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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Ec 10 hpa day 10 has been headed slowly to the solution it shows this evening ..... different to gfs but more in line with what was showing at 7/5 hpa yesterday 

    1CEF0EA2-1A25-4C2D-B4BE-068ADF48EC57.thumb.jpeg.462f7d2e593a6c34092167805a6bc504.jpeg

     

    lower down, it’s not far from the gfs solution at day 10 

     

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    Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

    so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

    For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec 10 hpa day 10 has been headed slowly to the solution it shows this evening ..... different to gfs but more in line with what was showing at 7/5 hpa yesterday 

    1CEF0EA2-1A25-4C2D-B4BE-068ADF48EC57.thumb.jpeg.462f7d2e593a6c34092167805a6bc504.jpeg

     

    lower down, it’s not far from the gfs solution at day 10 

     

    Hmmmmmm, thoughts Blue? Canadian lobe looks stronger than previous?

    GFS at day 10!

    image.thumb.png.45ef99708a1bade14547dd3938c00802.png

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Fantastic news from Cohen and builds on what we have seen in ensemble means for the same timeframe.

    Winter is coming.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Hmmmmmm, thoughts Blue? Canadian lobe looks stronger than previous?

    GFS at day 10!

    image.thumb.png.45ef99708a1bade14547dd3938c00802.png

     

    Gfs manages to maintain the split heights throughout at 10hpa...

     My thoughts are that this split isn’t a standard kind of split .... is it bottom up or top down ? Still not convinced I know! And whilst spv at 30/50 hpa broadly translates to the tpv with approx a weeks lag, 10 hpa pattern and aboveremains pretty detatched from the middle layers and below re the arctic ridge ........ all fairly confusing ...........

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    The strat looks to be in a state of shock on gfs 18z.?

     

    Happy new year all.?

     

    NH_HGT_10mb_360.thumb.gif.ef1ecdd2dc892e14f81b555b6954f9b3.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The ec strat this morning shows a further variation .....seems it went too far with the ridge to Siberia ....now it is inline with the updated gfs output at 10hpa  - unusual to see such movement at 10hpa, run to run .......funnily enough looks more stable lower down .....I did comment how 1hpa looked inconsistent recently though that’s returned to its usual more sedate day on day changes recently 

    looks good to me moving forward ........... just need to get that broad pattern imprinted low down 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    21 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    A split on day 10 and a reversal of winds which seems to go on for some time. At 216h we see downwelling.

    ecmwf10f240.gif

    ecmwfzm_u_f216.gif

    Day 10 is overdone with the ridge axis judging by the new gfs and ec runs ........rotate that day 10 chart clockwise about 15/20 degrees

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
    21 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Thanks Stewart. You looked in on 33andrain yet? Your views would be interesting over there.

    Yet more delay - but I think we are all beginning to understand that any propagation this time around is going to slow, unlike the lightning quick response earlier this year. Is this wQBO related in your mind - given the QBO is westerly now probably down to around 50hpa? How closely does QBO shear at various levels relate to activity over the pole?

    And as a teleconnection junkie can I ask you to elaborate on what you mean by "pattern wants to go cold, but is prevented from doing so by the atmospheric field over the polar region....a clear cut signal for mid latitude highs". I've been expecting a GSDM driven move towards high lat blocking for around a week now, and been scratching my head as to why it hasn't occurred and why the models continue to sustain the limpet UK high. What do you mean by "atmospheric field" - never encountered this phrase before. Is this something to do with the magnetic field, and if so how can we read it, and how does it help conduct the teleconnective orchestra?

    wQBO extends down to just above 50hPa I think, but will be ‘footprinted easterly below that, so reduced shearing.

    The GSDM has to my eye been typically low amplitude (reduced tendency in AAM) in response to potential drivers through reduced equatoward eddy flux, but that should change in the coming 2 week period to allow for more extreme tendencies to develop.

    Polar field = all layers  1000hPa up to 1hPa, typically viewed as cross section

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

    wQBO extends down to just above 50hPa I think, but will be ‘footprinted easterly below that, so reduced shearing.

    The GSDM has to my eye been typically low amplitude (reduced tendency in AAM) in response to potential drivers through reduced equatoward eddy flux, but that should change in the coming 2 week period to allow for more extreme tendencies to develop.

    Polar field = all layers  1000hPa up to 1hPa, typically viewed as cross section

    Thanks Stewart and HNY. Time for me, therefore, to brush up on the impact of equatorward eddy flux.....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    17 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Gfs manages to maintain the split heights throughout at 10hpa...

     My thoughts are that this split isn’t a standard kind of split .... is it bottom up or top down ? Still not convinced I know! And whilst spv at 30/50 hpa broadly translates to the tpv with approx a weeks lag, 10 hpa pattern and aboveremains pretty detatched from the middle layers and below re the arctic ridge ........ all fairly confusing ...........

     

    In case you have missed earlier links to this cool website it gives a good view of what is happening with the vortex

    https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

    Time for things to start getting interesting in the trop within a week or 2 hopefully following this. Great graphic of the split from earthnull school.

    659017713_ScreenShot2019-01-01at16_33_43.thumb.png.6be691ec71fd8a8207bd93eaa1510d73.png

    The third lobe of the vortex can be seen over the pacific in the next screenshot, not as large as the Mother/Daughter vortices over Europe and the Atlantic but the little lad is still impressive non the less.

    576483762_ScreenShot2019-01-01at16_34_53.thumb.png.872d8d66b544b25263cd1485a1ed3105.png

    Note - 2 days down the line these images are forecast for.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    I've thoroughly enjoyed watching this develop from it's earliest suggestions back in October by the fantastic contributors on here, and when it started to show on the NWP from the earliest parts until now. Fascinating. Thank you all the fantastic contributors here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Easy to see the split taking place here at 10 Hpa, with full reversal showing too... 

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.27,86.88,205

    Screenshot_20190101-204647.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

    ecmwfzm_u_f120.gif

     

    Yesterday at day 9 today at day 5?

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

    ecmwfzm_u_f120.gif

     

    Yesterday at day 9 today at day 5?

    You need to work out how to get the correct attachment to show without clicking arhu!  Otherwise, peeps will be confused! 

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    You need to work out how to get the correct attachment to show without clicking arhu!  Otherwise, peeps will be confused! 

    Certainly confused me until I saw the date. !!!!☺

    Hopefully all the models will have data streaming in now which has the SSW and wind reversals evident. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

    ecmwfzm_u_f120.gif

     

    Yesterday at day 9 today at day 5?

    No it is isn't, you have to click it then different?

    Edited by northwestsnow
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