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12 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

That chart is for 50kt + winds.

 

Think you might be thinking of the Tropical wind chart?

145012.png

Seems to have moved more to the East, bad for my location as in it won't be as severe.

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Hello all :)

I happen to live in West Wales about 10mins inland from Freshwater West beach on the Pembrokeshire Coast. I am hoping to going down tomorrow afternoon to see how Freshwest is Taking on Ex-Ophelia.

I shall be approaching through Castlemartin and will park high on the road. 

High tide tomorrow is 16:51 and will be 6.42m. This normally would not cause any concern for the beach. 

'Magic Seaweed' surf forecast for tomorrow is waves of 5-8ft from 12 lunchtime with wind of 49mph rising to 16-24ft by 6pm with winds still 50mph. 

"If" the surge from Ex-Ophelia has any surge effect at all then it's tomorrow afternoon I would expect to see the waves rage... I shall not be parking in the main car parkas this is only approx 15-20ft higher than the beach and flat. Any storm surge should there could well flood the car park. 

I see there are a few other locals on here from my area all waiting with anticipation to see what will happen in our "neck of the woods" so to speak.

I noticed someone else was going to travel to Manorbier beach to view the waves. Manorbier beach is very narrow and quite low, as is the carpark although far enough away from the beach to stop any surge. If you are going to view from there you will need to use the coastal footpath to gain any height and I would recommend you take the right hand fork as you view the beach from the carpark, you can get a better height and view from there, although the path is very close to the sea and you may get some sea spray. 

I have had permission this year to visit the beach right next door to Freshwater West it's called Frainslake. Access is extremely limited as it part of a live firing range, but I was down there this morning taking pictures just to see if Ex-Ophelia has any impact. 

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44 minutes ago, crimsone said:

So, the BBC made their own graphic.

It's remarkably like the NHCs track forecast graphic, except much less useful. But it does tell us where Ireland, N. Ireland, and Scotland are, incase anybody needed to know.

Earlier the BBC article was still showing the track based on NOAA data from the 13th, so me and hubby ended up having an argument over the latest track projections. I won...

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2 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

 

I noticed someone else was going to travel to Manorbier beach to view the waves. Manorbier beach is very narrow and quite low, as is the carpark although far enough away from the beach to stop any surge. If you are going to view from there you will need to use the coastal footpath to gain any height and I would recommend you take the right hand fork as you view the beach from the carpark, you can get a better height and view from there, although the path is very close to the sea and you may get some sea spray. 

That's awesome, thank you for the local knowledge! Very narrow should force the waves together and up, amplifying the surf if anything, that will probably be my go-to place if I can find someone to come on the trip with me!

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40 minutes ago, crimsone said:

So, the BBC made their own graphic.

It's remarkably like the NHCs track forecast graphic, except much less useful. But it does tell us where Ireland, N. Ireland, and Scotland are, incase anybody needed to know.

They also refer to 'Ireland's Met Office'. They're called Met Eireann, guys, and you could at least also give them their proper title.

Earlier on they had the most basic detail about the warnings issued in the Republic of Ireland but I see they have updated that now. Obviously it's not the UK but given the number of Irish people in the UK (both in Britain and ROI nationals in NI) I think they should be giving more attention to the situation in the SW counties there. 

But I digress slightly, apologies.

 

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5 minutes ago, Longtimelurker said:

Seems to have moved more to the East, bad for my location as in it won't be as severe.

It has indeed moved to the east. The center is now forecasted to move right the way over the center of Ireland.

Though the NHC has still put a big fat white H over the southern tip of ireland.

I'm guessing it's due to a weakening of the high to the east of it? (haven't actually looked!) ... most of that guesswork is down to the observation that the kink has been removed from the forecast track that I'm presuming was down to a blocking ridge.

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I find myself wondering now, actually, whether that eastward shift of track could potentially push any extra water up beneath S. Wales.

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35 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Man, I wish I had the money and the time to travel to Cork.

The stronger winds will be in SE corner.  Get the ferry to Rosslare instead 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

The stronger winds will be in SE corner.  Get the ferry to Rosslare instead 

Too Late. Stena have already cancelled all crossings on that day

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4 minutes ago, J10 said:

Well blame the Government for that, not the employees.

Still a crass comment, and in high winds the concourse area can get somewhat dangerous.

I don't blame the employees at all... It's just an oft hated-on organisation for a wide variety of reasons. I honestly didn't even consider my comment in respect of people - if it was at all crass, then it was so for that reason alone, and for which I apologise.

Had no idea about the concourse mind.. but living in Llanelli as I did, I've actually been there, and yes, I can quite see why that might be. Parts of that place are quite probably like a giant wind tunnel in bad weather... let alone a historic storm.

Edited by crimsone

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Just now, crimsone said:

I don't blame the employees at all... It's just an oft hated-on organisation for a wide variety of reasons. I honestly didn't even consider my comment in respect of people - if it was at all crass, then it was so for that reason alone, and for which I apologise.

Had no idea about the concourse mind.. but living in Llanelli as I did, I've actually been there, and yes, I can quite see why that might be. Parts of that place are quite probably like a giant wind tunnel in bad weather.

Fair enough for that. Moving on.

I do think that any eastwards shift could be problematic, and could easily cause some real problems.

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It has moved east no doubt about it and will continue to do so just watch.

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3 minutes ago, J10 said:

Fair enough for that. Moving on.

I do think that any eastwards shift could be problematic, and could easily cause some real problems.

What is the origin of this recent proposed eastward shift?

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13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

That's awesome, thank you for the local knowledge! Very narrow should force the waves together and up, amplifying the surf if anything, that will probably be my go-to place if I can find someone to come on the trip with me!

Good luck Daniel :) the only thing I would suggest is to check the Pembrokeshire County Councils twitter feed in case there may be any trees down en-route. The road from Tenby to Manorbier is 'woody' in places. The tide times will be more or less the same as for Freshwest. 

I'm going for the Arena view I will have from Freshwest.. I just need to keep a check on wind speeds. I would add some pics for you if I can figure out how to do it. But you can get a street view of Freshwater West beach from google maps as the road runs right next to the beach :)

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7 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Too Late. Stena have already cancelled all crossings on that day

Oh I can imagine. You'd have needed to have gone this afternoon. I've been in the Irish sea in a storm before and it's not pleasant

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Is it because the ridge is forecast to weaken a little? That track has been kinked over Ireland for days, and all of a sudden it's straight!

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 16.38.03.png

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Fascinating reading this topic. With the very words from the NHC advising Irish residents needing to rush preparations to completion in order to conserve life and property, one gets the true sense of how real this situation is. Amazing and history making situation potentially. 

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Just now, knocker said:

What is the origin of this recent proposed eastward shift?

satellite images. it looks to be tracking slightly east of the predicted path. better tell sidney to hang on to his nuts! :shok:

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3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

satellite images. it looks to be tracking slightly east of the predicted path. better tell sidney to hang on to his nuts! :shok:

Ah right, just wondering as I haven't seen any updated upper air charts. Sidney's nuts are always well protected thanks very much

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

satellite images. it looks to be tracking slightly east of the predicted path. better tell sidney to hang on to his nuts! :shok:

He might be better of burying them deep :shok:

Edited by karlos1983

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5 minutes ago, south_holland said:

Fascinating reading this topic. With the very words from the NHC advising Irish residents needing to rush preparations to completion in order to conserve life and property, one gets the true sense of how real this situation is. Amazing and history making situation potentially. 

Indeed

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day.  Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


 

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

What is the origin of this recent proposed eastward shift?

NHC - a definite east shift in the latest update not minuscule either. 

image.thumb.jpeg.316faefdad84b91d5c77f0cb478dd38b.jpeg

 

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