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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    On 21/06/2020 at 12:52, joggs said:

    We can still have a cracking winter with a W QBO. Eg,cold and snow.

    Just less likely.

    Absolutely.  However, it seems we require more and more to go our way these days to get a decent winter for cold.

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    Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

    so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

    For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    WWW.ESSOAR.ORG

    I'm planning to read this in more detail as soon as I can, but from the abstract it suggest that the rare S. Hemisphere SSW of Sep 2019 is responsible for the disruption to the easterly QBO descent. Whether the current unusually broad reach of the austral polar vortex is in any way related, I can only imagine.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Have read in more detail now.

    The proposal is that the SH SSW displaced the austral winter polar vortex toward S. America, where it caused unusual planetary and then synoptic-scale wave activity which imparted westerly momentum to the equatorial stratosphere, so disrupting the QBO cycle. Considering the lack of disruption to the boreal (N. Hem) winter polar vortex last winter, I can't see good reason to dispute this assessment.

    This differs to the 2015-16 disruption, which was tropically driven, relating to the extreme El Nino event driving unusual wave behaviour.


    Interestingly, the paper also discusses a link to climate change. Observations have shown a weakening of the QBO amplitude in the tropical lowermost stratosphere and there's similar weakening in many model projections.

    It's uncertain due to the short observation set (28 full cycles since 1957) and large natural variability, but there's a possibility that this loss of amplitude makes the QBO more susceptible to cycle disruption.

    If so, this will make QBO forecasting more of a challenge, requiring factoring in of extratropical processes to pick up on events such as the 2019-20 one, which did have some harbingers a few months in advance of the anomalous westerly layer emerging.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Seems the CFS is, even at this far out range, going for a SSW come December.

    It's churning out absolutely bonkers charts at the moment.

    Here's the December mean chart- tell tale sign of SSW prediction is the oranges all across the Arctic locale

    image.thumb.png.b1ee6efc4b277fa6a8fe4a2c4f6b3aac.png

    Secondly, here is one of the most bonkers charts I've seen from an individual run of the model

    image.thumb.png.1e1ba1f5ea5ab8b00a0d228825205ba0.png

    Black hole cold anomaly

    Accompanying pressure anomaly-

    image.thumb.png.96a993fb82f8cbc06e55502464918da9.png

    Obviously it means little at this range but I do personally believe we've got a very 'interesting' winter coming up.

     

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Seems the CFS is, even at this far out range, going for a SSW come December.

    It's churning out absolutely bonkers charts at the moment.

    Here's the December mean chart- tell tale sign of SSW prediction is the oranges all across the Arctic locale

    image.thumb.png.b1ee6efc4b277fa6a8fe4a2c4f6b3aac.png

    Secondly, here is one of the most bonkers charts I've seen from an individual run of the model

    image.thumb.png.1e1ba1f5ea5ab8b00a0d228825205ba0.png

    Black hole cold anomaly

    Accompanying pressure anomaly-

    image.thumb.png.96a993fb82f8cbc06e55502464918da9.png

    Obviously it means little at this range but I do personally believe we've got a very 'interesting' winter coming up.

     

    Interesting @CreweCold. Not much more to say at this range as it’s just wild speculation, but it’ll do well to be as bad as winter 2019/2020. Just look at that blue line, pretty much miles above average from  mid December until May. Truly awful.F982BC77-37F1-4DF4-92B9-BDED42460AF3.thumb.png.d35d35b9ca3049d8bc74325d5a52b4ae.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    On 25/06/2020 at 00:24, CreweCold said:

    Seems the CFS is, even at this far out range, going for a SSW come December.

    It's churning out absolutely bonkers charts at the moment.

    Here's the December mean chart- tell tale sign of SSW prediction is the oranges all across the Arctic locale

    Obviously it means little at this range but I do personally believe we've got a very 'interesting' winter coming up.

     

    My main concerns for the coming winter at this very early stage are the potential awol QBO and the warm SST's in the north east Pacific.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    The strange QBO situation still continues as the NASA Singapore site shows once again today as they have yet again altered their QBO status from Westerly back to West Descending Phase once more as shown

    qbo_phase_plot.thumb.png.e50c775286cc0f6dbe7f9c40ba285de7.png

    However there may be a small sign that the EQBO is trying to reform when I took this snapshot of 10hpa winds today

    1874069788_UntitledGlobe.thumb.jpg.446e2dddf83cd6af53249c8641bf08b9.jpg

    Within that circled region a small zone of easterly winds has appeared and is the first easterlies at 10hpa for a while now. Will this area expand and end up equator wide, we shall see

    2074872227_QBO1.thumb.jpg.90604f1c9861728eee0323549ada5076.jpg

    This could be backed up by what can be seen on the above image. Although it looks like there has been a standard EQBO when you can clearly see the easterly winds within the two orange lines this image isn't high resolution enough to see what has really happened. Notice the westerlies are weakening again at 3hpa. This upper region looks like it will be going back easterly again soon but will they get below 10hpa

    A more detailed version of the above is shown below

    5601266_QBO4.thumb.jpg.3a7325cfe1a33acfb218715593dfe4c0.jpg

    This is a daily version of the above and shows how quickly westerlies have taken over in the 30hpa to 3hpa region but although more detailed it is still not showing the full picture. The clear 3hpa weakening is also visible on this chart too

    1072375729_QBO3.thumb.jpg.5acca917a4d70c60c6e3a21fb675c959.jpg

    This chart focuses more on the 10 to 300 hpa region and shows up more of what is actually happening. The E shows that we have had an official easterly phase but not a normal one. This lower resolution chart clearly shows the four different regions of QBO we currently have and how confusing all this looks

    The more detailed version is below with daily readings

    751850417_QBO2.thumb.jpg.1c30b19b971076e752eb7982fbaeae6b.jpg

    1 - The new WQBO has clearly descended into the 10hpa region but it looks rather ragged and weak and sometimes bits and pieces of easterlies are visible within this region and in the last week or two has failed to descend any further and in fact looks to have pulled back upwards slightly too

    2 - A region of weak easterlies has managed to hang on in the 15 to 20 hpa region despite everything that has happened in the last few months and if anything this region looks to be slowly expanding, especially downwards. It would appear this area has got slightly stronger recently too. Maybe as a result of the weakening easterlies further down

    3 - The 30hpa westerlies have clung on with determination ever since the last WQBO "finished" as such and a couple of weeks ago looked to be getting their act together and started to strengthen again but in the last week they have persisted but look to have got a bit weaker again. Is this a good sign the EQBO is going to come roaring back once again. Could what has happened result in a failure of the next WQBO instead. This region of westerlies is clearly stealing some of the momentum needed for those higher up to strengthen and descend and if the 10hpa region does switch easterly again then we could end up seeing a reset to east descending phase rather than a failure and return to the west phase again

    4 - The 40 to 100 hpa region has been dominated by easterlies for a while now and this region is the main reason for the strange situation we have right now. The good news for the EQBO is that this region appears to be descending and weakening now, allowing the westerlies above to now descend too. The bad news for the EQBO is as long as this region still persists then this increases the chance of an EQBO failure rather than a reset to east descending phase once more.

    Finally we have the chart showing where we are at on the QBO phase

    1463168155_QBO5.thumb.jpg.e02802fdb130353557cc4c8ef693b9e0.jpg

    It is clear how we have taken a rather strange route across this chart after December 2019 although no where near as bad as 2016 which is the grey line that cuts across the chart on the opposite side between my two arrows. Now which way will things go after the June 2020 plot on this chart.

    1 - The WQBO returns after our very weak almost failed EQBO and we generally follow the direction of the red arrow until we are back to full strength or near full strength WQBO again or we could see a weakened version and curve slightly more to the left of the red arrow but still get a WQBO again. This would be the worse outcome overall and would be a near repeat of 2016 again

    2 - We see a failure of the next WQBO which although is unlikely cannot be ruled out based on the strange way the QBO is behaving at the moment and we end up cutting through the middle of the chart and see a reset to roughly where we was at in December 2019 with the QBO before it then continues round the chart where most normal EQBO's go. This is an outcome I would rather see and would make up for what happened in 2016 rather than seeing another repeat of the EQBO failure of that year.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent
    4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Update number 4 for my QBO analysis and recent trends once again

    I shall start with the QBO phase plot like I usually do which is still showing the strange pattern but less of a strange one than it was at least

    qbo_phase_plot.thumb.png.e3753b3a9bb3b08c4da31785a16f513b.png

    This is showing 3 main areas of QBO which it has to be said can happen sometimes but the only real strange part here is just how shallow the westerly region is on the latest plot. 30hpa has a raging westerly today touching 25 m/s which is very fast for a westerly. Maybe this is in compensation for the easterlies at all other levels. As before 10hpa westerlies appear to continue to weaken as easterlies are becoming more common at this height on these plot charts.

    This could be backed up by these three snapshots of the equatorial regions of the Earth at 10 hpa from today

    2065720668_EqAtlantic.thumb.jpg.4d5dcfb0b0861f1f097bbc98da35d436.jpgAtlantic Region with arrows showing general wind direction or an X where it is virtually still

    575266942_EqPacific.thumb.jpg.6372e780e4afe7e4427feadc0e525cec.jpgPacific Region with same arrows and X's as above

    1419183126_EqIndian.thumb.jpg.c4b664e6f799f5aa8ddaa1407f5124fe.jpgIndian Ocean Region with same arrows and X's

    What you probably saw, especially with the Pacific and even more so the Indian Ocean regions was the area of easterly winds. That area of easterlies has been expanding recently and is slowly speeding up too. Is this a sign the EQBO is returning to 10hpa?

    Now time for the usual focus on what has taken place within the different levels of the atmosphere, starting with 10 hpa to 100 hpa

    qbo1.thumb.jpg.cbe11864ee5261b09b2efdfd2393e314.jpg

    As with the previous updates the strange situation with 4 general layers of QBO continues

    1 - The 10 hpa region continues to look very ragged and appears to have shifted further towards a change to EQBO. This can be backed up by the developing easterlies above Indonesia and Singapore especially at 10 hpa

    2 - Easterlies continue in the region between 15 hpa and 20 hpa but as can be seen with daily variations in strength and occasional westerly days appear at times

    3 - 30 hpa continues to see a dominance of the westerly QBO and still it refuses to move from this area. Maybe the changes above will help to get this region descending down to the lower stratosphere

    4 - Although 40 hpa seems to have now in general lost the easterly anomaly 50 hpa to 100 hpa continue to see general easterlies persisting although still weakening overall. This should eventually allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to finally descend.

    Time for the deeper atmospheric view of the QBO and some interesting developments have taken place on this chart too

    qbo2.thumb.jpg.8dcfce9a86f72669d680a68111176c5b.jpg

    1 - The first big area of note is how much the easterly QBO has descended between 3 hpa and 7 hpa in just the last few days since my last update. The last update only showed a tiny pale green mark in the corner. Now there's a whole zone of weak easterlies at all of these levels. This is really getting a move on but then looking at the rest of the chart at these high levels it seems the QBO does change very quickly above 10 hpa.

    2 - The second region of note is what is happening between 10 hpa and 20 hpa. Notice how the weakest westerly colour is still expanding and has weakened enough to reveal the couple of weak easterly patches in the middle of this region. Maybe this easterly region that doesn't show up at this resolution as well as the one descending down from above will eventually merge into a new EQBO, resulting in a failure of the WQBO instead of the EQBO

    3 - Overall this chart shows that the easterly anomaly has continued to weaken and westerlies are descending down to below 40 hpa on average now. For the sake of a possible return of the EQBO this process needs to continue to allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to descend

    4a and 4b - Westerlies look to be becoming ever more dominant at 30 hpa and a clear strengthening is seen on this chart, so much so that the average wind speed is now comparable with normal WQBO winds from the last WQBO. I don't know what effect this will have on the atmosphere since the WQBO layer is so shallow and with easterlies below it too with a much deeper layer.

    Next I have a new chart to show you, or should I say a part of the QBO table of data from NOAA

    qbo4.thumb.jpg.2232d4b0a5e2ce174fafed6acf6f7c19.jpg

    This focuses on 30 hpa and why they consider this level of the atmosphere most important to determine the QBO is unknown to me. The red box clearly shows the first recorded QBO disruption event when the 2016 EQBO failed and returned into another year of westerlies. The orange box shows the most recent QBO figures showing the slowdown from the peak of the last WQBO into the period of weak EQBO before the slow weakening back towards westerlies again. Now what figure will be in the green box for July. Based on charts throughout this update I can imagine the number will be positive again but how positive?

    Next I will show both the QBO plot chart again as well as the monthly QBO plots showing all QBO phases based on stage within the cycle

    qbo_phase_plot.thumb.png.e3753b3a9bb3b08c4da31785a16f513b.pngqbo3.thumb.jpg.902fb10582b6f4227713d4bda4bd9068.jpg

    I've decided to make a prediction as to where I think July 2020 is going to feature on the right hand chart. I feel July is a weakened version of the westerlies plot graph in the top right corner near the word westerlies with weak easterlies both at the top and bottom so I feel July will be somewhere within the red circle with 07 in the middle of it as a weak westerly QBO.

    As for August 2020 with some interesting recent developments with increasing signs of easterlies returning then I feel this WQBO is going to be a very short one like the last EQBO and also weak too like it and then we will possibly power up into a more normal EQBO after this strange QBO event we have had in recent months.

    Another thing that backs up the building of easterlies from 20 hpa upwards is what is showing on the atmospheric charts I showed last time

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.c15a8a63beede4487771f021df6e9dfc.jpg

    Focus on all the areas showing within the green circles I have drawn over these charts. Notice the increasing prevalence of the pale blue weak easterly regions taking over close to the equator combined with the weakening of westerlies between 3 hpa and 10 hpa. Looks like the EQBO could be building back up again ready to start a new EQBO cycle off again.

    Maybe there is hope that the EQBO wasn't killed off after all and in fact it could be the WQBO that should have started to descend from 10 hpa at around this point of the year that will fail instead.

    Hi. What's your thoughts on the upcoming winter regarding the QBO?

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    3 hours ago, Due South said:

    Hi. What's your thoughts on the upcoming winter regarding the QBO?

    I imagine it depends on whether the EQBO fails or reforms. We have the possible weak La Nina, low solar activity and surely a chance of a weaker polar vortex than that beast vortex of doom from winter 2019/20. Also it looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole is heading negative this winter instead of positive like it was last winter. With the possibility of an Atlantic tripole too then we have many factors in our favour already. What we don't need is something to go against us with a failed EQBO and a fully formed WQBO for this winter as no doubt knowing our luck in the UK the WQBO would override all of the other good signals. The main thing that is currently against us is the warm NE Pacific that refuses to do one. At least if we see the EQBO reform then this could help get us a colder winter. If you like mild winters then pray for an EQBO failure and a return of the WQBO.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Evening - 

    A very poor update on the QBO if your looking for an EQBO phase driven winter. 

    As it stands the cyclical EQBO phase for 2020 has failed with us officially recording a month now as WQBO at 30 HPA. 

    The failure isnt as spectacular as 2015-16 where the Easterly downwelling stopped at about 12HPA > 2020 has seen weak easterlies down past 30HPA, however similar to 15/16 the Westerlies have quickly returned across all levels.

    CACB6049-E847-4351-95D5-3C608BFCD5A1.thumb.jpeg.9282fc8d807b3524a9a96f8071081c2d.jpeg2C23D805-2566-4DA7-A25B-071E0AEABD1A.thumb.jpeg.4cec8357207b33dfe50f83a0be8f4c2b.jpeg

    The westerlies have expanded & now cover 10HPA all the way down to 60HPA :(.

    Based on current projections August will come in around +3 > +5.

    The only thing to cling on to is the downwelling neutrals from 3HPA

    35D20AF5-42E4-4E47-A9E2-7617C747EA71.thumb.jpeg.e1feba8c313f3eb803b09bfddaac8921.jpeg

    Will review that at the start of Sept...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    12 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    Evening - 

    A very poor update on the QBO if your looking for an EQBO phase driven winter. 

    As it stands the cyclical EQBO phase for 2020 has failed with us officially recording a month now as WQBO at 30 HPA. 

    The failure isnt as spectacular as 2015-16 where the Easterly downwelling stopped at about 12HPA > 2020 has seen weak easterlies down past 30HPA, however similar to 15/16 the Westerlies have quickly returned across all levels.

    CACB6049-E847-4351-95D5-3C608BFCD5A1.thumb.jpeg.9282fc8d807b3524a9a96f8071081c2d.jpeg2C23D805-2566-4DA7-A25B-071E0AEABD1A.thumb.jpeg.4cec8357207b33dfe50f83a0be8f4c2b.jpeg

    The westerlies have expanded & now cover 10HPA all the way down to 60HPA :(.

    Based on current projections August will come in around +3 > +5.

    The only thing to cling on to is the downwelling neutrals from 3HPA

    35D20AF5-42E4-4E47-A9E2-7617C747EA71.thumb.jpeg.e1feba8c313f3eb803b09bfddaac8921.jpeg

    Will review that at the start of Sept...

    Oh dear, more bad news.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    15 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    at 30 hPa the QBO is + 10 m/s (!) (equator). Surrounded by a blow (negative) sea. 

    MwTAPDe.png

    The thing we can hold hope in for the EQBO is the fact that the weak westerlies in the 2 to 10 hpa region have in general weakened in the last few weeks. The main problem is how much that easterly anomaly wants to stick around between 60 and 100 hpa

    My prediction as to where we would be on the QBO chart for July 2020 wasn't that far out either but rather annoyingly we ended up close to the right of my circle rather than near the left of it

    Predictionqbo3.jpg.53fd6e0eecb5344a5d177c4835101f38.thumb.jpg.5e9cd5c859c0aa35ecef3b2d6223f064.jpg

    Actual recordingqbo3.thumb.jpg.21602311efc27fc379027ea0858ae8bc.jpg

    Not so good news if you want the EQBO to win out. Looks more like the line will continue upwards towards a full blown WQBO before the end of the year and will fit my bad news theory from earlier on in my updates

    1007177524_QBO5.thumb.jpg.ebcd7dae2caadb8af8b7ae9ac1641f61.jpg

    I was hoping more for route 2 on this chart but it looks like the dreaded route 1 is winning out.

    The only real hope that the EQBO is trying to fight back is that another renewed easterly wind burst has formed above the Pacific at 10 hpa again like the one that was taking place at my last update

    Untitled2.thumb.jpg.ca5725c9803f2f5dad158c9db29f9591.jpgA nice zone of easterlies is now forming above the Pacific once again

    This also is matched by another zone above the Indian Ocean where a weaker zone of neutral to weak easterlies is also present

    Untitled3.thumb.jpg.f9dce7e4dcbbc9b3187253fb6a4f4de9.jpg

    Is this a sign that the down welling of the neutral to easterlies above 10 hpa will soon be showing itself at this height. Hope to see some resolution before the autumn starts but I hold little hope of this

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    19 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34

    July QBO 0.34.
    Thanks SqueakheartLW for your updates. 

    Weakest and shortest EQBO on record. Only 6 months and peaking at a rather pathetic -5.03. At least we managed to get an EQBO this time unlike in 2016 when the numbers never went negative. Also I think that 2.51 should be -2.51

    2020                Lowest figure = -5.03 in April 2020

    Jan     Feb      Mar     Apr      May     Jun     Jul

    -2.51   -3.20   -4.36   -5.03   -4.86   -2.78   +0.34

    2016                Lowest figure = +0.64 in April 2016

    Jan     Feb      Mar     Apr      May     Jun     Jul

    +9.34 +6.77   +3.16  +0.64   +2.37   +3.86  +6.25

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Another kick in the teeth for those of us hoping for a colder winter!  Good news for the mild weather lovers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Polar Bears in Doncaster said:

    More chaos to the science of weather forecasting!

    It ain’t gonna get any easier!

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    I wouldn't write of this winter just because of this QBO anomaly again. I am in the @CreweCold camp and think we are in for a good winter. We have tracking quite close to my analog years this summer of which the best are 1970,1995 and 2005. Current ACE in Atlantic and number of TS is akin to a blend of 1995 and 2005 so far and perhaps atmosphere might remember this in few months time and we will achieve at least some blocking to the north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, jules216 said:

    I wouldn't write of this winter just because of this QBO anomaly again. I am in the @CreweCold camp and think we are in for a good winter. We have tracking quite close to my analog years this summer of which the best are 1970,1995 and 2005. Current ACE in Atlantic and number of TS is akin to a blend of 1995 and 2005 so far and perhaps atmosphere might remember this in few months time and we will achieve at least some blocking to the north.

    I understand what you’re saying but my concern is that the QBO failure will throw a spanner in the works.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    To be honest, I would treat the QBO as one of those teleconnections we cannot rely upon for longer range weather forecasting for this year. Given the bizarre nature of it so far in 2020 we don't really have any analogous years to compare it to, with the overall makeup of the tropical stratosphere seemingly different even from our last failed eQBO. So whilst it will have some sort of impact, it's pretty near impossible to predict what this impact might be for the seasons ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    34 minutes ago, snowking said:

    To be honest, I would treat the QBO as one of those teleconnections we cannot rely upon for longer range weather forecasting for this year. Given the bizarre nature of it so far in 2020 we don't really have any analogous years to compare it to, with the overall makeup of the tropical stratosphere seemingly different even from our last failed eQBO. So whilst it will have some sort of impact, it's pretty near impossible to predict what this impact might be for the seasons ahead.

    Who would want to be a long range forecaster now?!

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