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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

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Temp 0 dp 0. Going the right way, but will it stay that way.

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2 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

So the snow chances have basically gone for tomorrow, at-least I can say I saw a lot of snow  today but sad the rain will wash it away.

I'm no professional and I'm scared of the same thing happening.

Last night was cool and the situation certainly developed nicely for us in the N w London and other areas when the BBC said we would be really windy and around 7c however when the Sat started showing the Low pressure not going in that direction surprises started popping up.

Although temps are a bit to high at the moment 

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1 minute ago, Swave Snow said:

I'm no professional and I'm scared of the same thing happening.

Last night was cool and the situation certainly developed nicely for us in the N w London and other areas when the BBC said we would be really windy and around 7c however when the Sat started showing the Low pressure not going in that direction surprises started popping up.

Although temps are a bit to high at the moment 

The bbc are still going for max temps of 2 degrees tomorrow so still dont know what to think. 

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Skies have cleared here and it's feeling very cold. The roads and pavements are going to be so dangerous tomorrow if the temperature drops further! Wonder if we'll see more snow? 

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still wondering If the lying snow will have any impact on tomorrows precipitation to lower the temperatures? 

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I really do not think tomorrow's event can be called. If they are saying "settling above 100m", then that is far too close to call. The difference between settling at 50m and 150m can be thrown out so very easily. Dew points and temperatures can't be confidently predicted to within 0.5 of a degree even 3 hours before the time, intensity on a front is a total pain to forecast. One thing you always hear again and again in a snow event is "I was expecting that!" or "Total letdown". I confidently predict between 0cm and 10cm of snow tomorrow for the South East!! 

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Must say not much has melted really. Car temp put it at about .5 to 1.5 all day here. Very pleased and surprised. Havent checked the mad thread yet. I am going in. Will report back in a minute 

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Some pretty heavy rain lurking off Brittany headed our way for tomorrow, seems further north than model progs, ARPEGE against radar for 20:00

euro_2000.thumb.png.dfa5089fb483202be2e4a033ae070556.pngoverview_008.thumb.jpg.7bd80eb86598b8189605418ee8352921.jpg

Edited by Nick F
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Just now, Nick F said:

Some pretty heavy rain lurking off Brittany headed our way for tomorrow, seems further north than model progs, ARPEGE against radar for 20:00

euro_2000.thumb.png.dfa5089fb483202be2e4a033ae070556.pngoverview_008.thumb.jpg.7bd80eb86598b8189605418ee8352921.jpg

could that fall as snow?

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Some pretty heavy rain lurking off Brittany headed our way for tomorrow, seems further north than model progs, ARPEGE against radar for 20:00

euro_2000.thumb.png.dfa5089fb483202be2e4a033ae070556.pngoverview_008.thumb.jpg.7bd80eb86598b8189605418ee8352921.jpg

Yes nick keeping a keen eye on the track of this storm...certainly looks further north as it makes inroads...and current track look like large swath southern/central england.

And some intense ppn being modeled.

V-intresting!

trans.png

Screenshot_2017-12-10-20-28-15.png

Edited by tight isobar
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1 minute ago, norfolksnow said:

could that fall as snow?

Some might over higher ground in the NW of our region, but i believe it's mostly likely to be rain for the SE.

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Just now, norfolksnow said:

could that fall as snow?

Most of us on here are hoping it does when it bumps into the cold air over the UK, though the strengthening NEly bringing higher DPs off the N Sea may make it too marginal in places at lower elevation - especially toward the east.

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1 minute ago, Ellozee said:

Some might over higher ground in the NW of our region, but i believe it's mostly likely to be rain for the SE.

Overheads-dependant...

But as we have seen today...

Suprise locations/ and marginality will be the order!

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Most of us on here are hoping it does when it bumps into the cold air over the UK, though the strengthening NEly bringing higher DPs off the N Sea may make it too marginal in places at lower elevation - especially toward the east.

I'm hoping intensity brings the line down.

Edited by alexisj9

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We're gonna see a surprise heavy snowfall with widespread accumulations of 5-10cm across the region.

Then we're going to wake up from our lovely dream of snow to the horrible sound of rain against the window.

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Just now, Nick F said:

Most of us on here are hoping it does when it bumps into the cold air over the UK, though the strengthening NEly bringing higher DPs off the N Sea may make it too marginal in places at lower elevation - especially toward the east.

Thanks Nick

Aso any thoughts of the northern extent of precip?

Thanks Jason

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Screenshot_2017-12-10-20-28-15.png

Just from a brief glance without looking more into the specifics, looks almost sting jet-esque

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ICON 18z has the low slightly further north (at midnight tonight)..

12z

ICOOPEU12_12_1.png

18z

ICOOPEU18_6_1.png

 

Edited by mulzy

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5 minutes ago, norfolksnow said:

Thanks Nick

Aso any thoughts of the northern extent of precip?

Thanks Jason

From the low over France, if GFS, ECMWF and UKMO are to be believed, mostly east of a line between Weymouth and The Wash.

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6 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Just from a brief glance without looking more into the specifics, looks almost sting jet-esque

No thank as I have a feeling this corner will be near the area a sting jet could effect unfortunately.

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Go home, MetO, you're drunk 😂

I'm pretty sure this sort of thing is against the Geneva Convention.

IMG_0517.PNG

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1 hour ago, shotski said:

Depends on if the schools are closed in our case. Apart from its work for me ☹️☹️

I Home Educate my kids so every day is a snow day if there's a chance of it, lol!!

Meto says sleet all day for Leatherhead but heavy snow all day for Epsom Downs - I live between the two so guess which way we'll be headed, lol! Or perhas Boxhill will be even better?!xx

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