Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[mb018538]

Thoughts on this towards mid-December? Perhaps a meander back into something more 'normal' as the PV re-organises towards mid-month?

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

And it looks like a rinse and repeat for the foreseeable of cold and milder blips. Neither the heights nor the systems from the west winning. Favoured places seeing snow showers but nothing country wide. 

Anything is better than the usual constant mild mush, I'm just happy that coldies have some cold wintry spells to look forward to during December..much better output this morning, with luck to continue on the 6z, 12z & 18z

[bluearmy]

Eps - cold and cyclonic with broad euro trough losing euro heights convincingly and sooner than previous runs 

thats in high res !

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Thoughts on this towards mid-December? Perhaps a meander back into something more 'normal' as the PV re-organises towards mid-month?

My thoughts are currently that because the whole trop strat connectivity seems so trop led at the moment, I wouldn’t consider gefs/gfs to be the best guidance. If eps agree then that’s different. 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps - cold and cyclonic with broad euro trough losing euro heights convincingly and sooner than previous runs 

thats in high res !

What a great start to winter!

Euro slug to get a Damn good thrashing / salting!!

Edited December 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps - cold and cyclonic with broad euro trough losing euro heights convincingly and sooner than previous runs 

thats in high res !

Yes the Det has the euro trough in place at day 10 but i really do not like the look of that PV getting ready to perch itself in its usual place...Blue, can i ask  if you are seeing any similarities to January 1984 in the current modelling- i think i am..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Period of 7-10 of Dec seems to be something to be watched closely.  Possibilities of some heavy snowfall in places.  GFS been toying for a while, and now getting within range of theirs and they are all sniffing.   The major HL blocking that was being looked at has fallen away (it was surprising me) but certainly no blow torch set up in the offing and seasonal ‘at least’.  Rhythm of  winter?

 

BFTP

Edited December 1, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

Eps extended stays the same to day 15

signs of a transient upper ridge being thrown east across the Atlantic late on which I suspect would have a good chance  of  cutting off and sinking the sceuro low with ridging into n scandi

anyway, best run of the season given its actually winter !! (No, it really could be the best run we get!)

 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps extended stays the same to day 15

signs of a transient upper ridge being thrown east across the Atlantic late on which I suspect would have a good chance  of  cutting off and sinking the sceuro low with ridging into n scandi

anyway, best run of the season given its actually winter !! (No, it really could be the best run we get!)

 

Courtesy of the Canadian vortex lobe and a little eastward shift

[nick sussex]

I'm pleased to announce the recipient of the first winter season Epic Fail award goes to yesterday evenings ECM which was incorrect at just T96hrs!

Anyway moving on from a woeful performance by the ECM good agreement this morning for the pattern with the big 3 splitting low pressure to the sw with a low tracking east with a chance of snow on the northern flank and then a briefish n/nw flow.

After that the Azores high displaces allowing a lowering of heights across central Europe. Because of that low pressure will try and track more se in towards the UK. At this time the depth of any low and exact track will determine whether the UK remains on the cold side of the jet which if that is the case a chance of some further snowfall as that engages that colder air.

The current evolution isn't one that shouts deep cold or non-stop cold for the timebeing but has the scope to deliver some cold and snow. Overall though interest for coldies.

It could be worse and certainly given recent winters the fact we're even talking about some possibilities is a refreshing change.

[northwestsnow]

Yes the EC mean has PM air written all over it- could be potentially very interesting for NW Britain in particular- the scottish ski industry would be rubbing their hands with that setup..

sorry i should have said EC mean day 8 onwards ..

Edited December 1, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended getting close to a northerly as the deep low begins to pull away

[karlos1983]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended getting close to a northerly as the deep low begins to pull away

Now that is certainly of interest! The High cant really sink either as it's being propped up by the Atlantic low and heights lowered on the continent. BANK!! if i'm reading that correctly?

Edited December 1, 2017 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

Interestingly - the sources I use show the ECM as having a (marginal) large nationwide snowfall event on Sunday 10th, as an Atlantic front engages cold air ahead.

[Devonshire]

13 hours ago, nick sussex said:

13 hours ago, Devonshire said:

Has anyone got any stats about 10 day verification gfs vs ecm ops?

Here you go, hope this link helps:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Thank you - lots of info there - I will put aside some time to study it!

[feb1991blizzard]

27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly - the sources I use show the ECM as having a (marginal) large nationwide snowfall event on Sunday 10th, as an Atlantic front engages cold air ahead.

True but its below 1 inch for the vast majority.

[karyo]

57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Now that is certainly of interest! The High cant really sink either as it's being propped up by the Atlantic low and heights lowered on the continent. BANK!! if i'm reading that correctly?

This chart will be followed by a decent northerly shot but the high should still sink somewhat due to the energy in the northern side. However a further cold shot from the northwest will probably follow at some stage.

[karlos1983]

GFS 06z looks a better run for the northerly. 

00z06z

[radiohead]

Looking a little better than the 0Z here

Rain turning to snow.

Edited December 1, 2017 by radiohead

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS 06z looks a better run for the northerly. 

00z06z

Yeah looks a fair bit better, WAA into Greenland is stronger and in a more vertical angle which should give a longer northerly shot 

[northwestsnow]

Much better- possible rain to snow event somewhere across the UK next thur..

Think places with altitude in the north midlands right up to the borders and beyond could see a covering ...

edit actually even south of the midlands!

Cracking run this - ok no deep freeze coming but a definite potential snow event...

Edited December 1, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

Much better at 162, look at the difference of height around southern Greenland

00z

06z, could an Arctic high link up happen

Edited December 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Much better- possible rain to snow event somewhere across the UK next thur..

Think places with altitude in the north midlands right up to the borders and beyond could see a covering ...

edit actually even south of the midlands!

Cracking run this - ok no deep freeze coming but a definite potential snow event...

My money is on this being the first M4 corridor North  event of the season.  I'm going to remove that road one day.

[Ali1977]

Is this a rogue run, so much different at close range - and way way better for coldies 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Much better at 162, look at the difference of height around southern Greenland

00z

06z, could an Arctic high link up happen

Bank Bank and double Bank.

Edited December 1, 2017 by booferking