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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Thanks Jules. That's quite intresting. Perhaps it's not a coincidence that the autumn forecast of weer.nl has more or less the same idea.

    On 18th of august weer.nl released their autumn forecast, based on world climate service (these guys make the seasonal forecasts for the meteogroup)

    https://www.worldclimateservice.com & https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc (they don't release their forecast at their website/ twitter).

    http://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2020/hersftverwachting-van-warm-naar-vroege-winter/

    In november zou dan de echte ommekeer moeten komen. Er is nu veel dat er op wijst dat het weerbeeld in ons deel van Europa in november geblokkeerd zou moeten raken, met hogedrukgebieden op de Oceaan die hun invloed tot over Groenland kunnen uitbreiden. Lagedrukgebieden worden in dat geval gedwongen een veel zuidelijkere koers te volgen. Daarmee zou het in het zuidwesten van Europa (Spanje en Portugal, maar ook delen van Frankrijk) een stuk wisselvalliger moeten worden. Tegelijkertijd zou ons deel van Europa in een regime van noordelijke tot noordoostelijke winder terechtkomen, met bijbehorende lagere temperaturen. Wat het voor de neerslag betekent, is lastig te zeggen. De aanloop aar de winter heeft wel wat overeenkomsten met die naar de winter van 2010.

    Google translation

    The real turnaround should then come in November. There is now much to suggest that the weather picture in our part of Europe should be blocked in November, with high-pressure areas on the ocean that could extend their influence beyond Greenland. In that case, low pressure areas are forced to follow a much more southerly course. This should make things a lot more changeable in the southwest of Europe (Spain and Portugal, but also parts of France). At the same time, our part of Europe would end up in a northerly to northeasterly wind regime, with associated lower temperatures. It is difficult to say what it means for precipitation. The run-up to winter does have some similarities with the run-up to the winter of 2010.

     

     

    I rate world climate services very high.Interesting to have independently come up with simillar ideas.Smart brains think alike 🙂 Only joking of course

    Edited by jules216
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Interesting that some forecasts are now going along the same lines as I've been hinting at for a couple of months now ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Interesting that some forecasts are now going along the same lines as I've been hinting at for a couple of months now ;)

    As long as Crewe and CS don't pinch my snow ❄️ I don't care .

    On a serious note the next 6-8 weeks will be interesting as the various background drivers come into focus.

    No super positive IOD this time round at least..

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    As long as Crewe and CS don't pinch my snow ❄️ I don't care .

    On a serious note the next 6-8 weeks will be interesting as the various background drivers come into focus.

    No super positive IOD this time round at least..

    No chance of that. Even a '47 or '63 would see only 5cm at best here 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    No chance of that. Even a '47 or '63 would see only 5cm at best here 

    Surely not?  I thought I used to live in a snow dome!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    26 minutes ago, Don said:

    Surely not?  I thought I used to live in a snow dome!

    09/10 saw a 5cm max here

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  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    57 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    09/10 saw a 5cm max here

    Jeez, perhaps I didn't live in a snow dome after all!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    09/10 saw a 5cm max here

    You’re not the only one Crewe. Down here in south Dorset 2009/10 was nothing to write home about snow wise at all.  We even had a a met office red warning that suggested a foot or more of snow was imminent and never saw a single flake fall. Just to rub salt into the wounds there was a satellite picture that showed a completely snow covered UK ( probably when you got your 5cm) with just one little green patch over central and southern Dorset.

    on the other hand Nov/Dec 2010 did make up for it big time in Dorset setting and breaking a great many records for temps, frosts and ice days snowfall etc.

    For my location give me another nov/Dec 2010 over a winter 2009/10 any day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Continued interesting signals...

    image.thumb.png.48ddc2b2c2e7ff006cfcbea5e532d6fd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    We see interesting signals every year but I'm sure our 6 month Autumn will start in October and run right through to the end of March as per usual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    37 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    We see interesting signals every year but I'm sure our 6 month Autumn will start in October and run right through to the end of March as per usual.

    Last yr though there weren't any interesting signals at all. Nearly every model predicted a mild winter and that was indeed the case. The yr before there were signs of a cold winter on some of the models but that didn't happen of course.  Still I'd rather see good signals then none at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I’ve resisted the concept in the past but there is little doubting the correlation between strong signals / seasonal models pointing towards mild equates ultimately to mild. Whilst signals pointing largely to cold have less chance of being right, but we seem to need it in order to have virtually any hope.

    The latter can easily be explained by the climatic norm of our neck of the woods being more mild and zonal.

    I suppose sooner rather than later the ever changing climate will throw in an unforeseen curveball at some point on the former.

    One noticeable trait of the recent decade of winters has been the constant tease in late Autumn which has promised so much but very rarely delivered. Maybe this year?

    The QBO, whatever it ends up doing, is probably not going to have the direct effect the IOD going negative has though. Great news indeed. 

    Edited by s4lancia
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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Continued interesting signals...

    image.thumb.png.48ddc2b2c2e7ff006cfcbea5e532d6fd.png

    Come january the oranges shall be where the blues are and the blues shall be where the oranges are!!🤣you just know thats whats goin to happen!!typical!

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    @CreweCold I like the look of the most recent CFS monthly charts myself for early winter ideas. Now it may not mean anything(CFS)also Cansip update will come out tomorrow and also Glosea and ECMWF seasonals withing next week or so. Would be interesting weather the positive teleconnections can overwrite signals of perhaps poor SST and recent NAO trends. 

    december.png

    november.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    I remember back to the 97-08 period, one devoid of any lengthy significant cold in winter other than a few brief spells, 2005-06 came close but didn't deliver. 2008-2009 came out of nowhere though, whilst not especially severe it brought alot of cold weather, a wake up call. Remember going into winter 08-09 thinking another mild winter beckons... something substantively colder will pop out of the bag at some stage. There was something about the late Nov 08 period that made me think perhaps the winter may be different though.. 

    Edited by damianslaw
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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Continued interesting signals...

    image.thumb.png.48ddc2b2c2e7ff006cfcbea5e532d6fd.png

    Thanks for posting this Crewe. Do you have the chart for December? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

    Thanks for posting this Crewe. Do you have the chart for December? 

    Screenshot_20200831-173808_Chrome.thumb.jpg.c96774afcc67903fd1ed53a7832c3089.jpg

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  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Apart from that great big red blob just off the coast of the US again

    It doesn't have to matter so much if you get the C Canadian trough in a favourable position as that will not preclude N Atlantic ridging. 

    It would require just the right amount of amplification for us to benefit, however.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Screenshot_20200831-173808_Chrome.thumb.jpg.c96774afcc67903fd1ed53a7832c3089.jpg

    Many thanks for that Crewe. That isn't too shabby either. I've seen much worse December anomaly charts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Many thanks for that Crewe. That isn't too shabby either. I've seen much worse December anomaly charts. 

    And you will see them again, blizzard81... as soon as we reach December!:oldlaugh:

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  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    And you will see them again, blizzard81... as soon as we reach December!:oldlaugh:

    🤣🤣

    We have to remember we were in a much worse position with the seasonals this time last year. They all picked up the rampant vortex pretty well from quite a distance.

    This year we are not seeing the same type of hyper vortex modelled so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    And you will see them again, blizzard81... as soon as we reach December!:oldlaugh:

    Ha well bitter experience says we certainly can't rule that out 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    🤣🤣

    We have to remember we were in a much worse position with the seasonals this time last year. They all picked up the rampant vortex pretty well from quite a distance.

    This year we are not seeing the same type of hyper vortex modelled so far.

    They maybe reacted to the SSW in the southern hemisphere and the QBO disruption. They had previous experience of what happened with the 2015/2016 disruption event. That year had a rampant vortex too which saw little disruption until it was obliterated in March

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