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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Morning all. IMO the overall pattern is not dissimilar and I will be happy for all those who see snow. I think some posts should be in the regional threads as for a newbie it is going to be confusing to read upgrade or down grade based on your own postcode!! And as this will keep changing from run to run it's going to be hard to keep tabs on the overall discussion. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ECH1-216.GIF?06-12

    Ec does look very very interesting later on !!

    Great chart, the PV just hits a road block off the east coast of the USA!! I just wonder if we a winding up to something much better later on Dec and Jan. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Atlantic / GL ridging round 2 anyone?, a stonking Northern hemisphere pattern at D9 on the ECM, never mind the usual question of how we are going to break the PV down in January and what the chances of an SSW are, because if this keeps up, I'm not sure if there's going to be one left by then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Judging by the comments of the lovely Carl Kirkwood a few minutes ago. There still likely to be further corrections in the timing and track of the sunday slider..Midlands and north were mentioned as main areas but the uncertainty was mentioned several times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Following the progress of the slider is sure to be fun over the next few days!!

    Position, angle of attack, westward progression, dew points, precipitation amounts, surface temps, wet bulbs, freezing level, surface wind direction, and how it interacts with the trough in situ to the east are all open to changes.

    Im pretty sure some of us will see some low level settling frontal snowfall, but who and will it last?

    7am Sunday morning......front just moving into the cold air, snow on leading edge. How things eventually evolve will be fascinating.

    IMG_2952.thumb.GIF.2e089dda288c1862081ba2d0862ab408.GIF

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Pretty good continuity on Sunday from yesterday's runs 

    gem has corrected ne to get into the same place as the other models. 

    those south of a line Cambridge to Shrewsbury need a correction sw to have much chance of seeing settling snowfall 

    anyone north of that line is certainly looking better and north of Norwich across to Chester you are pretty much snowman building!  How far ne the precipitation from the fronts get will change if the track corrects 

    will there be further corrections? 

    liking the way the NH pattern evolves on ec op but whether we can get the Arctic ridge to drop a nose into Greenland would be pretty questionable 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Oh ECM! You tease. Tantalising us at Day 10 again I see. Compare and contrast with GFS at the same time frame. Clearly not a relentless output of zonal muck at the moment, with more changes in the output yet to come. So no point over milk that has not been spilt, yet.

     

    ECE1-240.gif

    gfseu-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Pretty good continuity on Sunday from yesterday's runs 

    gem has corrected nw to get into the same place as the other models. 

    those south of a line Cambridge to Shrewsbury need a correction sw to have much chance of seeing settling snowfall 

    anyone north of that line is certainly looking better and north of Norwich across to Chester you are pretty much snowman building!  How far ne the precipitation from the fronts get will change if the track corrects 

    will there be further corrections? 

    liking the way the NH pattern evolves on ec op but whether we can get the Arctic ridge to drop a nose into Greenland would be pretty questionable 

    EC looks very complex 96-120 blue-

    Are you basing your comments on  GEM or EC?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Good morning all! :santa-emoji:

    As everyone has already seen a shift South this morning on the GFS and MetOffice for Sunday’s system  - on the MetOffice website for my location I have gone from last nights 90% chance of heavy snowfall to a 40% of light snow for this very Sunday! 

    Surely this means they see it as more of a Southern event now?

    Good luck to everyone who has a chance of a snow day on Sunday! Weekend snow is always the most fun! (If you are of a cold persuasion obviously :reindeer-emoji:)

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    ECM snow accumulation up to the end of Sunday

    890D6A76-DD01-4F40-9EAA-2F07C3338B28.jpeg

    Theres the ever slight shift southwards of the higher accumulations!!wouldnt it be funny if it missed wales and the south west got it instead lol??

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    NetW-MR Models take on Sundays snow risk.

    viewimage-37.thumb.png.3014f9b8accb7e176c73add51ceb1abe.pngviewimage-30.thumb.png.40273111113b6646b3181472c29549a0.pngviewimage-28.thumb.png.771163966f0df93411ab6dd8566e46fc.pngviewimage-34.thumb.png.db47b0485b2cdf58a5c58879ff6c7750.png

     

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ECH1-216.GIF?06-12

    Ec does look very very interesting later on !!

    Too far out. Look 3 days and within for cold and snow . Source Liam Dutton . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    NetW-MR Models take on Sundays snow risk.

    viewimage-37.thumb.png.3014f9b8accb7e176c73add51ceb1abe.pngviewimage-30.thumb.png.40273111113b6646b3181472c29549a0.pngviewimage-28.thumb.png.771163966f0df93411ab6dd8566e46fc.pngviewimage-34.thumb.png.db47b0485b2cdf58a5c58879ff6c7750.png

     

    If them charts verify the Lake District, Peak District and NYMoors are in for a treat:good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    44 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    ECM snow accumulation up to the end of Sunday

    890D6A76-DD01-4F40-9EAA-2F07C3338B28.jpeg

    Not sure how reliable these charts are but if we get 8" of snow in Yorkshire, I'll eat my hat!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Not sure how reliable these charts are but if we get 8" of snow in Yorkshire, I'll eat my hat!

    Snow charts aren't very reliable. Gives you an idea of where the model is showing that snow is likely to fall though.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Pretty much every frame of the 00z ECM is brilliant. So good to see these charts being turned out consistently. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EDH1-216.GIF?06-12

    EC day10 mean- i think we can safely say last December is well behind us and this one is going to be very very different...

    and i have a feeling this site is going to be very busy over the coming days!!

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Hutton, Essex / Work - Camden Town, London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Home - Hutton, Essex / Work - Camden Town, London

    Morning cold (and not so cold) chasers!

    Queries relating to imby <that’s ‘in my back yard> for the uninitiated will be moved to the regional threads. Also sweeping statements. One liners met office discussion, the health of your goldfish etc etc will also be moved elsewhere,

    if you see a post you don’t think belongs in here, PLEASE DON’T REPLY. Just hit ‘report’ and one of us will deal with it. More off topic replies = more posts to move and delete. We aren’t full time mods, we just dip in and out between our real life jobs, so pruning every o/t post is a massive task. Please try and report rather than reply! 

    Thanks a mil!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Good to see the slider is still on although still time for changes to the track.

    Whats complicating matters even more than normal is this slider phases with the troughing to the east, timing of that phase also makes a difference to where the snow line might be.

    Looking further ahead the next big event in terms of impacts for the UK is the development of a big eastern USA storm which will have a big effect  on the downstream pattern, the ECM and GFS handle this quite differently.

    The GFS has the flatter system which is often the case in these scenarios.  Looking at the Maine forecast is interesting re their thoughts on the troughing upstream:

    Flow wl turn twd the northwest on Sunday in wake of system mvg east
    into Canada with a brief ridge of high pressure expected on Monday.
    Next system wl dig south into the Great Lks on Tue with guidance
    indicating potential for trof to take on negative tilt by mid-week.
    Although details differ regarding timing, mid-week system looks to
    be significant at this time.
     

    A negative tilt to the upstream troughing would be good news for  UK coldies so something to keep an eye on. :cold-emoji:

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
    12 minutes ago, khodds said:

    Not sure where to post this but it’s infuriating that people are talking about north/south and of course IMBY snow bias to their posts... (which I know they shouldn’t in the MAD thread) but reading on a mobile I can’t see locations so it’s really confusing to see the models from different perspectives! I’ve already had 4 mood swings this morning ?

     

    I've always read on my mobile and seen locations but I can't now - wonder what's changed?! It does make it hard to keep up!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Ext eps this morning are somewhat disappointing, totally different at the end of the run, showing a return to mild south westerly winds - expect a sharp rise at the end of the London graph.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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