Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[feb1991blizzard]

Rain at 168.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM 12z at 144 hours. Very cold and probably dry for many as high pressure nudges in from the east. Snow showers continue in the east. A low to the north west hopefully going to slide south east.

 

Too far East on this run, but GFS has it miles west of us, FI though, it's for next Sunday

[andymusic]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Too far East on this run, but GFS has it miles west of us, FI though, it's for next Sunday

maybe middle ground and just right - just like the three bears lol

[karlos1983]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Rain at 168.

Yup, but there’s wiggle room at D7, and these setups tend to back west not push east.

but yes 168 as modelled currently would be rain. 

[mulzy]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Rain at 168.

Yep - the low is heading sliding down about 500 miles too far east.  It's cold rain I am afraid.

...But it's a day 7 chart so this is not mailed down yet.  UKMO the pick for me tonight (from a coldies perspective).

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, carsey said:

And it slides!

looks great alignment for central/midlands UK

That's if your like rain that is

[Gustywind]

1 minute ago, carsey said:

And it slides!

looks great alignment for central/midlands UK

Nope pattern too far east and cold uppers mixed out somewhat by high pressure getting too close, rain for most away from high ground in north and east. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Uppers aren't great. Might be ok with the cold at the surface having built up for a few days though?

 

At least it won't be mild..God I ? saying that..anyway, get the cold in place first I always say

[Djdazzle]

Surely you need a much better cold feed with these sliders? Extremely marginal at best on the ECM. The best sliders in the past have cone up against strong blocking with a cold feed.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Too far East on this run, but GFS has it miles west of us, FI though, it's for next Sunday

Halfway house may be perfect  Prefer the GFS for me, with the high staying further west for longer. Gives an extra day of snow showers. Looks like the BBC are going with the ECM though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Too far East on this run, but GFS has it miles west of us, FI though, it's for next Sunday

and how far west the  GEFS control has it

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Could someone please explain to me are the charts showing potential cold and snow for all the country or just north? Coming from the Isle of Wight I’m really not sure whether to be excited or not? Obviously be great just to have a prolonged cold spell but wondered what our southerners chances of snow are? Sorry if wrong thread just trying to understand the charts? 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 Looks like the BBC are going with the ECM though.

That could change. It's still a week away! Enjoy the ride to another arctic blast.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

What a dogs dinner the ECM is making out of this..... eeesh

cold rain is my least favourite weather type.

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Could someone please explain to me are the charts showing potential cold and snow for all the country or just north? Coming from the Isle of Wight I’m really not sure whether to be excited or not? Obviously be great just to have a prolonged cold spell but wondered what our southerners chances of snow are? Sorry if wrong thread just trying to understand the charts? 

still no "real" detail yet - freezing 850s will reach you so anything is possible

[northwestsnow]

If you live in the scottish highlands EC is beyond amazing

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That could change. It's still a week away. Enjoy the ride to another arctic blast.

Of course.

I should have said that the BBC look like they're siding with the ECM up to Saturday. As they said high pressure would nudge in and cut off the snow showers (I'd rather it stayed further west, like on the GFS. Which it still could do). They then mentioned the slider lows, without giving any detail. As you would expect at that range. Beyond that, who knows? 

Edited December 3, 2017 by MattStoke

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Surely you need a much better cold feed with these sliders? Extremely marginal at best on the ECM. The best sliders in the past have cone up against strong blocking with a cold feed.

No you don’t need anything overly cold but I’m rather confident most will see cold rain based on them 850 temps. Good things it’s 7 days out a lot of water to go under the bridge, before that the chance of widespread snow showers and possible other disturbances within the flow, creating more organised snowfall. 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Rain at 168.

 

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - the low is heading sliding down about 500 miles too far east.  It's cold rain I am afraid.

...But it's a day 7 chart so this is not mailed down yet.  UKMO the pick for me tonight (from a coldies perspective).

Roughly North of the Home Counties its lots of snow

once the front is through  its damp thereafter 

Edited December 3, 2017 by bluearmy

[Snowman.]

Just now, Daniel* said:

No you don’t need anything overly cold but I’m rather confident most will see cold rain based on them 850 temps. Good things it’s 7 days out a lot of water to go under the bridge, before that the chance of widespread snow showers and possible other disturbances within the flow, creating more organised snowfall. 

When it comes to Sliders N and E of the low is usually a good spot for snow, those S and W will receive cold rain.

[snowking]

Two things which draw my attention at +192:

1) as Nick has been repeating over the last couple of days, that +PNA pattern is really helping to pull those lower heights away from Greenland.

2) That huge Aleutian low should help to drive further wave activity up into the stratosphere, which we also see on the GFS:

And on most other suites too.

As long as you are not getting hung up on day 4-6 snowfall potential with every individual det. run, there's a lot of positives to be had.

[snowice]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - the low is heading sliding down about 500 miles too far east.  It's cold rain I am afraid.

...But it's a day 7 chart so this is not mailed down yet.  UKMO the pick for me tonight (from a coldies perspective).

Well said it's just ecm has a lot of respect but 7 days out the sliders will shift either way

[igloo]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If you live in the scottish highlands EC is beyond amazing

not just the highlands anything above 300m should get a good covering that tends to be the mets advise in these setups

Edited December 3, 2017 by igloo

[knocker]

By 12 Thursday the ecm has the front just clearing Kent with possible northerly gales and heavy rain in Scotland

Twenty four hours later the strong, cold, NNW airstream covers all of the UK with max temps only about 3C in the south and around freezing in Scotland so wind chill has to be factored in. Frequent wintry showers, hail, snow, etc mainly concentrated in the north bur also down the west and east coasts.

By 12 Saturday the ridge has drifted in from the west so lighter north westerly’s with wintry showers more confined to the north but still very cold with max temps in the 3-4C range in England and Wales and N. Ireland and 1-2C in Scotland (as always just ball park figures)

But out to the west the trough emitted by the Canadian vortex is on it’s way driven by the 160kt jet and on this run the high pressure puts up slightly more resistance and the strong thermal gradient is pushed further north so that consequently the trough tracks into Ireland at 06 on Sunday accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds which proceed to traverse the country through Sunday.

The slider slips through so to speak and we remain on the cusp but these trending upgrades are a concern

 

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Of course.

I should have said that the BBC look like they're siding with the ECM up to Saturday. As they said high pressure would nudge in and cut off the snow showers. They then mentioned the slider lows, without giving any detail. As you would expect at that range. Beyond that, who knows? 

Thank gawd  it doesn't look like a repeat of how our recent cold snap ended with mild mush wafting in off the Atlantic. Anyway, our second arctic blast is in the bag, looks stronger than the one just gone and we could see real fun and games as lows slide SE into our in-situ cold pool with a risk of further snow during week 2..Very Exciting times potentially.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Frosty.