Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

A few members keep saying midlands north wrt to snow. Gfs and ECM your looking at leeds north not the midlands.  

Not true, GFS has a dumping down the spine of the country, ECM has snow Birmingham Northwards and deep snow Manchester Northwards.

EDIT : do I think those ridiculous snow totals will verify, not in a million month of Sunday's, but that's what the model is showing.

Edited December 5, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Daniel*]

Not bad at T192 however a wet picture for now, bet another good show in extreme FI is in the works. It’s not looking too distant from 00z and I thought that was very intriguing going forward. 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Daniel*

[shaky]

Ermmm is it possible to see snow at 850s between 0 and -3 as long as cold is emebedded at the surface?!!maybe thats another reason why bluearmy has mentioned for snow from midlands north!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not true, GFS has a dumping down the spine of the country, ECM has snow Birmingham Northwards and deep snow Manchester Northwards.

I perfer ECM for sunday Feb- i think our locale is just about on the 'right' side of the low...

Again- only my opinion..

[matty40s]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry guys but it looks a damp squid for 90% percent of the country from Sunday onwards not sure why all the excitement the uppers are way to high cold Rain?

Rubbish, you don't need -10 uppers for snow in this kind of setup.

[bluearmy]

its not worth over analysing sunday as yet. what is good from the 12z ecm is that it has stepped back to where it was yesterday 12z run and its in line with gfs 12z run. now we had agreement T120 yesterday between the two in the nw atlantic and that soon evaporated. lets see where the 00z are but where we currently sit seems to resonate with the met office forecast

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Rubbish, you don't need -10 uppers for snow in this kind of setup.

Cooling evaporation!!.

The air is to mixed out...

Many if any seeing snow to rain!!!

Then cold rain...

Via ec-12z.

But as again...

To early to conclude!

Edited December 5, 2017 by tight isobar

[Walsall Wood Snow]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

A few members keep saying midlands north wrt to snow. Gfs and ECM your looking at leeds north not the midlands.  

Still some chance of upgrades yet though surely. Was it Dec 1990 which was initially forecast as a rain event? We all know what happened regardless. 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not true, GFS has a dumping down the spine of the country, ECM has snow Birmingham Northwards and deep snow Manchester Northwards.

EDIT : do I think those ridiculous snow totals will verify, not in a million month of Sunday's, but that's what the model is showing.

Thank you thought I was going mad. Anyway pointless looking at the raw charts for precipitation. Altitude etc will come into play 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I perfer ECM for sunday Feb- i think our locale is just about on the 'right' side of the low...

Again- only my opinion..

Problem is the heavier the dumping you get, the more the risk of it turning to rain as the boundary is usually where the heavier PPN is.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry guys but it looks a damp squid for 90% percent of the country from Sunday onwards not sure why all the excitement the uppers are way to high cold Rain?

Someone posted a picture last night of a blizzard with 10 foot snow drifts in the southwest achieved with uppers of -2...to me the outlook beyond the arctic blast could continue to be cold cyclonic ..meaning further wintry ppn and night frosts rather than the usual default mild gunk.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[MKN]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not true, GFS has a dumping down the spine of the country, ECM has snow Birmingham Northwards and deep snow Manchester Northwards.

EDIT : do I think those ridiculous snow totals will verify, not in a million month of Sunday's, but that's what the model is showing.

The bit that shows snow, Especially when you view the high res and the 850s your looking at leeds north. Like i said.

[JBMWeatherForever]

Looking forward to this northerly taking hold. Its then once the cold air is actually in place that I think we will see some very exciting synoptics being shown. In the forecast set up after the northerly, what is currently shown as marginal in some places will then be upgraded and pushed further west. The models always under estimate the effect of deep cold air in the UK. Watching with interest. 

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Rubbish, you don't need -10 uppers for snow in this kind of setup.

Some people base precipitation type solely on what the temperature is reading a mile up from the surface without taking into account other, and in some cases, more important factors.

[igloo]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry guys but it looks a damp squid for 90% percent of the country from Sunday onwards not sure why all the excitement the uppers are way to high cold Rain?

yes many people are in denial about next weeks forecast the uppers are simply to high even in my location it would be 50/50 for the first slider and for the second no chance it would be great if we still seen the cold uppers from the 60s and 70s then it would a different story 

[bradymk]

Think the models will continue to struggle with this “slider” for another day yet. Tomorrow 12z’s will bring us within +96 though so hopefully we have some agreement by then. 

This a bit off on a tangent and I know ECM is statistically the best model, but the last good snowfall in Wales in Jan 13. Look at it’s output change in 24 hours. From the +120hrs 12z chart one day to the following days 12z run at +96. Massive change in just 24 hours. Completely different event and situation but what a perfect slider that was! I am not comparing situations but just trying to highlight that we still have time for a fairly big change in the main models even if we are at +120.

ECM +120

ECM +96 the next day 

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by bradythemole

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Someone posted a picture last night of a blizzard with 10 foot snow drifts in the southwest with uppers of -2...to me the outlook beyond the arctic blast could continue to be cold cyclonic ..meaning further wintry ppn and night frosts rather than the usual default mild gunk.

They did, but having researched the said pattern it was noticeable how the winds were from a south easterly direction, this as others have said previously is key when considering upper air temperatures we need for snowfall, they are far lower when winds are off the continent. This was the set up...and it was late winter

 

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by KTtom

[karlos1983]

What a dire situation we find ourselves in........

[The Northern Ramper]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not true, GFS has a dumping down the spine of the country, ECM has snow Birmingham Northwards and deep snow Manchester Northwards.

EDIT : do I think those ridiculous snow totals will verify, not in a million month of Sunday's, but that's what the model is showing.

I'm getting hopeful for our location.

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

Some people base precipitation type solely on what the temperature is reading a mile up from the surface without taking into account other, and in some cases, more important factors.

Pointless having -10 uppers if your DPS are +2 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

They did, but having researched the said pattern it was noticeable how the winds were from a south easterly direction, this as others have said previously is key when considering upper air temperatures we need for snowfall, they are far lower when winds are off the continent.

Yes correct...

And as some have alluded...

Atlantic based/sourced atm....

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, MKN said:

The bit that shows snow, Especially when you view the high res and the 850s your looking at leeds north. Like i said.

That chart is only the GFS. Not the ECM.

Edited December 5, 2017 by MattStoke

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

The bit that shows snow, Especially when you view the high res and the 850s your looking at leeds north. Like i said.

Snow not a millin miles away from London, but the point I'm making really that to only have a band of snow 100-150 miles away from any given location, which that's all it would take to bring most into the equation, means it isn't game over for anywhere in Britain at T120 as your not talking huge pattern shift's, your talking minute adjustments.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

They did, but having researched the said pattern it was noticeable how the winds were from a south easterly direction, this as others have said previously is key when considering upper air temperatures we need for snowfall, they are far lower when winds are off the continent.

Agreed KTT...the one thing that's conspicuous by its absence (come Sunday and beyond) is a long-fetch undercut by cold, dry continental air...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I'm getting hopeful for our location.

I'm pretty confident it wont be a washout for us, I think it may correct westwards, which even if it did mean we were to miss out, we would be in with another chance midweek as we are still on the cold side.