Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The ec members eps are even better for Sunday. The control has snow for everybody away from the sw on Sunday 5-15cm and a majority of the members have snow from Devon upwards. 

Thank you for that info. How does northern England fair?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The ec members eps are even better for Sunday. The control has snow for everybody away from the sw on Sunday 5-15cm and a majority of the members have snow from Devon upwards. 

I will bet my bottom dollar that low is corrected westwards over the nex 24 to 36 hours.

That EC mean is really really good.

[Iceberg]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you for that info. How does northern England fair?

This is the control and probably the furthest north realistically. 

Most are further south. 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fabulous ec mean matey 

Yes it is mate, far superior to the operational as you and tight isobar have pointed out...hoping for the cold to continue through next week and even further ahead.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[SMU]

I cant even be bothered to comment on the operational ECM its been poor & progressive in the last 5-7 days producing poor runs against its own means & against the UKMO & GFS.

The expected track ( based on all observed examples ) is that the slider lows will be further SW & sharper, however as highlighted before with no blocking ahead of them then for the SW & south the forward push of milder uppers will mean low chances of snow- the system will have to be very shallow further North & East may be colder but run the risk of being dry..

so other than that great runs tonight- wind an issue for Scotland as well- all the Ski resorts will be storm bound at the weekend with blizzards- windchill poss -20 maybe even -25c...

Elsewhere troughs & streamers ( Cheshire gap etc ) will be abundent ...

Looking forward to better resolution of the sliders over the next 48 hours...

S

Edited December 4, 2017 by Steve Murr

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

This is the control and probably the furthest north realistically. 

Most are further south. 

too good, perfect, 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The ec members eps are even better for Sunday. The control has snow for everybody away from the sw on Sunday 5-15cm and a majority of the members have snow from Devon upwards. 

Strange as the control shows the same bump of higher uppers into c s england at day 6 as the low tracks se through the midlands 

EDIT : I can see from the map you posted that this is feasible ahead of the rise in uppers 

Steve - ec op is not doing badly. It’s been the first to detect most of what had verified as the way forward over the past couple weeks. Whilst the odd run has been flatter than it should be the reality has been that the amplifications are verifying with far less duration than gfs is modelling and ecm is picking that up. It first modelled the diving trough on Saturday whilst gfs has only got inti the same page 48 hours later. 

Edited December 4, 2017 by bluearmy

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you for that info. How does northern England fair?

If the sliders tend more South and west as can be the case here northern England and Scotland north of say Birmingham would end up in frigid cold air but mostly dry unless convection off the North Sea can make it over the Pennines but that depends on the strength of the wind .

[Iceberg]

Monday morning on the control. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

too good, perfect, 

Beyond our wildest dreams !!

What a fasinating period of model watching tho...bet exeter are watching things VERY closely!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

Monday morning on the control. 

Jesus is that snow?? LOL..in my dreams...and plenty of others i will wager!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beyond our wildest dreams !!

What a fasinating period of model watching tho...bet exeter are watching things VERY closely!

Miles in FI when you think though

[Iceberg]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Strange as the control shows the same bump of higher uppers into c s england at day 6 as the low tracks se through the midlands 

Control eps has the warm sector much smaller, goes thru quicker and drags in the cold quicker. 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I would wait and see what tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows because the GEFS 12z mean is cold, more cold and then..more cold!

And the great news is the Ecm 12z ensemble mean keeps the cold theme going like the Gefs and also the chances of further snow with plenty more frosty / icy conditions.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[tight isobar]

So-conclusion-..(as expected)

Ecm operational is drifting off in the realms of graveyard output.

Iv'e lost a fare bit of faith in the operational-of late!.

And this evenings 12z.  

Was to my eye barking up the wrong tree ...in even its basic evolutionary!

 

Edited December 4, 2017 by tight isobar

[Iceberg]

Here’s 6 of he first 10 eps members for Monday morning. I haven’t gone thru all of them but it’s pretty clear re the trend. 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Iceberg

[booferking]

Guys Guys stop throwing out snow charts from EC it is 90% time completely wrong its not gospel not even close.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Guys Guys stop throwing out snow charts from EC it is 90% time completely wrong its not gospel not even close.

Your bang on with that...

But great viewing nontheless!?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Guys Guys stop throwing out snow charts from EC it is 90% time completely wrong its not gospel not even close.

Good point and it will only compound my misery as i watch a solitatary flake of dandruff float past my front window.

[bluearmy]

Clarification on the eps average snowcover to day 10 is the snowiest run since the crazy Saturday 12z. Does it mean anything ?  Prob all not!

[Allseasons-Si]

Well what another fantastic day of model watching,but i would like to remind people to take a step back and a deep breath about the snow charts at that range,IT IS A NOWCAST SITUATION as to how much you get,if any

now back to the models

ecm/gfs mean,850's and the height anomly's at day ten look absolutely rock solid there side by side

london av temps "yes,av temps",and 850's,now what is there to complain about

oh!!!,and i spotted GP shooting is missile earlier

 

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Guys Guys stop throwing out snow charts from EC it is 90% time completely wrong its not gospel not even close.

Yes indeed , it's like who will get thunderstorms in the summer ,computer model outputs for snow are useless ,Answer just hang some seaweed outside your door

[snowbob]

Well 12z appears to be great for our northern friends

us southerners rain 

but these always as I remember correct south so hopefully that will pull down colder weather nationwide then everyone’s happy.

not sure about ecm still.

believe that will adjust more to the gfs come the 0z 

small steps but it will

[Guest]

If and that's a big if the ECM is anywhere near being right Thursday night into Friday is looking some what troubling for me, I'm no expert but that is one brutal storm being shown and I would much prefer the GFS take on things because I still get snow without being relocated to Norway at the same time.

[Methuselah]

So, it's nearly time for the next round of GFS mayhem:

With the weekend's fun and games securely nailed on (or should that be deftly held together with a giant blob of Blutac!), the potential for a FI dose of super-snowy easterlies is far from a done deal...Interestingly, the ensembles show that the Op's plunge into Moominland is backed-up by only one other member...

So, even though many of the building blocks seem to be coming together, just at the right time, more runs are needed.