Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    12 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    The next low, south of Greenland, has also shifted north.

    I think the bigger picture is okay, no surprises there though. The Azores high looks slower to creep north on this run if it does.

    image.thumb.png.b5e328a775f811d7b012ea71dff580f8.png

    Though its very similar in the earlier stages, I wouldn't be a paranoid android just yet.

    This model output watching is giving me the bends though. Lets hope we don't get left high and dry. Hopefully we can get everything in its right place.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

    It’s ok, we have 24/7 electricity and toilets inside down south 

    You sure do and thats fantastic! !!:yahoo:.im sure it will still be major news tho lol.changes a foot on the 18z tho and maybe know crippling town centre meltdowns

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The brilliant model watching continues, nothing is nailed as yet for the weekend but a better run for the northern contingent here.  Superb charts at 168 with heights building both towards Greenland and eastern Scandi, it's looking like all routes lead to cold at the moment!  Time as always will tell...

    gfsnh-0-162.png?18

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
    3 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    What on earth is going on there? It's like a conga line!

    It’s a Greenland streamer!!?

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

    When the slider moves in would decent lying snow cover (ie snow from Thursday/Friday event in NW Ireland) effect the air temps enough to increase the chances of snow falling? Looks like we are on a real knife edge regarding snowfall on Sunday. 

    Although anything on Sunday will be a bonus alongside the upcoming PM shot. Certainly eases the slider stress! :D

     

    Btw, big thanks to all the contributers here as always. I've picked up some real good model reading info on slider events.

    Edited by Sperrin
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Great chart again..

    Triple whamy on the vortex..

    Waa@ western seabord/-partial-greenland/and eye catching russian warmth...

    And a tri-lobe vortex...

    Hard to think of better specifics going deeper -december!!

    gfsnh-0-210.png

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Sematic detail aside for the slider - the long term cold is certainly gaining momentum with all 3 models going past 192 - ( GEM / ECM & GFS ) promoting a 3 prong attack on the pole & deep troughing in NW europe- this may ease back NEasterly in time... If cold spell starts tomorrow then protracted length is aready progged at 10 days...

    Steve some of the minima under that slack scandy trough will be really low under snowcover -shortest week of the year- week before christmas-

    yes please.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Steve some of the minima under that slack scandy trough will be really low under snowcover -shortest week of the year- week before christmas-

    yes please.

    Yes - there will be a lull of cold uppers for about 3-4 days - but as long as the flow is slack then very cold overnight -

    CET about 1.5 - 2c midmonth on these runs...

    PS updated 96 fax is reasonable - especially for my elevation getting on 150-160 M

    Edited by Steve Murr
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Hot off the press, the updated t+96 chart for the crucial 12z Sunday timeframe, similar or a little further south to the18z GFS?

    PPVM89.thumb.gif.4807bcb13cb89427f1985540ef053fbf.gif

    Here is where it ends up.I would say it tracked through heart of England

    fax96s.gif

     

    fax120s.gif

    Edited by winterof79
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    18z giving us a December to remember!!

    Cold still going strong on the 19th !!

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    I don't no if it's me but the 18z looks an absolute cracker so far for cold prospect going forward thru the mid to long range.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yes - there will be a lull of cold uppers for about 3-4 days - but as long as the flow is slack then very cold overnight -

    CET about 1.5 - 2c midmonth on these runs...

    PS updated 96 fax is reasonable - especially for my elevation getting on 150-160 M

    Mate if the GFS 18z comes of it will be a very good cold spell , the best for years and it's getting even colder at 288 hrs . Get in there my son ?. 

    IMG_0729.PNG

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    18z giving us a December to remember!!

    Cold still going strong on the 19th !!

    Yes the 18z is cold all the way after tomorrow's mild mush is chased away, very blocky cold cyclonic with snow, ice and frosts featuring very strongly according to this run and indeed earlier output!..great ?:santa-emoji:

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    18z giving us a December to remember!!

    Cold still going strong on the 19th !!

    Make that the 21st mate the cold just keeps coming ?

    IMG_0730.PNG

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Looking at the current 18z GFS. its  looking pretty amazing for most of the uk for potential snowfall. 

    I think theres going to be a news headline there next week. 

    Low pressure dominant all next week. 

    Happy days. I'm just going with the flow i aren't even going to try to predict how much and where. I just know we're all in for something excuse my lack of detail. 

    I aren't disappointed with the 18z.

    More so if I lived down south but I don't. 

    I live in a log cabin on the North Yorkshire Moors 474ft ASL. 

    Also have a subaru 4X4.

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
    1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

    Looking at the current 18z GFS. its  looking pretty amazing for most of the uk for potential snowfall. 

    I think theres going to be a news headline there next week. 

    Low pressure dominant all next week. 

    Happy days. I'm just going with the flow i aren't even going to try to predict how much and where. I just know we're all in for something excuse my lack of detail. 

    I aren't disappointed with the 18z.

    More so if I lived down south but I don't. 

    I live in a log cabin on the North Yorkshire Moors 474ft ASL. 

    Also have a subaru 4X4.

    Might be better off with a snowmobile or a team of huskys if the gfs 18z is right

    IMG_3629.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
    1 minute ago, tynevalleysnow said:

    Might be better off with a snowmobile or a team of huskys if the gfs 18z is right

    IMG_3629.PNG

    Yes that looks very impressive if noticed on the last couple of runs more so on the 18z that area of high pressure to our West pushed further West and weakening. 

    All in all a good show .

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    GFS actually brings a second sleet/snow event on Monday over the Eastern half of the country and you can see the offending front on the FAX chart tonight

     

    fax120s.gif.0473272dcdefdf6326dc23021112

    Edited by Snowy L
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Hot off the press, the updated t+96 chart for the crucial 12z Sunday timeframe, similar or a little further south to the18z GFS?

    PPVM89.thumb.gif.4807bcb13cb89427f1985540ef053fbf.gif

    Looks a bit further south than the 18z to my untrained eye?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...