Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Scandinavian High.]

BBC saying staying cold in to next week  with  further snow ..

[Day 10]

Weather for the end of the week and into the weekend in my cold & snow tinted goggles:

Friday/Saturday - The Arctic rolls in.

Sunday/Monday/Tuesday - Look out for those sliders...

Leaving the UK plastered in snow.

CONCLUSION

We are all very happy!

Now come on 18Z GFS follow the script.

[JBMWeatherForever]

The GEM is something akin to snowmageddon !   This weeks northerly looks like just the starter before the main course northerly during next week!!   Then for desert a pre-Christmas Easterly!!!     Very Tasty!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

BBC saying staying cold in to next week  with  further snow ..

thats fabulous news and shows the pros expect the UK or much of the UK to stay on the cold side of the jet!!

[weirpig]

While we are between runs here is a few ens from the ecm regarding the slider Sunday.  For those down sarf there are a few beauties  showing London under nearly a foot of snow. There are some differences between the members ( as you would expect)  and there does look like a shift south on the mean  still all to play for 

Edited December 5, 2017 by weirpig

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

While we are between runs here is a few ens from the ecm regarding the slider Sunday.  For those down sarf there are a few beauties  showing London under nearly a foot of snow. There are some differences between the members ( as you would expect)  and there does look like a shift south on the mean  still all to play for 

Agreed- and the beeb talking of cold persisting into next week for much of the uk suggests there isnt going to be an Atlantic breakdown !!

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep but just translating what is possibly suggested.  However Jan 1987 was from the 7th Jan with one of the most potent easterlies witnessed by anyone on here.  Nothing is written in stone as we all know

 

BFTP

Indeed the winter weather ahead is a blank page and interesting enough no year in recorded history is or has been the same, each year ,whatever time of year is unique let's just enjoy our very interesting and intriguing weather

[Hull snow]

On 02/12/2017 at 22:48, LRD said:

Yep, looking at the southerly jet and persistent euro low on the 18z, my first thought was "backtrack". Or, to put it another way... no, it wasn't

 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

thats fabulous news and shows the pros expect the UK or much of the UK to stay on the cold side of the jet!!

That's what the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows..great news

[Hull snow]

So is the bbc looking at something similar to the gem ??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed- and the beeb talking of cold persisting into next week for much of the uk suggests there isnt going to be an Atlantic breakdown !!

Against their own model then! this dosen't even show a slider, looks more like a traditional low, Atlantic steaming through?

[Devonshire]

1 hour ago, terrier said:

Then into next week looks like it could turn very wet for most of the uk. 

Sorry to hear that ...

in other news, the models suggest that even us down in the SW might see snow- even next week.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed the winter weather ahead is a blank page and interesting enough no year in recorded history is or has been the same, each year ,whatever time of year is unique let's just enjoy our very interesting and intriguing weather

Agree to an extent on local scale, but I believe synoptically we do repeat and I believe weather events can be picked up on looking back.

 

BFTP

[Snowmadsam]

I maybe able to shed some light on the Beeb situation and what they base forecasts on, after a week work experience in the weather centre around this time last year.

Duty weather managers are the only ones who can add raindrops or snowflakes onto forecasts. Even BBC/Meto forecasters have to go through the duty forecaster to add something to charts. Guidance is also handed over to the BBC every six hours from Exeter. 

With regard to the current situation, I suspect a playing it safe situation is very much being used. For short term forecasts BBC uses NAE and UKV models primarily in regards to precipitation.

The situation at the moment weatherwise, is in a word. Unpredictable. I am expecting that slider to head on a more Southerly track. But we will have to wait and see.

P.S Also Carol Kirkwood really is nice and very funny

Now. I'm going to boil the kettle and watch the 18z come out 

[nick sussex]

It looks like crunch time is approaching for the first slider low.

So if you're in the high risk or high fun area time to start biting those finger nails.

The good news is that past this slider the upstream pattern re-amplifies and even the underwhelming UKMO at T144hrs goes onto to take the next upstream low further se at T168hrs.

It's not a case of miss this opportunity and then having to wait weeks for another.

[Methuselah]

Just now, nick sussex said:

It looks like crunch time is approaching for the first slider low.

So if you're in the high risk or high fun area time to start biting those finger nails.

The good news is that past this slider the upstream pattern re-amplifies and even the underwhelming UKMO at T144hrs goes onto to take the next upstream low further se at T168hrs.

It's not a case of miss this opportunity and then having to wait weeks for another.

I wonder if the GFS (cannon-fodder, according to some) will rehabilitate that spiffing Beast from The East it was showing yesterday. Or was it the day before yesterday? Time to bring out the tenterhooks!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

I wonder if the GFS (cannon-fodder, according to some) will rehabilitate that spiffing Beast from The East it was showing yesterday. Or was it the day before yesterday? Time to bring out the tenterhooks!

No it’s cannn fodder Pete 

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

Eps look like they revert back closer  to yesterday's 12z mean re snowfall distribution 

the cluster on the spreads showing a gem type evolution still exists so that side of the envelope can't be closed off. Similarly, a flatter solution cluster  as per the 00z ec op run is likely still there. so we are none the wiser but given the ecm and gfs both show the same locale for the trough at day 5, the odds on that being the actual solution have increased.  

as also alluded by others, the likelihood of a developing scandi ridge end week 2 and into week 3 have increased a bit though nothing convincing on the eps probability slp charts at day 15 behind nw Russia.just yet 

and just for good measure the ec control brings a sub -10c easterly by day 15.  Apropos of nowt of course! 

[karlos1983]

23 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Thats Sixteen days off.

And......? Still completely relevant 

Edited December 5, 2017 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps look like they revert back closer  to yesterday's 12z mean re snowfall distribution 

the cluster on the spreads showing a gem type evolution still exists so that side of the envelope can't be closed off. Similarly, a flatter solution cluster  as per the 00z ec op run is likely still there. so we are none the wiser but given the ecm and gfs both show the same locale for the trough at day 5, the odds on that being the actual solution have increased.  

as also alluded by others, the likelihood of a developing scandi ridge end week 2 and into week 3 have increased a bit though nothing convincing on the eps probability slp charts at day 15 behind nw Russia.just yet 

and just for good measure the ec control brings a sub -10c easterly by day 15.  Apropos of nowt of course! 

Blue which was better rgding snowfall distribution? 

[snowbunting]

I thought I would share some runs from the models last friday for the big thursday event.  I found it fascinating how the gfs and ecm fared out in Fl. 

Gfs stuck to its guns with the cold nly outbreak but underplayed the area of low pressure with the ECM similar. 

One last thing. Is Storm Caroline likely to produce a potent sting jet given the steap temp gradient as she moves through on Thurs

 

 

[Timmytour]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 Time to bring out the tenterhooks!

The ten to tentehooks is about when we know!!

[Summer Sun]

North of the M4 looks good for snow on Sunday at the moment

[Dennis]

wow a major winterstorm.....GEM today

[offerman]

4 hours ago, offerman said:

Problem

i see

is that Azores high yet again

 

if that could move westwards then that would

open up the floodgates from the north . 

If that could move west and extend north that would open up full prolonged northerly like 1980s