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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Full ensembles. No real use only posted to get post count up. But it does show chilly temps 

IMG_1078.GIF

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s the best set of Ensembles I’ve seen for a few runs in terms of an organised downward trend in temps.

6AB66D08-4C3E-4908-857A-F43DF82FA48D.thumb.gif.9e0d44057176542811f5ce3489dfff26.gif

 

That's great news Karl...Amazing, it's the first day of winter tomorrow and it feels like we've been hunting for cold for ages already..exhausted but ready for the shiny new winter season..bring it on!:santa-emoji:

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Full ensembles. No real use only posted to get post count up. But it does show chilly temps 

IMG_1078.GIF

There does seem to be more clustering towards the colder side on the ensembles this evening, GFS/ECM show a cooling trend. I think we can probably agree we wont be getting any "deep cold" anytime soon. From what I've seen, it looks like briefly cold followed by briefly mild followed by cold again seems to be the way forward. Transient ridging Northwards in the Atlantic followed by a topple.

Not great for snow in the South, but the North could do quite well in the usual places.

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42 minutes ago, knocker said:

So those of us who are genuinely interested in meteorology and objective analysis needn't bother then. If you are not member of the 'club' you tend to get treated with contempt in this thread

I am consumed by meteorology and 'Mother Nature' and try objective analysis also, but I also love cold weather. I try damned hard not to get into the emotive "please let it snow" campaign too. But it must be said, the "mildness" gang as you have become known (not my term) can sometimes be quite dismissive of the hundreds of oldies post here. I always read what you post knocker, because it's informed, educated and not biased (usually) much like Nick and many others here. I am aware of the 'likes/smilies/sad/angry' gang, but that doesn't really bother me. What bothers me here is the angst shown by both sides of the temperature gangs. That is just ridiculous. The moderators here must be sick of pulling hen's teeth!!!

Back to the models again. There is such a huge discrepancy at a relatively short range between such usually reliable time-frames! I would wait until another 24/36 hours to see where we are actually going. Models struggle historically with unusual set ups in locality, time for all to take a chill pill. EVERYBODY!

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1 minute ago, Danny* said:

There does seem to be more clustering towards the colder side on the ensembles this evening, GFS/ECM show a cooling trend. I think we can probably agree we wont be getting any "deep cold" anytime soon. From what I've seen, it looks like briefly cold followed by briefly mild followed by cold again seems to be the way forward. Transient ridging Northwards in the Atlantic followed by a topple.

Not great for snow in the South, but the North could do quite well in the usual places.

Yes and the mean is around the -5 in some places. Those ensembles are for middle England  if that happens it should snow here. Not to much of a leap to get snow further south 

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That's it, it's winter!

Come 00z suite in a few hours time, let us know winter will be arriving in style :)

Edited by s4lancia
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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

That's it, it's winter!

Come 00z suite in a few hours time, let us know winter will be arriving in style :)

Yes and it's started cold as well :yahoo:

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Really really suprised by the 18 Z GEFS - they look really cold mid term.

There were a few members who were colder than the op- 

I was incredibly downbeat yesterday, esp after seeing the 00z runs but now i'n not sure what to think, probably like the vast majority of others..

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And the 0z from the GFS brings a northernly again for the UK. Chalk and cheese with the ECM 12z.

ECM to have major egg on its face this morning? Or GFS to back down on the 6z or 12z?

No idea.

Id usually go with the ECM, but seeing how disinterested the GEFS 12 and 18 were, now the 0z GFS...

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UKMO/GFS/GEM at day 6

UW144-21.GIF?01-05   gfs-0-144.png   gem-0-144.png?00

All three show an area of low pressure moving eastwards towards the UK which would deepen quickly as it engages the cold air moving south from the Arctic. So a potential spell of rain and then gales which will veer north/north westerly on the back edge. The result looks like a toppler but cold bring a small period of snow showers at the day 7/8 range in that northerly.

Something to keep an eye on as the ECM comes out.

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E-ly to watch later for december

47.png

68.png

gens-0-1-336.png

Edited by Dennis
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Good agreement at t144 between ukmo and GFS just needs the ecm onboard and we have another shot of winter at the end of next week.

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Much better start to the day, ecm rolling out, UKMO looking good moving forward, high pressure in the north Atlantic ridging into Greenland, although only really southern most tip and that's been generous as it's surface pressure mainly but a tanking AO with low pressure underneath the Atlantic high moving our way so a basis to undercut her and keeping it on a high stool! So possible snow events moving forward.

Screenshot_20171201-063130.png

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Good agreement at t144 between ukmo and GFS just needs the ecm onboard and we have another shot of winter at the end of next week.

Looks like ECM is onboard, that date again...

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The plot slowly evolves as the GFS brings the potent Nly next week back into the picture. The areas of low pressure in the atlantic are playing havoc with the models in terms of their position and strength due to sharp temperature differences. 

Never a dull moment .  

 

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A good-ish ECM in FI and to be a honest a backtrack from the last night's appalling run.  Day 10 chart looks good to me despite the PV in the Eastern Canada locale.

ECH1-240.GIF?01-12

 

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A bit of consistency around a pattern. northerly later next week followed by another system wanting to push se and disrupt against building heights to our east. ecm similar to its previous run later on but a less sharp pattern upstream pushes things a bit east with a flatter downstream one. I think upstream is too flat over n America so would expect that disruption to be much closer to the uk. Gfs control style. by tomorrow morning things could be different again but that's a pretty good assessment of where we sit. 

yetserdays ecm op almost a tech ssw but given gfs current direction of travel up there it would be good to get the eps strat extended picture though we have to wait for the odd  tweet titbit on that one! 

Edited by bluearmy
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the blocking is reloading again..... could be long time (pattern) no strong west-circulation

75.gif

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Well done to GFS correct me if I’m wrong but it’s been the first to latch on onto a region of low pressure swinging in E now all the models are showing it therefore reasonable confidence.

GFS 00z shows much colder air behind it as it tracks into the near continent. 

There remains a risk of significant snowfall but it appears touch and go a rain to snow event seems more probable. 

24437D49-E09C-494F-8098-FB795262FB6F.thumb.png.f817c5a46179e3e0e7e03f14fc8a662a.pngDE93330B-36C5-437E-B32E-4C7FFF5F45E8.thumb.png.5893855f9e0fccd9e929a0f4e734d337.png

Edited by Daniel*
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At the beginning the general theme of the ecm is much along the lines of the gfs but it quickly varies into what does appear a much 'cleaner' evolution.

At T96 it has the front and well developed wave over Iceland with the high cell firmly over the UK.

By T120 the elongated wave stretches to the shores of Norway whilst the front has moved south over Scotland and phased with the main low west of Ireland whose associated front is orientated N/S west of Ireland, This has tended to engage the colder quicker and drag it south in mid Atlantic

By T144 the front to the west has traversed the country and the low is now centred over Stornoway which brings heavy rain the Scotland and N. Ireland with severe westerly gales in many areas..

During Thursday the low tracks into southern Norway veering the gales NW then N and initiating wintry showers in many areas in the cooler airstream.

Meanwhile while all of the has been going on the Bermuda high pressure has been surging north east (courtesy of the cold trough in eastern N. America) and so by T192 we have another high cell the west of the UK waiting to be zapped by the east bound energy and 170kt jet. But I'm getting ahead of myself

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.65136f58250dea7a7c122a078c3958d3.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.43fd5dcc53070cc29359c0572b1c0ef3.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.db26c7c756f324ad04c8422a1e7deefd.png

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13 minutes ago, knocker said:

At the beginning the general theme of the ecm is much along the lines of the gfs but it quickly varies into what does appear a much 'cleaner' evolution.

At T96 it has the front and well developed wave over Iceland with the high cell firmly over the UK.

By T120 the elongated wave stretches to the shores of Norway whilst the front has moved south over Scotland and phased with the main low west of Ireland whose associated front is orientated N/S west of Ireland, This has tended to engage the colder quicker and drag it south in mid Atlantic

By T144 the front to the west has traversed the country and the low is now centred over Stornoway which brings heavy rain the Scotland and N. Ireland with severe westerly gales in many areas..

During Thursday the low tracks into southern Norway veering the gales NW then N and initiating wintry showers in many areas in the cooler airstream.

Meanwhile while all of the has been going on the Bermuda high pressure has been surging north east (courtesy of the cold trough in eastern N. America) and so by T192 we have another high cell the west of the UK waiting to be zapped by the east bound energy and 170kt jet. But I'm getting ahead of myself

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.65136f58250dea7a7c122a078c3958d3.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.43fd5dcc53070cc29359c0572b1c0ef3.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.db26c7c756f324ad04c8422a1e7deefd.png

And by 240z the East bound Jet turned out to be a North Korean DUD or SCUD but as you rightly say let's not get ahead of ourselves:)

 

 

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by winterof79

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7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Just hope they'll be better than this morning's 00z runs. 

And they are, compared to this time yesterday..a significant upgrade with cold weather returning following a milder blip!:santa-emoji:😀😉😃

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