming in wed

[MattStoke 6,458]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

It's inches 

[bluearmy 44,600]

Just now, MattStoke said:

It's inches 

Ecm must be male as it always overstates the number of inches that you'll actually see ....................

[festivalking 2,186]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Couldn't,t agree more S4L. I don,t think people realise that down here in the environs of South Dorset that we went for 20 years or more without a county wide dumping of snow from 1987. 

1994 was pretty good for snow I was sledging on the coastal hills of purbeck!

Looking at the models I don't think much sledging south of Wiltshire is on the menu come sunday

[I remember Atlantic 252 7,601]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm must be male as it always overstates the number of inches that you'll actually see ....................

[northwestsnow 25,394]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm must be male as it always overstates the number of inches that you'll actually see ....................

There has been quite an unfortunate shift in the overnight runs mid term blue (yes i know theres a lot going on in the next 4 or 5 days)

GFS/EC making much more of the northern arm of the jet- 

[Daniel* 17,287]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It's inches 

I think he knows that, all he has done is a conversion? Shows ~15cm of snow for quite a swathe of the Midlands. 

[West is Best 3,022]

Terrific ECM - wow. UKMO is okay. GFS not so good in FI but the ensembles are encouraging:

 

 

In the short term, the ECM has the low much further south than the GFS. Form would tend to suggest the ECM is right, not because it's in any way a better model but because lows at that trajectory buffeting against an arctic airmass tend to get pushed further south nearer the event. The risk is actually for it to miss the UK altogether. The secondary development on Monday sees the low galvanising across Paris.

Somewhere is going to be in for an absolute pasting from this on Sunday / Monday. My money would be on southern England but the GFS may be correct with the Midlands northwards getting a hammering. It may turn to rain for a time down south before probably turning back to snow.

Fun and games