SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Justin Miller]

38 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi Justin, you seem young! Welcome.

Unfortunately the back edge snow seems to have totally evaporated.

That’s not quite true. As shown by GFS 06z as it has done consecutively, snow showers towards our NW, working their way towards London area on a brisk NNW flow. It can be a good direction for the Chilterns. 

Yes that picture is from 2 years ago now, 16 and working full time now !!, anyway back to the topic, well that stream of snow showers, does look very exciting, I only said that about the N,wly as in my experience they usually make landfall from Liverpool area and by the time they reach London, they are just flurries, however well all have to keep an ? on the gfs and other models, not long now!!! Loving this winter so far, we’ve had more snow chances than the whole of last winter 

[Kent Blizzard]

2 hours ago, Dami said:

What some of you need to understand is the geography of where I live. I live in a Valley, I watch many many showers and storms break up before they even reach me, then re - built again. In fact a lot of weather just goes round me.  

In essence, I would get more excited over a possible weather front and a period of wintry weather than blink and miss showers, which often miss me. My Husband has seem more snow working in MK. And with that I mean it forecasted  on the day not a week away.

I think it's very self righteous to bang on what a computer thinks over experience and with my above point I shall only get excited if and when the snow falls, Not because 1 forecast gives me a snow symbol.   

Therefore seeing forecasts change from snow to sleet to rain to nothing with the temperatures dancing around it doesn't really do much for my confidence that I'm in a 'Sweet spot' If this week gives me something than fine I'll enjoy it.

If it doesn't at least I won't be kicking a box because I 'missed ' out.

Oh well, you could always do a snow dance round your hat and boots 

P.S Daniel* , Yamkin good point about the Cheshire Gap streamer, the Accumulated snow chart shows for Cheshire.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Southender]

We are the last stop on the Cheshire Gap steam train. So as mentioned above, it's not something that will usually deliver too much interest in our parts. But the odd shower of course cannot be ruled out.

If I lived somewhere like Chester/Wrexham/Shrewsbury/Telford/Crewe/Stoke locale I would be getting very excited indeed for the prospects later this week.

That said, plenty to keep our interests aroused around here. We may just have to be a little more patient...

Edited December 4, 2017 by Southender

[slater]

On 03/12/2017 at 13:04, bluearmy said:

If you're going to venture into the MOD thread without a hard hat slater then prepared to be banged about the head! 

Been far too much excitement in there without any decent model support within a reasonable timeframe. 

Haha ! Completely agree lol! 

[Kent Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Southender said:

We are the last stop on the Cheshire Gap steam train. So as mentioned above, it's not something that will usually deliver too much interest in our parts. But the odd shower of course cannot be ruled out.

If I lived somewhere like Chester/Wrexham/Shrewsbury/Telford/Crewe/Stoke locale I would be getting very excited indeed for the prospects later this week.

That said, plenty to keep our interests aroused around here. We may just have to be a little more patient...

Yep, very similar set-up to the one that gave them a decent snowfall around Christmas in 2004 if I remember rightly.

[yamkin]

A Very Good Forecast By Alex At The MetO

 

Edited December 4, 2017 by yamkin

[Justin Miller]

So guys, been working all day, what is the update for us in southern county’s, as in what days are we in for a bit of the white stuff 

 

 

•  

Edited December 4, 2017 by Justin Miller

[yamkin]

1 minute ago, Justin Miller said:

yes that that picture is from 2 years ago , 16 and working full time now !!, anyway back to the topic, well that stream of snow showers, does look very exciting, I only said that about the N,wly as in my experience they usually make landfall from Liverpool area and by the time they reach London, they are just flurries, however well all have to keep an ? on the gfs and other models, not long now!!! Loving this winter so far, we’ve had more snow chances than the whole of last winter 

 

 

•  

A Cheshire Gap Streamer can & has made it's way to London in the past with a few cm's

[Justin Miller]

7 minutes ago, yamkin said:

A Cheshire Gap Streamer can & has made it's way to London in the past with a few cm's

Sorry yamkin, I am new to this forum, I double posted this so sorry about that, and yes I understand that, and to be honest I favour towards that option, anything is possible, but we won’t know with higher confidence for a few days as of yet. 

 

However what I did want to ask was what days are we at risk in the London area for seeing the white stuff this week.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Justin Miller

[yamkin]

36 minutes ago, Justin Miller said:

Sorry yamkin, I am new to this forum, I double posted this so sorry about that, and yes I understand that, and to be honest I favour towards that option, anything is possible, but we won’t know with higher confidence for a few days as of yet. 

 

However what I did want to ask was what days are we at risk in the London area for seeing the white stuff this week.

Hi Justin, Welcome to the mad house!!! GFS shows Friday for snow at the moment, but I would wait until Wednesday to get a clearer picture on ppn, but even then we might have to hang on until Thursday when the colder air pushes down. 

Edited December 4, 2017 by yamkin

[Justin Miller]

8 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Hi Justin, Welcome to the mad house!!! GFS shows Friday for snow at the moment, but I would wait until Wednesday to get a clearer picture on ppn, but even then we might have to hang on until Thursday when the colder air pushes down. 

Ahhh certainly is a mad house haha! Yes it has changed since Saturday, the High in the Atlantic is pushing and nudging east evermore limiting precip over weekend, but Friday looks promising so far, shame the back edge snow posssibilty is diminished on Thursday, that’s the thing, we will only truly know 48-72 hours beforehand to have a good confidence on what’s to come. Thanks for the welcome, hope we will be hearing a lot of each other of the next months, with snow reports and forecasts !! 

[KDME]

Could that all translate to cold dry nothingness for us in the SE corner from this coming weekends northerly?

I hope for the sake of those on the Model thread that there is widespread snow or there may be suicides I fear ...

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Knew it would be busy with a run like the GFS 12z good grief, that's naughty 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

8 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Could that all translate to cold dry nothingness for us in the SE corner from this coming weekends northerly?

I hope for the sake of those on the Model thread that there is widespread snow or there may be suicides I fear ...

 

While the Cheshire gap is some 200 miles ish north, with the uppers predicted and the strength of the flow, with any troughs etc, it can deliver for the north of our region and sometimes the western areas depending on the direction. Just like a Thames streamer can go on way inland... 

[Captain Shortwave]

Lovely day here with unbroken sunshine and just a light north westerly breeze.

More cloud tomrrow and Wednesday before fronts clear south east and we get a pretty potent blast of arctic maritime air.

Friday and Saturday in particular look cold with temperatures only getting a couple of degree above freezing.

3-5C at best on Friday.

We need to see winds veer to the north to drive showers into East Anglia and Kent, hopefully we can as they would be falling primarily as snow given the potency of the cold air moving across us. Of course we could see a showery trough move through.

 

[tinybill]

all i can say after friday  is might  have to find me grit a snow shovel!!

[weathergeek]

Is it just me who feels that the snow chances just seem to be getting pushed back day by day?! Having said that, it is clear to see that the Northern Hemisphere set up hasn't been this good in years and cold seems to be the forecast for the foreseeable (with even the Meto extended stating similar!) so hopefully more chances to play for!

But I've just noticed that we were gonna have blizzards Thurs, then Friday and now it's Monday or Wed next week and I've seen so many winters where the chances always seem to stay around D8 but we never quite make it!

I have a feeling that we MUST SURELY get something at some point from this cold spell/winter??!!x

[Matty J]

5 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Is it just me who feels that the snow chances just seem to be getting pushed back day by day?! Having said that, it is clear to see that the Northern Hemisphere set up hasn't been this good in years and cold seems to be the forecast for the foreseeable (with even the Meto extended stating similar!) so hopefully more chances to play for!

But I've just noticed that we were gonna have blizzards Thurs, then Friday and now it's Monday or Wed next week and I've seen so many winters where the chances always seem to stay around D8 but we never quite make it!

I have a feeling that we MUST SURELY get something at some point from this cold spell/winter??!!x

100% agree with you here.

I'm honestly expecting absolutely ZILCH here in essex. The Mod thread 2 days ago there was talk of 10 inches+ for E/A and the S/E now theres talk of heavy cold rain and most snow charts seem to have dropped any form of accumulations for us down here at all.

We had a few flurries last week which was nice to see but this is looking like a damp squib in my  opinion

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Is it just me who feels that the snow chances just seem to be getting pushed back day by day?! Having said that, it is clear to see that the Northern Hemisphere set up hasn't been this good in years and cold seems to be the forecast for the foreseeable (with even the Meto extended stating similar!) so hopefully more chances to play for!

But I've just noticed that we were gonna have blizzards Thurs, then Friday and now it's Monday or Wed next week and I've seen so many winters where the chances always seem to stay around D8 but we never quite make it!

I have a feeling that we MUST SURELY get something at some point from this cold spell/winter??!!x

As long as it doesn't get pushed back to winter 2018/2019

[Southender]

Not seeing anything to float my boat yet snow wise. Things can and will change, but right now it looks a cold and wet/slushy end to the week in our region, whilst we watch Yorkshire north etc get buried in snow. Beyond that who knows, perhaps our turn...A huge amount of patience and prozac required as ever for us lot.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Southender

[Uxbridge90]

Looking forward to some cold weather, looks like it's going to be bitterly cold for a little while once Friday hits. Not so sure about our chances for snow but could be worse.

[JennyJane1]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

As long as it doesn't get pushed back to winter 2018/2019

Quick, Lassie, start dancing!

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Quick, Lassie, start dancing!

it looks on for sure

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Patience people will be the key. Just like the last cold spell last week. By the way how many years has it been you could say cold spell in November.. That was looking pretty dry to be fair and wasn't till a few days before we say hints at snow showers and just that happened I saw falling snow in Central London! 

Remember, get the cold in first, worry about the snow later. It can't snow without cold, it's a fundamental part of it. We struggle to predict snow 24 hours out let 3,5,7 days! 

Keep the faith my fellow snow starved southerns winter is coming (I hope) 

[Alpine glow]

I think for us it is a nowcast situation which is exciting in itself.  Ok, not as exciting as most of the Country but.. just looked in Model thread and Monday looks better for us