Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

You can't?

Not really?

and ends

Ok we have the trough locked in S Europe, but i think thats the main reason we are not looking down a zonal barrel -( flat jet.)

Obv if UKMO is right there will be no trough in Europe and sidney can get his mankini out..

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

I d

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Ok we have the trough locked in S Europe, but i think thats the main reason we are not looking down a zonal barrel -( flat jet.)

Obv if UKMO is right there will be no trough in Europe and sidney can get his mankini out..

I'm afraid I don't follow. At T144 the UKMO has a trough all the way down from Scandinavia, over the UK, to the Mediterranean No trough in Europe?

Edited December 3, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

I d

I'm afraid I don't follow. At T144 the UKMO has a trough all the way down from Scandinavia, over the UK, to the Mediterranean No trough in Europe?

But the high is going to sink with the jet going over it, whereas the EC has the jet diving south east

which will maintain the euro low anomoly- it wont happen like that on ukmo , imho

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Day 10]

54 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Those uppers will be rain here, need -10 off NW'ly, but thicknesses good

 

Are you sure about that!? From recent memory I had plenty of heavy snow showers here in Dec 2010 off -7/8 uppers an I live right by the Irish Sea coast.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Are you sure about that!? From recent memory I had plenty of heavy snow showers here in Dec 2010 off -7/8 uppers an I live right by the Irish Sea coast.

I'm on my phone, just checked the chart. I'll correct myself they were -10, so apologies. However I still think many will see snow late next week into the weekend, looks a good setup to me.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

I'm on my phone, just checked the chart. I'll correct myself they were -10, so apologies. However I still think many will see snow late next week into the weekend, looks a good setup to me.

Yes the EC snow depth chart looks good for the North west- (no idea how acc it is though).

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20171213-0000z.html

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Daniel*]

The MJO looks to be going active, phase 7 inbound one of the best phases to promote cold and snowy spells across Europe. I think it will be a significant guide on our weather in the next few weeks. One thing I can not see is, we’ll lose our block & everything will go flat and very mobile and generally mild this December is ripe for the taking IMO. 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The MJO looks to be going active, phase 7 inbound one of the best phases to promote cold and snowy spells across Europe. I think it will be a significant guide on our weather in the next few weeks. One thing I can not see is, we’ll lose our block & everything will go flat and very mobile and generally mild this December is ripe for the taking IMO. 

That’s good news, last thing we wanted to see was it to slow down before hitting Phase 6, and we absolutely want to see it progress! Good for Maintaining an amplified pattern. Happy with that. 

[Methuselah]

So, in spite of a rash of 'we're doomed; a flat jet is upon us and winter is over' type sentiment, everything is pretty-much as it was...Except that finding a chart better than some of last evening's must be nigh-on impossible...?

It's the third day of winter and my true love said to me 'twelve slider lows...'!

[bluearmy]

The eps extended are a little more Atlantic ridgy again which keep the sceuro trough sharper and uppers a bit lower - also the strongish  jet (courtesy of the cold upper temps eastern USA) whilst strong remains nw/se into Iberia as the Euro trough holds strong (for the time being).  

As far as the mid term is concerned, ec op remains on the same page although the control is further ne with the dropping system along with the mean and largest cluster. Until we get within ukmo territory on this evolution then we could be struggling to pin it down unless the other three models fall into good agreement. (Seems unlikely) 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, in spite of a rash of 'we're doomed; a flat jet is upon us and winter is over' type sentiment, everything is pretty-much as it was...Except that finding a chart better than some of last evening's must be nigh-on impossible...?

It's the third day of winter and my true love said to me 'twelve slider lows...'!

I'm promoting a petition for 'slider low' to be put in the swear filter with immediate effect.

[nick sussex]

I see the UKMO has caused a stir this morning!

Unfortunately because we only get the limited view on the T168hrs its hard to see what its doing to the ne but if you look at the high the centre remains roughly in the same position between the T144hrs and T168hrs .

Theres no major push eastwards into Europe which means low heights are still in evidence in central Europe you've also got the lobe of high pressure exiting Newfoundland which would help draw the high a bit further west after T168hrs.

It's of course not as good as the ECM/GFS but it's not what I'd call a calamity.

The upstream trough is effected by shortwave energy running east and this is the main uncertainty as to the amplitude of that and how it ejects into the Atlantic.

However the positive PNA is expected to remain and allied to the lobe of high pressure to the ne will track the jet more se'wards.

The UKMO does not show the jet heading ne but ese which means forcing remains to the ne.

 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm promoting a petition for 'slider low' to be put in the swear filter with immediate effect.

IMO, knocks, 'slider low' is one of only a very few pseudo-meteorological definitions that makes any sense; it's what I used to call them, when I was ten.

PS: Nobody had a clue what I was on about even then!

Edited December 3, 2017 by Ed Stone

[The Northern Ramper]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm promoting a petition for 'slider low' to be put in the swear filter with immediate effect.

Please do not slide so low ?

[tinybill]

well deep in fantasy world 

[Summer Sun]

I don't know what UKMO's success rate is at t168 but coldies will be hoping this mornings run ends up in the bin and isn't repeated tonight

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I don't know what UKMO's success rate is at t168 but coldies will be hoping this mornings run ends up in the bin and isn't repeated tonight

To be fair the ukmo has hardly got anything right at 168 hours over the last few weeks!!probably change in the next run anyway!!

[jethro]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Not really?

and ends

Ok we have the trough locked in S Europe, but i think thats the main reason we are not looking down a zonal barrel -( flat jet.)

Obv if UKMO is right there will be no trough in Europe and sidney can get his mankini out..

Looks like a giant gingerbread man to me, very seasonal looking chart....

[Iceberg]

Ec eps saves the morning for me. The ops fired the jet a bit too much for my liking with little ridging to the  North Atlantic and a prelude to a flatter jet. 

I had hoped that the eps might help to show the col like conditions being replaced with more heights. 

Eps avg shows this nicely considerably higher pressure around iceland etc and so many more eps members give us a driver to help maintain the jet further south and west. 

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Ec eps saves the morning for me. The ops fired the jet a bit too much for my liking with little ridging to the  North Atlantic and a prelude to a flatter jet. 

I had hoped that the eps might help to show the col like conditions being replaced with more heights. 

Eps avg shows this nicely considerably higher pressure around iceland etc and so many more eps members give us a driver to help maintain the jet further south and west. 

I’m more than happy with what the models show this morning, if we get a cold end of the week and weekend with a good chance of snow then great. I’d worry about the following week a bit nearer the time as it’s sure to chop and change

[markw2680]

Just now, markw2680 said:

I’m more than happy with what the models show this morning, if we get a cold end of the week and weekend with a good chance of snow then great. I’d worry about the following week a bit nearer the time as it’s sure to chop and change

Sorry iceburg that wasn’t meant to quote you not sure what happened ?

[Met4Cast]

GFS 06z not going the way of the UKMO either, so that's good news.

[shaky]

And theres stronger heights going into greenland on the 06z!!

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, Danny* said:

GFS 06z not going the way of the UKMO either, so that's good news.

It's actually going further the other way!! Intriguing, prior to the run I thought it would go more like ukmo. Hey what do I know

Edited December 3, 2017 by That ECM

[Mucka]

The low may have been modelled further North meaning initially snow will be confined to high ground but things still look very good after front moves SE.

Lot's of unstable cold air flooding over the country and looks likely to be an embedded trough or two bringing more organised bands of snow showers.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Mucka