Jump to content
Paul

Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

Recommended Posts

No SSW on the mean today however 5 ensembles do produce a SSW by the 10th. 

spacer.png

spacer.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

No SSW on the mean today however 5 ensembles do produce a SSW by the 10th. 

spacer.png

spacer.png

I'll take CMC (GEM) ensemble number 4!

image.thumb.jpg.ddef40affccf152d5d1388e704032902.jpg

The GFS op seems to have taken a step back over the last day or so, looks to me as if the quick route of a split has disappeared from this model, leaving a further warming leading to a displacement in FI, 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.b94df9c75c790c559a26aa8a7110e595.jpg

Split still there in the ensembles though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Amount of splits up to 15 compared to 9 yesterday ens_nh-vortells_010hPa_20200127_f384.thumb.png.610a586572db4795bd36f2e03728388a.png

15 out of how many KW?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

15 out of how many KW?

64 but I was purely highlighting the fact that it was an improvement compared to yesterdays 😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

64 but I was purely highlighting the fact that it was an improvement compared to yesterdays 😀

As long as it keeps improving! 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

I am not “hanging on the word” of any meteorologist (unfair statement if aimed at me) given the fluidity of the science of weather, I was simply observing a stated possible outcome. 

Wasn't aimed at you, apologies if it appears that way, just generally an observation of some knee-jerk reactions to pro met tweets over the years and last few days with the SSW, as if their word is the likely outcome. I agree with you, westerlies is a possible outcome still, particularly as the models appear to be backing away from a SSW ... for now and we're left with a restrengthening SPV. Though the warming is still on and a displacement of the SPV may still work in our favour. 

Edited by Nick F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Wasn't aimed at you, apologies if it appears that way, just generally an observation of some knee-jerk reactions to pro met tweets over the years and last few days with the SSW, as if their word is the likely outcome. I agree with you, westerlies is a possible outcome still, particularly as the models appear to be backing away from a SSW ... for now and we're left with a restrengthening SPV. Though the warming is still on and a displacement of the SPV may still work in our favour. 

Thanks Nick 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Wasn't aimed at you, apologies if it appears that way, just generally an observation of some knee-jerk reactions to pro met tweets over the years and last few days with the SSW, as if their word is the likely outcome. I agree with you, westerlies is a possible outcome still, particularly as the models appear to be backing away from a SSW ... for now and we're left with a restrengthening SPV. Though the warming is still on and a displacement of the SPV may still work in our favour. 

I reckon if we nuked the SPV now, it would remain intact! 😱

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Don said:

I reckon if we nuked the SPV now, it would remain intact! 😱

Probably going to have to take a second warming later in Feb to do more meaningful damage than what is now currently being shown by the models. The SPV won't give in easily this winter.

Edited by Nick F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The SPV won't give in easily this winter.

Too right it won't, it means business this year!

Edited by Don

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

a thriller week.... will there be a ssw or splt soon?

 

image.thumb.png.709dc987b8fe9bf22df5b8ee5af6216f.pngimage.thumb.png.fa4e56466bc4a8cd94ce7daf539f1383.pngimage.thumb.png.43536cdc5edc604491cd04f8b9eae3c3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

a thriller week.... will there be a ssw or splt soon?

 

image.thumb.png.709dc987b8fe9bf22df5b8ee5af6216f.pngimage.thumb.png.fa4e56466bc4a8cd94ce7daf539f1383.pngimage.thumb.png.43536cdc5edc604491cd04f8b9eae3c3.png

Doubt it. 

There's going to be a warming but a full reversal looks unlikely, I think the best we can hope for is u-wind strength to be a little bit below average for the time of year. What impacts (if any) that has on overall weather patterns remains to be seen. 

The vortex has been a worthy opponent this winter & it seems even a warming isn't going to worry it too much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Dennis said:

a thriller week.... will there be a ssw or splt soon?

 

image.thumb.png.709dc987b8fe9bf22df5b8ee5af6216f.pngimage.thumb.png.fa4e56466bc4a8cd94ce7daf539f1383.pngimage.thumb.png.43536cdc5edc604491cd04f8b9eae3c3.png

Your middle chart would indicate not. A brief drop of zonal winds to average.

At least with average, we get might more a shot at brief cold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

npst30.png npst30.png


Pretty sure there wasn't a split being modelled at 30 hPa before today. 00z only very briefly managed it, 06z taking it a fair bit further.

Beginning 10 days from now - it might have some validity.

Still the issue with it not being a 'true split' though; no cross-polar bridge of anomalously warm temps and high heights, for which an influx on the Atlantic side is needed.

Odds are, a split as shown would lead to some hair loss over pesky troughs NE Canada - Greenland tending to flatten mid-Atlantic ridge efforts. A little room for a Scandinavian high perhaps, but not great... and too much uncertainty to sensibly explore such details anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Dennis said:

a thriller week.... will there be a ssw or splt soon?

 

image.thumb.png.709dc987b8fe9bf22df5b8ee5af6216f.pngimage.thumb.png.fa4e56466bc4a8cd94ce7daf539f1383.pngimage.thumb.png.43536cdc5edc604491cd04f8b9eae3c3.png

In short - no. Ensemble members too aggressive as usual.

image.thumb.png.f22de111fa2b760d75f4c5a443748f3e.png

As the weak/reversal members start to get flushed out, we are left pretty much where we were - a weakened vortex from the very strong one we've seen most of winter, but still around normal.

image.thumb.png.4caf3a69d5ae8bdd7bfd39ff07146108.png

There's always next year.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is still showing the SPV getting moved around the ring by the warming, but  such is its strength this year it largely stands firm. Can a secondary warming land a knockout blow......

 

1DB1F559-8FDA-4A44-82D6-5998695604B0.png

3AE9236C-C5D6-412C-AF3C-018738E78FDD.png

D6C9EF86-1B74-4ACF-B47D-8B165445488E.png

CF668218-ADFF-4DA4-89DD-B8026A154401.png

85EA2EAA-14C4-4185-84FF-122FD7E9C236.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

In short - no. Ensemble members too aggressive as usual.

image.thumb.png.f22de111fa2b760d75f4c5a443748f3e.png

As the weak/reversal members start to get flushed out, we are left pretty much where we were - a weakened vortex from the very strong one we've seen most of winter, but still around normal.

image.thumb.png.4caf3a69d5ae8bdd7bfd39ff07146108.png

There's always next year.

 

I'd grown so tiresome of hearing that phrase as a Liverpool fan, but hopefully this year will be the one 🤔

ByxuuB4IQAAZacj.thumb.jpg.37e1b4ddb44f6574de63488c171f1c2c.jpg

 

Edited by D.V.R

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been sustained warmth in the stratosphere and some extra warmth to come but even the models are sniffing around and seem to be responding to something.

If the vortex is on the ropes eventually there be an opportunity.

the glosea model was mentioned a little while ago and that had the possibility of a stratosphere warming.

so far and about a week or two before the other models.

So worth a mention I thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel a good view of the situation is that the forcing toward relentlessly mobile weather patterns is relaxing toward or perhaps a little below average during 1st half Feb.

This being thanks to that big MJO wave which, while it didn’t make it far enough east across the Pacific to initiate HLB, did get far enough to seriously soup-up mid-latitude blocking (to record strength across the UK for example). 

With that comes huge energy transfer into major mountain ranges, with wave deflection upward to assault the polar vortex via strat warming.

Now, the MJO looks to cycle back around to Indonesia. This suggests another round of MLB enhancement to come by mid-Feb. Potentially more strong wave breaking. So I can see where GFS is coming from with that second warming development.

In the meantime, we look to typical variation in jet meandering, to offer some most likely transitory cold snaps, which due to the Atlantic-side Arctic sea ice configuration may pack more of a punch than we’ve become used to this past decade. Main question is ‘direct hit, or glancing blow’. We know which one we tend to get...!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, DavidS said:

GFS is still showing the SPV getting moved around the ring by the warming, but  such is its strength this year it largely stands firm. Can a secondary warming land a knockout blow......

 

Hopefully the secondary warming will hit it so hard, it will still be out of action next winter!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

interesting the Met office model was mentioned watching the Met weather studio streaming live yesterday afternoon this question of strat warming was asked and the response was that there is between 15 and 20% chance of a SSW if I remember correctly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s game over. 

15EAF250-A166-42F1-BA33-C9D0F1832A47.thumb.png.d6a6f1c4c3d053058e4d101f3dbd4400.png
The latest GLOSEA run not only reduces the extent of weakening in early Feb but shows no sustained weakening whatsoever. 

GEFS have backed away from an SSW (unsurprisingly, strong negative bias beyond day 10) & the GFS is suggesting a return to an above average strength u-wind. 

Even if we see an SSW in late February (unlikely) it’ll be far too late for any real impact taking into account lag time.

No help from the vortex this winter. We’ll just have to hope for some favourable trop led patterns mid-late Feb. The first half looks distinctly zonal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Don't worry, one of the CFS members has the strongest reversal/early final warming on record 😀

u10serie200129.thumb.png.f515e52f15a96ddeb52625b44ec3e140.png

That's some change....from a downward plunge to zero, to now rebounding sharply above normal again. Strap yourselves in for winter 2019/20 zonality part 45 people...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...