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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, radiohead said:

Deepening low with cold air on the north side. Blizzards for some!

gfs-0-189-3h.png?18

Norther flank of that incoming low would be white out condtions..

via 18z...

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

LOL! The heights over France have finally dropped but the GFS has indeed exploded the low. Blizzards anyone?

LOL.thumb.png.4c81dc4035ecce617d99443e8ce021e3.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Wow another good GFS run!

Barring the ECM which although an improvement is still being a bit stingy it’s been a very positive evening for coldies.

It would be great to usher in the northerly with a snow event for some lucky part of the UK.

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This is insane. There'll be more than a foot of snow from this across the Midlands. Maybe two feet!!
 

gfs-0-192.png?18  gfs-1-192.png?18  gfs-2-192.png?18

Itl never happen. At +192 ish it has around 1% chance at best.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS is probably going to do a special and blow that low up into something ridiculous now

5a1de1f12eddc_GFSspecial.thumb.png.a4f50fc315d381bdc34a16176af87ef8.png

In reality it'll be a smaller wave like feature, if it even develops in reality. The heights across France aren't great but that's me being picky.

It's crazy - it almost ends up with hurricane force winds!

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is insane. There'll be more than a foot of snow from this across the Midlands. Maybe two feet!!
 

gfs-0-192.png?18  gfs-1-192.png?18  gfs-2-192.png?18

Oh my! Please verify 18z for once in your life lol :)

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

What a chart at 198.  Just for fun at this range but this would potentially be a pretty major event for quite a swathe of the country

gfsnh-0-198.png?18  gfsnh-1-198.png?18 gfs-2-198.png?18

 

 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted

If you've ever wondered what a chart with a countrywide blizzard looks like, here it is

WOW.thumb.png.9406bbfc8d9477cd522253d7c5a64592.png

The warm sector is well to the South-East of that low, blizzards moving South from the Midlands into Southern England and London. This is probably one of the most incredible, 1960's like chart I've seen produced. it honestly is absolutely stunning. 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Pub run special. If only  more important for me is the trend. And at the moment it's looking good . Snow could pop up anywhere if this trend continues . Brilliant model watching . 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

A truly insane run...

It really would be shutdown time..

With relentless snowfall coupled with forceful winds!!!!!!

18z...

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More Runs Needed Aficionado

More Runs Needed

Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
Posted

I think I might bank this 18z :pardon:

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Stationary Front said:

Almost to the anniversary December day in 1990 

Not saying it will happen but got a feeling that if we do get a dumping this early in season, that's the kind of analogue I'm looking at, GFS very keen to develop these waves identical to 1990 event.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

If the ECM shows anything like this tomorrow morning this place is going to go into meltdown. 

Back to reality for a second - The chance of anything close to tonights 18z coming off is extremely low, and would quite easily beat December 2010 in terms of cold and snow depth. Quite incredible, really. 

The 18z has definitely been on the tequila this evening.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

What a chart at 198.  Just for fun at this range but this would potentially be a pretty major event for quite a swathe of the country

gfsnh-0-198.png?18  gfsnh-1-198.png?18 gfs-2-198.png?18

 

 

Yes, further south than I initially thought, looked it would track over N England, giving only Scotland snow, pure FI though

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& on it goes

-10c widespread & a polar low tracking south...

IMG_1397.thumb.PNG.6563b2ca3c92153773957b1a186ef1fa.PNG

Steve, get your phone on charge man....

At 210, the whole country is under -8 or -10 850's.  This is better than Sunday's run...incredible

gfs-1-210.png?18

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comet Enthusiast

comet

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

You almost could not draw it any better, and all just 8 - 9 days away. I know at that range it is still a long shot but it is also very plausible.

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