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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think the point is, that the weaker the polar stratosphere is now that it might take longer to deepen as we move through Autumn and into Winter there by potentially improving the probability of a colder start to Winter than normal.

We have seen those slow starts before, the vortex can remain weak for a couple of months and then quickly pick up speed in November. It may lead to a more blocked autumn but the way global temperatures are going (and shortage of ice) it is more likely to result in residual warmth than any notable cold. 

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13 hours ago, karyo said:

We have seen those slow starts before, the vortex can remain weak for a couple of months and then quickly pick up speed in November. It may lead to a more blocked autumn but the way global temperatures are going (and shortage of ice) it is more likely to result in residual warmth than any notable cold. 

Yes, sadly this was the case with the autumns 2016 and 2018 which led to forecasts for cold winters.   However, both the following winters were mild to very mild with little snow for many, although not all.

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37 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, sadly this was the case with the autumns 2016 and 2018 which led to forecasts for cold winters.   However, both the following winters were mild to very mild with little snow for many, although not all.

Last winter had a lot of mixed signs to be fair, people just got overexcited because of late winter 2018. Though we were unlucky with the SSW and how January worked out.

Sadly this year is no different with mixed signals although a little clearer with only the +PDO really against us.

The winter where we really lost out in my opinion was 14/15 which in my opinion was killed by the record +PDO.

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2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Last winter had a lot of mixed signs to be fair, people just got overexcited because of late winter 2018. Though we were unlucky with the SSW and how January worked out.

Sadly this year is no different with mixed signals although a little clearer with only the +PDO really against us.

The winter where we really lost out in my opinion was 14/15 which in my opinion was killed by the record +PDO.

The positive PDO is my biggest concern about the coming winter and feel this will scupper the chances of a colder one.  This is a shame especially with us being at solar minimum.    

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14 hours ago, Don said:

The positive PDO is my biggest concern about the coming winter and feel this will scupper the chances of a colder one.  This is a shame especially with us being at solar minimum.    

For another winter where we may have been very unlucky consider 1991/1992 (not a bad winter, CET was near average until Feb). ENSO/QBO/PDO state all very similar (close to solar maximum though and had a failed SSW in Jan) to 2009/2010.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/wind/u60n_10_1991_merra2.pdf

1079190084_1992unlucky.thumb.png.47226f3900fc98b7da279a9124042162.png1167003297_2010pic.thumb.png.92ebe1c56b58b8206ea45f94c9ce8b48.png

While 2010 parked the ridge over Greenland, in 1992 the ridge is instead over Canada and thus while the US sees a decent winter the UK sits under a ridge (i imagine cool and frosty). 

If we be a little optimistic and only look at ENSO (neutral likely) and QBO (likely neutral westerly or neutral easterly) then we are looking at 1981, 1991, 2007 (1981 also had a +PDO) being the closest matches since 1979.

possible.thumb.png.96dad7ea9bec2c73e91a8a2473115adc.png

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Was wondering will the sudden stratospheric warming in southern hemisphere have any knock on effect on autumn/winter circulation in northern hemisphere.Last two ocasions it happened were 2002 and 2010.H5 anomalies suggest blocked pattern in  NAO domain. 

yNU6s2p5dx.png

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5 hours ago, jules216 said:

Was wondering will the sudden stratospheric warming in southern hemisphere have any knock on effect on autumn/winter circulation in northern hemisphere.Last two ocasions it happened were 2002 and 2010.H5 anomalies suggest blocked pattern in  NAO domain. 

yNU6s2p5dx.png

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-331.54,-95.06,213/loc=52.232,-61.246

Oh yes, so there is! No idea about the effects on NH but I always like a good SSW graphic!! 

Screenshot_20190827-211335.png

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From what I understand there are no absolutely clear linkages between SSW’s in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, other than it does indicate, for now at least, some healthy levels of Ozone transport via the BDO

So an active BDO is a positive very early sign, but just as with any index at this range, that can very quickly change and does not necessarily dictate an active BDO season for the Northern Hemisphere winter

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35 minutes ago, snowking said:

From what I understand there are no absolutely clear linkages between SSW’s in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, other than it does indicate, for now at least, some healthy levels of Ozone transport via the BDO

So an active BDO is a positive very early sign, but just as with any index at this range, that can very quickly change and does not necessarily dictate an active BDO season for the Northern Hemisphere winter

Would possibly mean more effect on autumn patterns rather then winter, with BD circulation enhanced maybe it could induce more of an -QBO feeling to the atmosphere rather then +QBO although we are still in descending phase. Also some MJO kick as we could do with more of an active MJO 

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On 28/08/2019 at 13:05, knocker said:

 

I read somewhere it turned westerly on the 31st, breaking the record by a day.

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On 01/09/2019 at 22:23, Rich_Clements said:

I read somewhere it turned westerly on the 31st, breaking the record by a day.

Just eyeballing the chart, it looks like it:

u10serie.png?v=20190903

Ref: http://weatheriscool.com

 

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A look at the latest on the warming,that is some warming and what impacts would this have for the northern hemisphere if any?

pole10_sh.thumb.gif.2c7fba3e0cd20a0382ba5e6708470a30.gif

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7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

A look at the latest on the warming,that is some warming and what impacts would this have for the northern hemisphere if any?

pole10_sh.thumb.gif.2c7fba3e0cd20a0382ba5e6708470a30.gif

I asked Marco Petagna of UKMO, he didn't seem to think there was much of a teleconnection...

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9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

A look at the latest on the warming,that is some warming and what impacts would this have for the northern hemisphere if any?

pole10_sh.thumb.gif.2c7fba3e0cd20a0382ba5e6708470a30.gif

For our winter nothing.

In the shorter term it cools the tropics and amplifies the MJO in theory. 

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Impact or no impact but I would certainly take the outcome on NH winter following in from previous SSW in S.Hemisphere(2002,2010)

qdx6V8c7k4.png

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12 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Impact or no impact but I would certainly take the outcome on NH winter following in from previous SSW in S.Hemisphere(2002,2010)

qdx6V8c7k4.png

Looks good but those composites don't always tell the full story, only one blocked month out of the 6, although one of the strongest ones in history admittedly.

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks good but those composites don't always tell the full story, only one blocked month out of the 6, although one of the strongest ones in history admittedly.

Yes but also the biggest picture is, not related to UK only,that the last 2 winters below 1961-1990 average here in central Europe were 2002-03 and 2010-11. maybe coincidents, but still interesting, some of those months for UK perspective it missed the continental cold by very little, still better then zonal composites of likes 2013/14 🙂

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1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Yes but also the biggest picture is, not related to UK only,that the last 2 winters below 1961-1990 average here in central Europe were 2002-03 and 2010-11. maybe coincidents, but still interesting, some of those months for UK perspective it missed the continental cold by very little, still better then zonal composites of likes 2013/14 🙂

Yes true, some of those naughties winters were very close to being good.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes true, some of those naughties winters were very close to being good.

Yes, winters in early naughties were great here in Slovakia, actually 2005-06 was marginally colder then 2010-11 because of spectacular Jan-Feb 06. But 2002/03 was more then 1C below 1901-2000 average. Only noteworthy winter after was 2016/17 because Jan 17 was coldest in 30 years here. 

hurbanovo_zm.jpg

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1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Yes, winters in early naughties were great here in Slovakia, actually 2005-06 was marginally colder then 2010-11 because of spectacular Jan-Feb 06. But 2002/03 was more then 1C below 1901-2000 average. Only noteworthy winter after was 2016/17 because Jan 17 was coldest in 30 years here. 

hurbanovo_zm.jpg

Presuming that in Slovakia that you can get brilliant snowfalls without any drive from the stratosphere, with continuous moderate to heavy snow for hours and hours with huge flakes.

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Presuming that in Slovakia that you can get brilliant snowfalls without any drive from the stratosphere, with continuous moderate to heavy snow for hours and hours with huge flakes.

Indeed Feb  My mother in Law lives the east of Graz   just by the Slovenia   and i can quite honestly say  ive never seen snow like it    just a bog standard winter for them 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Presuming that in Slovakia that you can get brilliant snowfalls without any drive from the stratosphere, with continuous moderate to heavy snow for hours and hours with huge flakes.

Not as much as you would think, we have unique orography in some regions so you get a lot of snow shadows depending on which direction its coming from, I live just south of High and Low Tatras so for example I get my best snow from southerly as there are no mountains/snow shadows in Hungary as its flat,so we need this synoptics like Gulf of Genoa low that travels eastwards towards black sea, otherwise northerly and north westerly is a killer as I have largest mountains in central Europe - Tatras in the way, so villages north of me get 60cm and I get 2cm, really frustrating. But a southerly or south westerly with imbeded surface cold is great as the temperatures are around 0C to -1C and huge snowflakes with 10-25cm almost guaranteed. I remember very little snow from a northerly with -15C uppers, the air is just too dry. When you in UK have high pressure and we get northerly plunge from Scandi lows its 100% sunny and very frosty. We also need frontal battleground for nationwide dumping, otherwise these mountain ranges create their borders themselves, almost like mini Alps, which are sunniest in south but wery snowy in north

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