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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Not as much as you would think, we have unique orography in some regions so you get a lot of snow shadows depending on which direction its coming from, I live just south of High and Low Tatras so for example I get my best snow from southerly as there are no mountains/snow shadows in Hungary as its flat,so we need this synoptics like Gulf of Genoa low that travels eastwards towards black sea, otherwise northerly and north westerly is a killer as I have largest mountains in central Europe - Tatras in the way, so villages north of me get 60cm and I get 2cm, really frustrating. But a southerly or south westerly with imbeded surface cold is great as the temperatures are around 0C to -1C and huge snowflakes with 10-25cm almost guaranteed. I remember very little snow from a northerly with -15C uppers, the air is just too dry. When you in UK have high pressure and we get northerly plunge from Scandi lows its 100% sunny and very frosty. We also need frontal battleground for nationwide dumping, otherwise these mountain ranges create their borders themselves, almost like mini Alps, which are sunniest in south but wery snowy in north

Yes, just as i thought, frontal snowfalls your best chance apart from the obvious brutal Easterlies associated with high pressure over Scandinavia.

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, just as i thought, frontal snowfalls your best chance apart from the obvious brutal Easterlies associated with high pressure over Scandinavia.

Actually I did an analysis on the snowiest winters i remember here - 1995/96,2002/03,2005/06,2012/13, and as you can see the holy grail for us is that gulf of Genoa low with High Pressure centre between Norway and Iceland,under these synoptics all the snow would come up from southerly direction to us

RlWFBOYUng.png

Edited by jules216

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9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

For our winter nothing.

In the shorter term it cools the tropics and amplifies the MJO in theory. 

So shall we expect the hurricane activity to be suppressed for the remainder of the season?

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53 minutes ago, karyo said:

So shall we expect the hurricane activity to be suppressed for the remainder of the season?

Depends where the wave is most amplified I suppose.

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No signs of the SSW having any impact on this chart, looks like the cold all bottled up over Antartica.

image.thumb.png.3b6f08d1bd771ba0896ca177b658cf92.png

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We know how much the models struggle with our N. Hemisphere SSWs... so I don't hold out much hope for them resolving the outcome of the much, much rarer S. Hemisphere equivalent.

Not sure it's technically a SSW by wind stats yet though; wind still not to -10 m/s at 60*N. Then again, this definition may not be appropriate given the markedly different climatology there.

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Just a question from a dummy....could anyone answer?

Is the rarity of SSW events over the Southern Hemisphere due to the lack of landmass when compared with the Northern Hemisphere? MY understanding is that the PV over the south pole pretty much gets locked down and is far more intense than over the NH as there is less to effect it?

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12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just a question from a dummy....could anyone answer?

Is the rarity of SSW events over the Southern Hemisphere due to the lack of landmass when compared with the Northern Hemisphere? MY understanding is that the PV over the south pole pretty much gets locked down and is far more intense than over the NH as there is less to effect it?

Antartic Polar Vortex is more stable enviroment then Arctic which is influenced by warm waters from Gulf Stream that travel poleward and more suspect to Rossby wave braking situations that can induce warm air in to polar stratosphere, while thats not the case in circulation around south pole. 

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Good response by Jules.

Essentially, being a vast, consistently cold and frozen landmass entirely surrounded by gently varying oceans is a far better for your stability than being a smaller, inconsistently frozen ocean flanked on two sides by strongly, rapidly varying landmasses.

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7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

That's as near as you can get to a 3 month Bartlett.

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When it is said there have only been 2 previous Southern Hemisphere SSWs on record, how far back to the records go? 

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14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

You gota laugh!!!just last month it was going for a scandi high and northern blocking and now the complete opposite!just goes to show how fickle these long range forecasts are!!ah well id rather it show a bartlett now than in novemevber!!still plenty of time for change!!

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

When it is said there have only been 2 previous Southern Hemisphere SSWs on record, how far back to the records go? 

2 SSW's in the last 50 years i believe.

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

You gota laugh!!!just last month it was going for a scandi high and northern blocking and now the complete opposite!just goes to show how fickle these long range forecasts are!!ah well id rather it show a bartlett now than in novemevber!!still plenty of time for change!!

Probably goes to show how uncertain the forecasting is, given the initial data assimilated into the model from this run gives an entirely different result.

I wouldn't read much into it, clearly something has been picked up on that favours a mild atmospheric circulation pattern but how much can that change closer to the time?

If I recall it showed a very negative AO/NAO pattern in the build up to winters 2013/14 and 2018/19 so some busts there. Although for other winters the forecasts were good.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Pretty awful forecast, it's a good thing that i don't really put much stock in seasonal model forecasts.

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It's a shocking outlook for the winter ahead from that model. At face value youd have to surmise it's advocating one of the mildest winters on record. 

Not sure how much it can feasibly climb down from there, it would have to be some volte face!

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Last months jam(update)- mirrors the Lrf mod in question! .(previously)..

I await the update with a degree of uncertainty! ..

But I'm sure the goliath southern hem ssw ..WILL have an impact on modeling through out...-including_northern hemisphere exacting..

This is gonna be an interesting month or SO!!!!

temp2.glob.DJF2020.1aug2019 (1).gif

Edited by tight isobar

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14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Last months jam(update)- mirrors the Lrf mod in question! .(previously)..

I await the update with a degree of uncertainty! ..

But I'm sure the goliath southern hem ssw ..WILL have an impact on modeling through out...-including_northern hemisphere exacting..

This is gonna be an interesting month or SO!!!!

temp2.glob.DJF2020.1aug2019 (1).gif

Models (JMA) the same thing most years for the upcoming winter...and that is cool/cold for NW Europe as we get closer to winter it climbs down, getting tedious I'm afraid.

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5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

That is the most depressing seasonal anomally imaginable. Lets see where are we next month

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5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

News that really warms the cockles; so much so Sidney started a celebratory barby

696745101_sidney1.thumb.jpg.7a2d7214e48d77ea564d34f0595b46b2.jpg

 

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4 hours ago, jules216 said:

That is the most depressing seasonal anomally imaginable. Lets see where are we next month

Last years was brill, and it ended up a rubbish winter.

Obviously i would prefer it to show cold, but i don't give it much weight at this range anyway.

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Oh well, best to have low expectations to avoid another winter disappointment.

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