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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

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6 minutes ago, essexweather said:

18Z UKMO actually shows snow falling into North Kent. While overall totals are less on this run, more in our region should see snow falling at some point

ukmo-1km.png

Luvly Jubly....:yahoo:. So why are the weather forecasts not reflecting this then? Still showing London at 7/8c!:cc_confused:

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Just now, snowray said:

Luvly Jubly....:yahoo:. So why are the weather forecasts not reflecting this then? Still showing London at 7/8c!:cc_confused:

The tv forecasts take some time to catch up 

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10 minutes ago, yamkin said:

A few years ago rain was forecast and snow started to fall and got heavier and caused chaos in the Croydon area

I remember that night, was that the Thames Snow Streamer where South London received a foot of snow in one night?

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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yup, which remember does run a long way out of London to the NW.

Very true... Still on a knife edge here. Thanks for the reply!

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5 minutes ago, snowking said:

Good to speak to you again! Hope all is well with you

I'm actually primarily based in Greenwich now - but hoping you guys get something nice and picturesque tomorrow. I'm not expecting all that much here sadly, I should have gone back and visited my folks this weekend!

Fingers crossed matey. Hope you are loving life down there (and earning GOOD money)

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13 minutes ago, yamkin said:

A few years ago rain was forecast and snow started to fall and got heavier and caused chaos in the Croydon area

I remember that all the buses were stuck on brighton rd between the flyover and bus station. It was nearly all busses lol. Bus bus oh a car bus bus bus car bus etc. Had to walk to the school and back. The kids enjoyed the hour walk home.

Edited by alexisj9

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Coldest period for ages with snow on the horizon and Im sat here eating ice cream

 

I need crumble and custard

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Had we been on a N/NE then i would have probably said yes to a split, it is hard popping out for 20 mins and seeing 3 pages on my return (still fun reading though), but on this occasion i really feel the info from my S/SW will be needed tonight and the early hours:) 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Really - the ecm has barely moved twenty miles south on its last three runs 

the other models have just played catch up

if anything I would expect a slight northward correction as much as I would further south 

Well I do recall times when they’ve been off despite very good consistency. Surely the system is coming into satellite imagery so one can start getting an idea. 

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still not told the wife and kids .....

and no one in the predicted snow zone is alllowed to unless the tv forecast shows it in which case you have to come clean 

Well done on not telling!

Posted on MOD but thought might be interesting in here - snow charts on ECM ensembles has a small cluster than stalls the front so far south that it's all snow even in Surrey and N Hants tomorrow morning (main cluster still in puts snow in advertised position of London up to Lincolnshire)

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We're now in the period where getting excited over where a line on a map may be drawn is largely irrelevant. Models shows the general area, not an exact it will/wont snow here depiction. Same with thunderstorms, a general area is given but some places will miss out entirely. The closer you are to the edge of a "line", the more you should expect to be disappointed if snow is what you want!

Edited by jamesbhx

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Does anyone know roughly what time the wet stuff will be arriving in this neck of the woods (be it rain/sleet/snow)?  Are we waking up to it or will it arrive at some point during tomorrow?

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the 18z could it keep dropping south over the day and bring us southerners snow???

 

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7 minutes ago, North London Hotspur said:

I remember that night, was that the Thames Snow Streamer where South London received a foot of snow in one night?

Nah i think it was a day time event the next year.

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35 minutes ago, essexweather said:

18Z UKMO actually shows snow falling into North Kent. While overall totals are less on this run, more in our region should see snow falling at some point

ukmo-1km.png

Boom keep it coming- & thats alligned to sea level - not up a kent mountain !

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11 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

It is meant to pivot and go through Norfolk. I think all this shifting south are the models working out the track but I think the met o warning this morning is where it is going to be. With a slight shift in either direction but a 20/30 miles max. They have had most in yellow warning including myself since Thursday with Peterborough only 25 miles above me on an amber. Then it changed this morning to include Cambridgeshire.  I might be wrong but I think the track will be the same almost as this ornings warning. The reason behind this is that they have been sitting on the fence before dishing out the warnings.    Unlike  in 2010 when I was issued heavy snow days before hand and 6 hours before the event I got nothing not even a flake London got dumped on.  I hate an easterly as it misses my location and it's bloody freezing cold and dry. I do better on a north north east. 

Yes thats interesting what your saying there, London/Essex and South of there do better from an easterly, in fact an easterly is the best set up, although it can be dry for all of us if HP dominates. Counties to the north all the way up to the Wash and Norfolk do better on a NEly, generally speaking because the 87 and 91 easterlies were good for all of us.

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@steve From what I have also seen, I think more eastern areas rather than Wales/Midlands based. Pure speculation and a see what happens scenario but hopefully more surprising than current warnings.

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6 minutes ago, snow raven said:

Does anyone know roughly what time the wet stuff will be arriving in this neck of the woods (be it rain/sleet/snow)?  Are we waking up to it or will it arrive at some point during tomorrow?

In the early hours 4-6am

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43 minutes ago, norfolksnow said:

I'm just saying in busy times as this,maybe a good idea?

we are about 150 miles from some posters in this thread 

not exactly close is it ?

Meteorologically I think you could make an argument for saying that East Anglia: Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex down to Kent are arguably quite distinct from Greater London/Oxfordshire/Surrey/Hampshire.

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