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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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Story is now one of both ECM and GFS managing a split but GFS taking about a week longer to achieve a sufficient separation of vortexes.

The 00z trop modelling is a strong reflection of this; ECM is looking ready for cross-polar height rises  as of day 10 while GFS has a rough displacement type pattern going on (some transfer of lowest heights toward Asia but not at all clean), with that model taking until D16 to make progress toward a split-vortex response.

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It’s annoying that you can’t scroll through any more unless you’re on a pc 

ec is split down to 50hpa now by day 10 .....

Even that's poorer on a PC now than it used to be, you used to be able to click forward so you could see the evolution, the click would just imprint the next image in exactly the same screen location as the previous one, its all jurky now and poor format.

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2 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Anyone know anywhere else to view up to date EC strat charts other than Berlin?

My iPad doesn’t display the charts properly, in that I can’t scroll down. It would be good at least to see the latest charts, as I look out of the window at the snow slowly being eaten away by the rain here in the Alps. 

Do you have an option to ask for the desktop view in your browser? That sort of fixes the problem 

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2 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

SSW by day 7/8?

 

ecmwf10f192.thumb.gif.cf3a7e23c38e90072621dbd3ec1aa248.giffluxes.thumb.gif.8479e3a6cceb28b8df92d2749a4d2648.gif

 

The EP flux chart looks interesting, looks like its heading towards poleward by the end of the run, this makes the pattern more likely to imprint lower down the atmosphere.

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5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

For Berlin charts they really have made navigation tricky on a mobile now.

Try this old link >>

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng

Thanks, thats the one i was talking about, much better.

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Quick whizz through before hitting the slopes in a minute  (mud appearing this morning lower down, eek) and comparing to those of a few days ago. All already mentioned but highlights that stood out for me...

Poleward flux forecasts are very few and far between. Will be interesting to see if it can hold.

zonal winds still looking good, albeit not quite as reversed as some previous forecasts.

Very high temps still being prog’ed at 10mb and 30mb. That is impressive to say the least.

Split heading down.

All very promising still.

 

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ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

MJO eastward propagation still trending larger. As far as I understand it, this will help to grow and prolong the vortex split by providing extra wave-2 input from the troposphere.

GEFS being slower is likely part of the reason why they and GFS are favouring a briefer, less impressive split event.

The later onset, though, has to be an issue with the modelling of the stratosphere. There's a lot riding on ECM's greater resolution being something that allows it to see the true path when GFS doesn't. Not sure how it compares with FV3 though... could it be that FV3 isn't being run with full model layers during the testing stages...? It's seemed seriously unimpressive to me in recent months with several false alarms for cold weather outbreaks of note and now this flailing around with how things unfold in the stratosphere.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Why does Judah cohen constantly ref GFS when EC is far superior?

EC is too expensive, I think they also have their own models use them but show images from gfs to illustrate 

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32 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

EC is too expensive, I think they also have their own models use them but show images from gfs to illustrate 

Yes, this. Please make the ECMWF, UKMO, and etc models as free, without restrictions, and easy to access as the GFS, and we would use them. 

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1 minute ago, Selliso said:

Eyes peeled at sunset for nacreous clouds?

Hopefully....but the forecasters are saying the wrong type clouds are in coming for the afternoon that will stop us from seeing them lovely colourful very high nacreous ones if there are any....but atm the skies here are clear, so you never know :santa-emoji:

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41 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hopefully....but the forecasters are saying the wrong type clouds are in coming for the afternoon that will stop us from seeing them lovely colourful very high nacreous ones if there are any....but atm the skies here are clear, so you never know :santa-emoji:

Fog just burning away here now, fingers crossed for some opalescent action!

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