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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

Posted Images

at +96 the centre of the low is in exactly the same position as the 06z 

gfs-0-102.thumb.png.21fdb049ee2e27dfaff3caad3df994b3.pnggfs-0-96.thumb.png.907e4aa3882032f4434838e26de70974.png

With less mild 850's in the mix

gfs-1-102.thumb.png.291e028194f6ff6edfde6589c671ee53.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.03b30c18d61a2ca0d274b708c64bd808.png

UKMO is different at +96 however. Nothing yet resolved 

UN96-21.thumb.gif.333c0561d58e37e5d3b6e275cfef91c2.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Hmmmm I mentioned in previous posts how the arctic high may start to influence Greenland and its shown in recent runs....

                          06z                                                      12z

image.thumb.png.a2e7e3901491eee61ec604f22213abf8.pngimage.thumb.png.94723a5d843b5efb882ed66b5fe94099.png 

It's a very subtle change but its why that slider is moving a little further south. It may keep milder air a little further away or keep the UK slightly colder.

If it becomes a bigger player then I may have a few more scenarios to draw :D.

Either way snow is better then no snow and I'd be happy to accept the early results of this forecast. :)
 

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At t120 gfs, forgetting the slider for a mo. Look at the heights building to the north and sharper height rises to the north east. Some thing to keep an eye because if this were to become a trend future runs will be very good.

IMG_0167.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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The GFS 06z was starting to have a Westerly component by T+132. That is not the case on the 12z - remaining very much from a Northerly quadrant. 

Edit: Compare the 06z to the 12z for midnight  on this coming Tuesday. 

IMG_8484.PNG

IMG_8485.PNG

Edited by Paul_1978
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Just now, Mokidugway said:

Some wild weather pre cold onslaught,hope our Scottish cousins have battened down the hatches 

I agree, yes there is snow in the forecast, but Scotland is going take a real battering before that.

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

You can see on the regional UK view that it's further north than the GFS 

Yes it is, which potentially means more people in the mild sector!!

Hope GFS is correct for those in the midlands and further south :)

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Anyhow here we are with this afternoon's run and it's as you were with the most likely areas to get snow from this slider, notice how the areas likely to be effected are a thin wedge

 

gfs-2-102.png?12

Edited by Paul
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