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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

Posted Images

ECM snow chart report: marginal snow initially as far south as N Hants and Surrey before turning to rain here, more chance of settling snow closer to Birmingham and further north.

And the ECM now throws in another snow event for the 14th, all the way through C England down to the south coast.

Not to be taken as gospel!!

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28 minutes ago, flysurfer said:

Zilch for Kent the Steve murr?

Nothing planned yet- need further tracking south ... & less onshore winds- which at the moment is a possibility-

Sweet spot somewhere in the midlands which is very typical of slider scenarios

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EC has at least 5cm / 2 inches Midlands north a smattering south of M4. It appears the first widespread snow in quite some time is in the offing let’s hope we southerners see more favourable turns to come. 

Edited by Daniel*
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27 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Snow-lovers EC12z has hit the mother lode for Sunday. Widespread disruptive #snow including parts of south, perhaps 10-20cm. Caveate that there is still lots of uncertainty with crucial track of low . This is taken from Chris Fawkes. So all in all descent ecm 12z 

I don’t see that I’m not sure where he is getting that from, there’s barely any snow for the south.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

EC has at least 5cm / 2 inches Midlands north a smattering south of M4. It appears the first widespread snow in quite some time is in the offing let’s hope we southerners see more favourable turns to come. 

Would that be more further north.... or generally 5cm?

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22 minutes ago, swebby said:

The T120 fax chart, a little out of date now,  was also indicating multiple centres running south of iceland.

This is the one and only time I am pleased to see our dreaded friend the shortwave:rofl:

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That ECM solution is intriguing, it's like it's trying so hard to find a way not to phase the slider with the trough in situ to the east,  by creating that conveyer of small depressions.

A situation like the 6z GFS where the two lows dont phase brings the highest risk of lowland snowfall regardless of the track (north or south).

If the slider remains cut off, then things will be a whole lot more straightforward, I.e. ppn moves into colder air, turns to snow, then sinks away south east. If we get the two lows interacting/phasing then we get much moister air wrapped up within the system, and with our marginal ocean based climate then this will surely result in lots more sleet rain away from the higher ground.

why can't it just be simple eh!! 

We will need luck on our side for Sunday to be white at lower levels. 

Still 0-0 at half time....... have a cuppa and come back for the second half ;) 

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14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

EC has at least 5cm / 2 inches Midlands north a smattering south of M4. It appears the first widespread snow in quite some time is in the offing let’s hope we southerners see more favourable turns to come. 

ECM precipitation charts for Sunday shows a fair chunk of England covered, the Midlands looks sorted for now :D

171206_1200_96.png

Looks like the BBC is following the ECM for Sunday

05230AD9-CDE4-4C10-96D6-F49EB4E58C52.jpe

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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1 hour ago, ShortWaveHell said:

In the last few weeks the UKmet struggling and GFS doing well ? 

No, the numbers are in the legend:

ECM 0.924

UKMO 0.905

JMA 0.903

GFS 0.892

CMC (=GEM) 0.890

 

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1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

ECM precipitation charts for Sunday shows a fair chunk of England covered, the  Midlands looks sorted for now :D

171206_1200_96.png

thats weather porn right there- much of the country hammered with SNOW!!!

Cmon Ec have this nailed at 96!!

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23 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Well, the Fax charts are still proving their worth as we head into the period of greatest wintry (snow) potential. Come dawn on Friday, lying snow could well be affecting much of Scotland (including lowland parts of northern England perhaps?) and also parts of Western England, maybe into central parts too if conditions are ripe for it. Our first lowland snowfalls of the winter season 2017/18 are on their way, according to this D3 Fax Chart. As to my percentage chances of something significantly wintry occurring and lasting, I'll give it a 70:30 percent shot as no mild air is likely to kill off the wintry flavour for a good few days yet. The strongest depth of the cold will be felt from the 8th to 10th December as anticipated, previously. The more the snow settles, the greater our chances are of prolonging the cold spell IMHO. Timing is key with regards to the settling of any snowfall and the attached chart needs to come off as suggested for a coldies best hopes to happen. Bring on the chill and take care all, a certain Storm Caroline to deal with beforehand. Winter is just about to show its energetic and more seasonal side! :cold-emoji::friends:

5a26f4c973dd7_051217FaxChartfort72hours-8thDecember0000hrs.thumb.gif.87354d1e07bbd35377a00d509460448e.gif

24 hours on and nearly down to nowcasting times, in another 36 or so hours, a number of us even in inland parts, could get a dusting it seems as the local forecasts are now mentioning the word, SNOW. Regions as stated above, the most at risk but Friday morning could be an interesting commute if all goes to plan. Take care all, as Storm Caroline starts to ramp up as well. :friends:

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

:yahoo:

message ends.

Ec is absolutely amazing from start to finish- weeks of snow cover- 

I really wouldn't be celebrating yes, I happen to think the West Midlands (where I used to live) will do best from this, we only need a slight SW correction to take us into the light and patchy stuff, as a whole the ECM 12 is about as good as its going to be for as many areas as possible, someone somewhere is going to be disappointed, its just not possible with this next week that everyone will se snow, hopefully working towards that chart with the whole country covered (J10 and Dec 10) eventually.

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33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good agreement for the overall pattern for at least the next ten days.

A couple of slider lows then a re-amplification of the upstream pattern, a deep low over the east USA helping to build a ridge to the nw ahead of it.

A good example of how cold in the ne USA needn't mean mild mush in the UK.

 

This would be the exception rather than the rule though Nick. Pretty exceptional Synoptics are bringing this. In general winter, cold eastern US =  usually a strong jet heading straight for the uk. In all my years on here, this is the most incredible November into December and probably the new year model watching I’ve witnessed.

one question, when the hell am I going to get any sleep ?

Edited by karlos1983
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I really wouldn't be celebrating yes, I happen to think the West Midlands (where I used to live) will do best from this, we only need a slight SW correction to take us into the light and patchy stuff, as a whole the ECM 12 is about as good as its going to be for as many areas as possible, someone somewhere is going to be disappointed, its just not possible with this next week that everyone will se snow, hopefully working towards that chart with the whole country covered (J10 and Dec 10) eventually.

Oh i'm not being IMBY i genuinely think EC gives snow chances to much of the country, i dont begrudge anyone getting a good dump, even if i get 5cm i will be happy :)

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Given all the models' uncertainty regarding the track of that chain of sliders, I think I'll be more than happy should the whole lot follow the official Steve Murr Predicted Path (SSPP?) and pass southeastwards into the southernmost part of the North Sea via Basildon...:D

You never know, if the best comes to the best, the Family snow shovel, purchased in preparation for the snowfest that wasn't 2014, might even come out of the garage!:santa-emoji:

GFS18Z here we come!:yahoo:

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There does seem to be growing interest in a pressure rise to the NE for the last third of December. Those drawing parallels with December 1962 may be onto something. I’ve often heard it said that the best winters have a couple of hors d’oeuvres before the main course.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Very intriguing setup isn't it. Never seen anything quite like it. Especially that image with the train of lows. What is encouraging is the fact the met office predict snow. Too many times the models say snow, the met say rain and I trust the models only to be bitterly disappointed. Fingers crossed!!!!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh i'm not being IMBY i genuinely think EC gives snow chances to much of the country, i dont begrudge anyone getting a good dump, even if i get 5cm i will be happy :)

I know what you and Feb are saying because let's face it we haven't hit the sweet spot for 20 years.

 

However

 

You would back the ECM having it nailed at t96 99% of the time if it wasn't showing snow over any other model.

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