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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted

Great news, the GEFS 12z mean shows there is plenty of support for the cold to become entrenched for a good while, along with an on-going chance of snow as well as sharp / severe frosts over the snow fields...oh my...im sooo happy..as you can probably tell!:D:cold:..can't wait for the arctic blast..Mr freeze can't either!

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

Surprised no one has commented on the GFS ensembles, a LOT of them are showing a channel low undercut (or at least close to), here are all of them!

Control                                                      P2                                                              P3                                                          P4

image.thumb.png.e98298d5ea937fa72a9ee5466ba703ac.pngimage.thumb.png.41c5ca9df40c192d86dfc83122711a4c.pngimage.thumb.png.46f66fcf005b516c6c462a0910a59388.pngimage.thumb.png.bde127e00abe9b5a48fe82fb3df53760.png

P5                                                             P11                                                          P13                                                          P16

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Anyway the thing that strikes me about a lot of these runs is the number of them which leave the UK in a slack cold air mass because the Atlantic is too weak.

Is it onto something? or will the ECM make me look silly?

EDIT: I see the control has been discussed above however.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted
13 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Would this be an indication that Russia would be under high pressure ? 

To me that would indicate, northerly flow over western Europe and a southerly flow over Russia ie low pressure over Scandi or a trough to our east.

Happens in spring when we get a northerly flow, sometimes eastern Europe can get a heatwave at the sametime.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted

I see Chris Fawkes is in ramp mode! Got to love coldie meteorologists. “Disruptive snowfall likely”  :spiteful:

come on ECM, don’t let us down :give_rose:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I think the idea of lows sliding southeast into our in-situ cold pool at the end of next weekend into week 2 is increasing..but before that..a potent arctic blast develops from the north during thursday and then fri and sat we are in a true arctic flow with snow showers and frosty, icy conditions..lovely stuff!☺???:cold-emoji:

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
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Posted

I know things are not desperate but I thought I’d post the mighty Navgem. ?

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

12z ENS showing temperatures well below the avg at times for (UK Scotland/England) in December up to 19th anyway :cold:

graphe_ens4_pwg1.gifgraphe_ens4_ekv3.gif

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I know things are not desperate but I thought I’d post the mighty Navgem. ?

734D52C8-A275-488F-AE29-0B4289E4BB9F.png

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Thank God it's the NAVGEM - rain for the majority on that run.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Thank God it's the NAVGEM - rain for the majority on that run.

Has the BOM gone-off yet?

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted
59 minutes ago, Mucka said:

If GFS is right with the undercut and if that low does track SE as we might expect then that snow storm that was in the output might creep back in just for a later date.

gensnh-13-1-174.png

Yep, it may not be prevalent on the ops right now, but it would take a relatively small shift in flow upstream to reintroduce this scenario. Certainly one to watch.

I also agree with your thoughts regards the GFS handling on the Atlantic low. It looks plain wrong the way it drops south as it does, I posted earlier why, should it transpire, it would be a bit of a spanner in the works for us. Short term at least. There is so much potential, the next opportunity won't betoo far away by the looks of things.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Has the BOM gone-off yet?

There should be plenty of Booms later in the week.:bomb::bomb:.most exciting model watching since..err..yesterday!:D..come on Ecm:clapping:..darn it i'm out of points again Ed:laugh:

hidingbehindcouch.png

Edited by Frosty.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Thank God it's the NAVGEM - rain for the majority on that run.

Yes, tracking too far north and east

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

There should be plenty of Booms later in the week.:bomb::bomb:.most exciting model watching since..err..yesterday!:D..come on Ecm:clapping:

hidingbehindcouch.png

Absolutely!

But, before we all get over-excited, forecasting northerlies with possible slider lows has always been fraught with danger...

I think it was New Year 1980, when the old Farmers' forecast predicted a week of sometimes heavy, drifting snow for pretty-much the whole country...Of course it didn't pan-out quite like that: by midday Monday, the cold air had been displaced by the very 'slider low' that was supposed to cause much of the snow. Instead of 'sliding' it just wended its way from west to east!:cold-emoji:

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted
5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Clear mild sector moving from the north on GFS, Thursday night, only places to see snow off this are 500m plus, but FI yet, so hope better charts to come, but this is ugly!

hgt500-1000.png

Lol it will be back edge snow and possibly alot of it.

ECM is much cleaner and likely now.

Gefs is phenomenal incredible run.

This could be a very interesting very cold spell and fairly close to Christmas.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

144 chart should be very tasty on ecm 

0E13C794-254D-400E-86E3-839BD19A3172.thumb.png.9c84451375116710aeb34d0e7985cd09.png

Heights building in the right areas north for cold to extend

Edited by karlos1983
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

Lol it will be back edge snow and possibly alot of it.

ECM is much cleaner and likely now.

Gefs is phenomenal incredible run.

This could be a very interesting very cold spell and fairly close to Christmas.

It's gone on 12Z now anyway! 12 on left, 06 on right

hgt500-1000.pnghgt500-1000.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Slide baby slide 

099CEAA3-46C1-4C60-B110-30C5A34124A5.thumb.png.2b00f34a3dead8fe24940bd4c400e9b8.png

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Absolutely!

But, before we all get over-excited, forecasting northerlies with possible slider lows has always been fraught with danger...

I think it was New Year 1980, when the old Farmers' forecast predicted a week of sometimes heavy, drifting snow for pretty-much the whole country...Of course it didn't pan-out quite like that: by midday Monday, the cold air had been displaced by the very 'slider low' that was supposed to cause much of the snow. Instead of 'sliding' it just wended its way from west to east!:cold-emoji:

things have moved on a fair bit in the 37 years of forecasting if i can remember right this area had some 6 feet drifts at that time but it does look good this time for at least 3 days of snow even at lower levels further south

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

ECM 12z at 144 hours. Very cold and probably dry for many as high pressure nudges in from the east. Snow showers continue in the east. A low to the north west hopefully going to slide south east.

ECM0-144_fwm2.GIF
 

ECM1-144_ccb3.GIF

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
Just now, carsey said:

ECH1-168.GIF?03-0

And it slides!

looks great alignment for central/midlands UK

Uppers aren't great. Might be ok with the cold at the surface having built up for a few days though?

 

ECM0-168_eeq6.GIF

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