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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

    Good shout B-Dog! Happy for those that get the good stuff! Chin up :good:

    Personally I'm in NW England and in the warming area., but don't hold out much hope Fri/Sat .. but previously living in Leicester , I will say the Cheshire gap showers can get a lot furter East than the gfs currently shows....

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    4 hours ago, bobbydog said:

    right... i'm feeling a bit 'down' tonight, nothing to do with the weather, no particular reason really, not like me to feel down but i just do.

    however, the output points to many areas having some serious snowfall, more than we've had for a good few years. personally, my area probably won't see much if any (yet...) but some will have a snowfest! if you dont get any now, its nobody's fault, thats how it goes- but let those who do get some, enjoy it.

    Well said!I was busy bemoaning my measly 2 cm when I saw your post. It made me stop and think. No matter what any of us gets, we will get weather. Hope you feel better soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    0z looks to have Sunday's low a touch further south than the 18z.

    Snow from about the Midlands northwards. Perhaps turning to rain for a time across the South Midlands. Rain turning back to snow here and across parts of the south as the system clears.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    5 hours ago, s4lancia said:

    An hour and half later and finally caught up! Exhausting work all this...

    Safe to say today has been a very good news day in terms of the chances of this becoming a memorable cold spell. Both snow-wise and in duration. 

    A absolutely fantastic post earlier by Tamara as well earlier on. Intriguing stuff!

    Also, I really don't think some people have any concept quite HOW little snow places like where I live get. We will go, quite literally, for years on end without seeing a single flake floating in the air. There is no such this as a poor snowfall down here. ANY fall of snow is good! ? Waking up to a dusting, the ones where you still aren't sure if it isn't just a heavy frost, is equivalent to 6 inches settling in low lying Birmingham. The good news with this however, expectations are always rock bottom, so when it does happen it just makes it that much better ? 

    That said, with the atmospheric state as it currently is, even I would be surprised, and a tad gutted, if I didn't get a good dumping at some point this winter ❄️ 

    Couldn't,t agree more S4L. I don,t think people realise that down here in the environs of South Dorset that we went for 20 years or more without a county wide dumping of snow from 1987. 

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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester

    By the looks ok it ‘the slider’ is further south according to the 0z UKMO.

    Also, 850’s are pretty reasonable as well!!!

    Good event somewhere Sunday. Midlands looks top(ish) spot for now anyway.

    Edited by mother nature rocks
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    ECM appears to develop another deep low close to SW England late Sunday/early Monday.

    A2EF8B2C-02F3-4A11-A501-0B0061353E1B.gif

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Considering the time of year the uppers are very dissappointing, patterns and sypnotics aside it's a real shame there's no really cold air on tap it's a real struggle after the initial pulse

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    ECM appears to develop another deep low close to SW England late Sunday/early Monday.

    http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5729/ECM1-96_wft3.GIF

    I think as the low pressure looks to have two or even three waves to it as the first wave passes through Sunday we have the second part (stronger?) Deepen rapidly and become cut off from the other shallow feature from Sunday, uppers about-3 ahead of the second low so entrenched cold will be critical, and any snow cover will really help keep the temps suppressed, just hope it doesn't deepen that much as the wind will prevent evaporative cooling and again that will be critical to snow/rain 

     

     

    On a side not I just don't buy the progression from hemispheric point of view from t96-120, loose the heights to our north and rapidly deepen heights towards Greenland, but fun to watch, think once that low pressure spawns off Greenland we will see rapid heights build behind 

    Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    ECM snow accumulation to the end on Sunday. Similar to the GFS, a touch further south on this run.

    C00CB414-3BB5-4791-B352-A9FD8ECE369B.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    ECM snow accumulation to the end on Sunday. Similar to the GFS, a touch further south on this run.

    C00CB414-3BB5-4791-B352-A9FD8ECE369B.jpeg

    Looking good for the Midlands, Central Wales north sees a lot of snow. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Looking good for the Midlands, Central Wales north sees a lot of snow. 

     

    Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    4 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

    That's inches I think 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

    Looks brill shaky!!

    Your area wants the track pretty much as EC 0z has it- 

    Sounds ridic with all this fun near term but have to say the 00z runs look to have upped the northern jet quite a lot - definite shift towards the Atlantic coming in wed :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    7 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Thats 14cms of snow for the midlanda!!wow!!aint seen that since january 2013!!

    It's inches :)

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, MattStoke said:

    It's inches :)

    Ecm must be male as it always overstates the number of inches that you'll actually see ....................

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
    1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Couldn't,t agree more S4L. I don,t think people realise that down here in the environs of South Dorset that we went for 20 years or more without a county wide dumping of snow from 1987. 

    1994 was pretty good for snow I was sledging on the coastal hills of purbeck!

    Looking at the models I don't think much sledging south of Wiltshire is on the menu come sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ecm must be male as it always overstates the number of inches that you'll actually see ....................

    :oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ecm must be male as it always overstates the number of inches that you'll actually see ....................

    There has been quite an unfortunate shift in the overnight runs mid term blue (yes i know theres a lot going on in the next 4 or 5 days)

    GFS/EC making much more of the northern arm of the jet- 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    It's inches :)

    I think he knows that, all he has done is a conversion? Shows ~15cm of snow for quite a swathe of the Midlands. 

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    Terrific ECM - wow. UKMO is okay. GFS not so good in FI but the ensembles are encouraging:

     

    5a28e7f56cee1_ScreenShot2017-12-07at07_02_43.thumb.png.a14cc5196b644611b764cac290376e26.png

     

    In the short term, the ECM has the low much further south than the GFS. Form would tend to suggest the ECM is right, not because it's in any way a better model but because lows at that trajectory buffeting against an arctic airmass tend to get pushed further south nearer the event. The risk is actually for it to miss the UK altogether. The secondary development on Monday sees the low galvanising across Paris.

    Somewhere is going to be in for an absolute pasting from this on Sunday / Monday. My money would be on southern England but the GFS may be correct with the Midlands northwards getting a hammering. It may turn to rain for a time down south before probably turning back to snow.

    Fun and games :)

     

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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